Video clips published by military accounts showed advancement of the factions of the Syrian National Army (SNA) participating in the “Dawn of Freedom” operations room to new points on the Tishrin Dam axis in eastern Aleppo countryside.

The points that were mentioned on Sunday, January 19, were reportedly seized from the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) around the dam, which include the al-Atshana mountains, Shash al-Bubna, and the villages of al-Tilal and Hajj Hussein, with reports of dozens of SDF fighters being killed.

On the other hand, the SDF claims they thwarted the attacks and were able to kill dozens of SNA fighters.

Slow progress

The attempt to advance to the Tishrin Dam and take control of it, thereby expelling the SDF from the western side of the Euphrates River, began since the launch of the “Dawn of Freedom” operations against the SDF and the ousted Bashar al-Assad regime on November 30, 2024.

The factions managed to seize several cities within days, including Manbij and Tal Rifat, but their advance stalled on the Tishrin Dam axis.

The United States reiterated several statements since December 12, 2024, regarding the continuation of the ceasefire, but Turkey rejected the ceasefire, and the factions supported by it continued their assaults.

Meanwhile, the Military Operations Administration linked to the Damascus caretaker government had yet to participate in operations against the SDF, with ongoing negotiations that have not reached a consensual formula.

The SDF daily reports thwarting the advance attempts of the SNA and the killing of many of its fighters on this axis, while the SNA only mentions shelling operations and advance attempts.

An important battle

Osama Sheikh Ali, a researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, told Enab Baladi that the Tishrin Dam battle is significant for the SDF, due to the importance of the dam in generating electricity and water supplies; losing the area means that Turkey would control water and electricity in a large part of the SDF-controlled areas.

This would give Turkey the ability to blackmail the SDF and put pressure on it in negotiation files, which is why they are trying to maintain the dam.

Additionally, the dam area is close to critical zones for the SDF, especially the Ayn al-Arab/Kobani area; they understand that the SNA and Turkey have their eyes on Kobani to link their territories east and west of the Euphrates.

The battles of the Tishrin Dam are a continuation of the battle for control over the city of Manbij in eastern Aleppo, and controlling it would allow the SNA access to a new section of the Euphrates River, which lies south of the city of Jarablus that is under SNA control.

Ayn al-Arab separates the territories controlled by the SNA known as the Peace Spring area, which includes the cities of Tal Abyad north of Raqqa and Ras al-Ain northwest of al-Hasakah, from the rest of its controlled areas in the eastern and northern Aleppo countryside.

Ayn al-Arab serves as a symbolic city for the SDF and the Kurds in general, due to military operations that led to the expulsion of the Islamic State group from the city between September 2014 and March 2015, culminating in the Islamic State’s removal from the area.

A pressure tool

Researcher Osama Sheikh Ali clarified that the negotiation process is ongoing; what we are witnessing now are not wide and open military battles, but rather skirmishes and pressure tools to expedite negotiation processes (still in a phase of pressure and counter-pressure in the negotiation process).

The American mediator leading negotiations with Turkey plays a role in continuing this path (the negotiating process) and delaying any forthcoming military operations, stating that negotiations “will continue at least in this phase, and I do not expect a large or wide battle in northeastern Syria at this stage until the negotiation file is definitively resolved,” according to Sheikh Ali.

The researcher pointed out that skirmishes might erupt in other areas like Deir Ezzor, Ras al-Ain, and Tal Abyad.

On December 12, 2024, the “Dawn of Freedom” operations room announced a ceasefire in the Manbij area and its outskirts until the 16th of the same month to allow for humanitarian and security understandings to be implemented.

The United States announced the extension and continuation of the ceasefire and that it was working to monitor it multiple times, but Turkey announced its rejection of the ceasefire.

Earlier, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated in a press conference that the US “will strive to extend this ceasefire as much as possible in the future.”

On December 19, 2024, the Turkish Ministry of Defense announced that it had not agreed to any ceasefire operations with the SDF. The Turkish Anadolu Agency then reported the ministry’s statement, which mentioned, “It is out of the question for us to meet any terrorist organization; we think that this was just a slip of the tongue,” referring to the US announcement of a ceasefire between Turkey and the SDF.

Negotiations with Damascus

Simultaneously with the ongoing clashes at the Tishrin Dam, the SDF is engaged in negotiations with the Damascus caretaker government to reach a mutual understanding. However, negotiations are being obstructed by the SDF’s condition to maintain a military bloc within the new army, which the new administration rejects.

The leader of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, in an interview with the Saudi al-Arabiya al-Hadath channel on Sunday, January 19, stated that the SDF was not part of the dialogue between the Ministry of Defense and the opposition factions, noting that he had not received an invitation to the meeting concerning the integration of factions into the Ministry of Defense.

He added that his forces had not decided to surrender their weapons or dissolve themselves but wanted to engage in a future Syrian army, warning that any route other than negotiation regarding the integration of forces would lead to “significant problems,” as he expressed.

Abdi’s stance on integration with the Syrian army has changed recently; he had previously expressed his faction’s willingness to dissolve and integrate into the Syrian army, but later stated that he agreed to integrate into the ministry as a military bloc—not as individuals.

The head of the new Syrian administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, conditioned the establishment of fundamental rules to solve the existing issues in northeastern Syria, which include:

• No division within Syria in any form, even if in a federal manner.
• The exit of foreign militants who are causing issues for neighboring countries.
• Arms should be restricted to the state only.