Enab Baladi – Muwafaq al-Khouja

With the shift in the political scene in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, the alliances supporting the authorities there have changed. While Bashar al-Assad’s regime once relied on two main allies, Russia and Iran, many countries have restored their previously severed relations. With this diplomatic movement, questions arise about the nature of the relationship between these countries and the possibility of establishing diplomatic ties with Assad’s former friends.

Former allies of the regime

The previous Syrian regime relied in its war against the Syrians on two main allies, Russia and Iran. The relationship with the latter was built on political and sectarian dimensions, exemplified by the sending of militias with sectarian ties, such as Zeynabiyoun and Fatemiyoun, in addition to their support for other Iraqi and Lebanese factions, primarily Hezbollah.

As for Russia, the successor to the Soviet Union, its relationship with Syria predates the rule of Bashar’s father, Hafez al-Assad, yet it solidified during his regime and extended into the tenure of his son, Bashar al-Assad. This relationship was based primarily on political foundations with some economic aspects.

Russia: An old ally

The Russian position supporting the previous Syrian regime was clear from the onset of the Syrian revolution until its final days. Internally, it provided logistic and military support, while externally it took stances in international forums, especially its use of the veto multiple times in the Security Council in favor of Assad’s regime.

Russia’s support for al-Assad manifested in its direct military intervention on September 30, 2015, which was pivotal in the military conflict between the regime and the opposition, significantly affecting the control map.

Statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at that time indicated that the military intervention saved the previous regime, which was on the verge of collapsing.

Russia also participated in bombing sites that fell out of the previous regime’s control in favor of the opposition and utilized its military bases to support al-Assad’s allied forces.

From the new Syrian administration to Russia

The “Deterrence of Aggression,” operation launched by opposition factions united under the name of the Military Operations Administration on November 27, 2024, led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad on December 8 of that same year.

Since the start of the operation, Russia’s role has diminished significantly, and the military landscape on the opposition side has not witnessed a heavy presence of Russian aircraft, which was customary in past years.

On the third day of the “Deterrence of Aggression,” the Military Operations Administration sent a message to Russia, considering it a “potential partner” in building a bright future for Syria.

It urged Russia not to tie its interests to the Syrian regime or to Bashar al-Assad himself but rather with the Syrian people.

Within the first hours following the fall of the previous regime on December 8, 2024, Russia’s pro-regime stance shifted to a more balanced position, despite providing asylum to the ousted president, Bashar al-Assad.

For his part, Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the new Syria administration, displayed a more “diplomatic” stance towards Russia, stating he does not want Russia to exit in a manner that undermines its relationship with Syria.

In the latest official statements at the time of report publication, Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, stated that the new Syrian authorities were sending signals indicating their interest in maintaining the Russian presence in Syria.

Nebenzya added that the new authorities in Syria present themselves as those caring for the interests of the Syrians, considering them to act “with total efficiency,” according to reports from Russian media, including “RT.”

Dr. Nasr al-Youssef, an expert on Russian affairs, told Enab Baladi that Russia’s stance towards the new authorities is not as unfavorable as expected, especially since the current Damascus government overthrew Moscow’s ally, Bashar al-Assad.

He urged the new authorities to maintain Syrian-Russian relations and not to sever them to appease other parties, referring to the US, Western countries, and Ukraine.

He added that the new authorities should balance their relationships with all parties to serve Syrian interests, not to please one party at the expense of another.

The Russian affairs expert believes that Western countries are not pleased with Russia’s continued presence in Syria, especially regarding the ongoing strategic conflict.

Russian bases

Despite the reduction of its role following the fall of the previous regime, Russia still possesses two military bases in Syria, which are Hmeimim Airport and the Tartus Port in western Syria.

These bases are tied to contracts with the previous regime, yet the new Syrian administration has not taken steps regarding them.

The Russian affairs expert noted in his discussion with Enab Baladi that the Damascus caretaker government provided guarantees to avoid any harm to the Russian bases.

However, despite Russia’s assurance about the continued presence of its bases in Syria, al-Youssef believes they (the bases) will eventually fade away as they exist in an unwelcome environment.

Al-Youssef believes that Russia will not sacrifice these bases, as anyone could launch a small drone undetectable by radar, which could damage the Russian bases in Syria.

The Damascus caretaker government would not be able to prevent such incidents, and the Russian bases should withdraw “quietly and with dignity,” according to al-Youssef.

If Russia decides to withdraw its forces from Syria without reaching an agreement with the Damascus government regarding the continuous presence of these bases, Moscow would face logistical difficulties in their transportation, according to a British BBC report.

According to the report, these difficulties weaken Moscow’s negotiating position with the Damascus government if it insists on retaining its bases.

The report stated that transporting heavy tanks and military equipment requires planes such as the “An-124” (Antonov 124), one of the largest planes in the world, and the “IL-76” (Ilyushin 76) in a short timeframe.

The Iranian stance

Iran has been one of the main supporters of the ousted president Bashar al-Assad and had a military presence, which it does not recognize, labeling its personnel in Syria as advisors.

After Assad’s regime fell, Iran found itself outside the political scene in Syria, closing its embassies and consulates and ending its diplomatic representation, tying the resumption of relations to the performance of the new authorities.

On the first day after the fall of the Assad regime, it called for ending military hostilities, preventing “terrorist” actions, and beginning national dialogues involving all segments of Syrian society to form a comprehensive government representing all Syrian people.

In contrast to Moscow’s balanced position, Tehran has been more intense in its statements, yet it has at times moderated its rhetoric.

This moderation became apparent following angry reactions from the Arab League, which described Tehran’s statements as aiming to “aggravate the fall of Assad’s regime among the Syrian people.”

Iranian affairs researcher Mustafa al-Nuaimi believes that Iran will not remain idle after being ousted from Syria, but will seek to use all available means to destabilize the Syrian state.

After its influence in the region has waned, researcher al-Nuaimi believes that Iran will continue to attempt to destabilize Syria since the fall of its ally (Assad regime) represents a significant loss for a project spanning over 20 years.

Al-Nuaimi emphasized in a previous discussion with Enab Baladi that thwarting Iran’s schemes requires a concerted local, regional, and international effort to safeguard Syria and prevent any external interventions threatening its security and stability.

Among these means, it may resort to activating dormant militias to execute terrorist operations, similar to the sectarian bombings that occurred in Iraq aimed at stirring tensions among the components of the Syrian people. This situation provides Iran with an opportunity to intervene again by inserting armed elements and participating directly on the ground, according to al-Nuaimi.

The need for Russia and Iran

Basil Haffar, director of the Idrak Center for Strategic Studies, believes that the new Syrian administration cannot play the role of a state without engaging or building relations with parties like Russia and Iran.

Haffar told Enab Baladi that these relations will be characterized by shifts, with both positive and negative dimensions.

He noted that Iran is a regional power while Russia is a significant global force, arguing that their existence cannot be overlooked.

The researcher believes that this relationship may become a substantial topic of discussion, especially in the early period, until it takes a clearer form.

Haffar linked the nature of these relationships to how the new authorities handle these matters, showcasing their professionalism and skill, along with the standing of this authority or the authorities coming from the Syrian state.

New allies, Neutral countries

Since the fall of al-Assad, new allies have emerged on the political scene for the new authorities, including Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

During the first official visit by the new administration, Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin was present on Syrian territory, as reported by Enab Baladi‘s correspondent, followed by a visit from Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

Qatar was also among the first countries to send delegations to Damascus after the fall of the previous regime, reopening its embassy closed for 13 years. It had been known for supporting the opposition and was the only country that granted the Syrian embassy to the opposition’s Syrian National Coalition since 2013.

Haffar, the Idrak center director, noted that Turkey and Qatar’s stance was positive, and they were among the most interactive countries with the details of the situation in Syria in a noticeable way.

In this context, the diplomatic efforts of the foreign minister in the Damascus caretaker government, Asaad al-Shibani, also gained momentum, with his first visit abroad being to Saudi Arabia, accompanied by the Minister of Defense and the intelligence chief, indicating a potential role for Saudi Arabia in the future of “new Syria.”

Haffar believes that the supporting countries (Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia) have begun to adopt a practical approach alongside their political stances, anticipating that other countries in the region and the world will take similar steps, albeit to varying degrees or methods.

He justified his belief by asserting that it is in everyone’s interest for Syria to be stable, secure, and advanced, adding that this is the only way to stabilize the situation in the Middle East region.

On another level, American, European, and Arab delegations have been presented to the new authorities, with Shibani receiving phone calls from Arab countries like Yemen, Sudan, Oman, and Egypt, while other countries did not show a stance.

Haffar noted that the absence of clear media positions from some countries does not indicate their negative stance regarding what has occurred in Syria.

He believes that these countries are still building frameworks for relations with the new authorities, waiting for communication or the exchange of ideas and opinions to reveal the extent of interaction with Syria’s new reality.