Enab Baladi – Jana al-Issa

The Israeli army has recently intensified its strikes on sites in Syria, in a clear attempt to cut the arms supplies to the Lebanese Hezbollah.

Unlike its usual practice, Israel has confirmed a number of strikes carried out in the regime-controlled areas, the latest being in the capital Damascus, where it stated that it targeted interests belonging to the “Hezbollah Intelligence,” which is allied with Iran, according to the spokesperson for the Israeli army to the Arabic media, Avichai Adraee, on November 4.

The Syrian-Lebanese border has been subjected to repeated shelling by Israeli warplanes, in an effort to cut off Hezbollah’s supplies from Syria, and Israel has intensified its airstrikes in recent weeks, targeting both official and unofficial crossings between the two countries.

Along the border, there are illegal crossings used over the past years for smuggling people, goods, weapons, and Captagon pills, in addition to six legal crossings used for commercial transactions and civilian crossings.

In this context, Israel spoke of “imposing a military blockade on Lebanon” to prevent the smuggling of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah over land and air, according to the Times of Israel newspaper.

Iran persistently and officially insists on its continued presence in Syria, framing it as “advisory” at the request of the Syrian regime’s government. However, since its initial involvement in Syria, it has supported the regime politically, militarily, and economically, and has expanded its influence over the years in various military, economic, and cultural fields.

A desire to cooperate with al-Assad

On November 6, the American newspaper, The Washington Post, quoted sources stating that Israel and the United States are seeking to diminish Iran’s influence in Syria by cooperating with Syrian regime leader Bashar al-Assad.

According to the newspaper, which cited unnamed American and Israeli officials, both Israel and the US want to assist al-Assad in preventing Iran from continuing to supply Hezbollah via the Syrian border.

According to the officials’ statements, al-Assad might support the cessation of Iran’s supply to Hezbollah through Syria because he has grown displeased with the Iranian presence in the capital Damascus.

An Israeli official told the newspaper, “We hope that we can at least make Bashar al-Assad stop the weapons supply to Hezbollah via Syria.”

As of the writing of this report, there has been no comment regarding the veracity of this news from the Syrian regime, Israel, or the United States.

Iran is weaker in Syria

Lebanese security and military researcher Naji Malaeb remarked in a talk with Enab Baladi that Hezbollah and Iran are not the only foreign powers in Syria; there are also the Turks, Russians, and Americans. He believes that if Bashar al-Assad is trying to detach from Iran in Syria, he will have external forces to rely on.

The researcher stated that the issue of foreign presence in Syria was once decided in favor of Iran, but the entry of the Russians has made al-Assad’s remaining in power dependent on them. Therefore, the option of al-Assad abandoning Iran is not out of the question at this time.

Malaeb thinks that the return of US President Donald Trump will lead to significant changes in the region, as what was previously implemented on the ground was an Obama doctrine that permitted the expansion of Iranian influence in the region.

He believes that many indicators, such as the Arab rapprochement with the regime and the paths of rapprochement with the Turks, along with other files managed by Russia within this context, affirm that the regime is no longer under Iranian control, paving the way for the possibility of a coordinated Russian-American role in the future, or even a Turkish-Russian one. In turn, al-Assad will not stand against any international agreement that preserves his stay in power.

Various forms of Iranian presence in Syria exist, whether through officers referred to by Iran as “advisors,” who are responsible for managing Iran’s interests in the country, through training militias loyal to Iran in the region, or via militias formed from members of different nationalities bound together by religious allegiance.

These militias are distributed across the Syrian geography that is primarily controlled by the Syrian regime, and they hold specific areas of influence in eastern Syria, particularly in the cities of al-Bukamal and al-Mayadeen, in addition to other areas in several provinces, including rural Damascus, Daraa, Quneitra, Aleppo, Homs, and Hama.

Internationally impossible

The Syrian researcher specialized in military affairs, Nawar Shaaban, stated to Enab Baladi that Iranian influence and that of Hezbollah and their various tools within the regime began in 2013 and escalated in 2017. This presence, in its characteristics, did not pose a threat to Israeli national security except in certain areas or during specific events.

Shaaban believes this presence has allowed it to extend, as its nature has changed from security and military into various soft tools. However, in one way or another, it has managed to infiltrate the security system of the regime.

But since October 2023, the Syrian geography has turned into an operations room for Iran and Hezbollah. During the escalation against Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes targeted tunnels, smuggling points, river bridges, weapons depots, and figures related to Iran and the party within Syria.

Based on these data, researcher Nawar Shaaban believes that the Syrian regime does not have the capability to prevent Iranian and Hezbollah movements in Syria, reasoning that this influence is the result of everything that occurred before October 2023, including how the Iranian presence was handled by international powers.

Shaaban argued that even if the regime desires to engage in an international agreement to stop Iranian expansion or presence and distance it from its areas, it lacks the tools to offer in this context. For instance, it might be asked for intelligence cooperation, but Israel does not need this information because its intelligence operates effectively as it is.

The researcher explained the regime’s stance on allowing Iran and Hezbollah to use the Syrian geography so far is due to two factors: first, its inability to prevent them from doing so, and second, the lack of desire for them to stop or reduce their roles in the region.

No complete separation

Bashar al-Assad will not abandon his relationship with Iran, which has helped him survive the war, but on the other hand, he “does not want the Iranians to drag him into a confrontation with Israel,” according to Professor Eyal Zisser, Vice President of Tel Aviv University and Head of the Contemporary Middle East History Department there.

Zisser stated in an interview published by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) that al-Assad might welcome imposing restrictions on Iranian influence within Syria, as a prominent Iranian presence could lead to Israeli attacks on his regime. While al-Assad might proceed with reducing Iranian presence in Syria, it is unlikely that he will completely separate from Tehran.

Between mid-2023 and 2024, the number of Iranian military sites in Syria witnessed a limited decrease from 570 to 529, according to the Jusoor Center for Studies. However, Iran remains the country with the largest military presence in Syria compared to other foreign forces.

To date, Tehran has not used Syria directly in attacks against Israel, unlike the southern front in Lebanon or through long-range drone strikes by militias it supports in Iraq; clashes in Syria have been limited to skirmishes and a small number of suicide drones.