The US dollar rose by about 300 Syrian pounds on Monday, October 6, reaching 11,600 pounds on the black market, according to the SP Today (Syrian Pound Today) website.
Meanwhile, the official rate set by the Central Bank of Syria stood at 11,000 pounds per US dollar.

Gold prices also rose by 15,000 Syrian pounds, with one gram of 21-karat gold selling for about 1.29 million pounds (around $110), while 18-karat gold reached roughly 1.1 million pounds, according to the Damascus Jewelers Syndicate’s daily bulletin.

Reasons Behind the Rise

Dr. Abdulrahman Mohammed, a professor at the Faculty of Economics at Hama University (in central Syria), told Enab Baladi that the rise in the dollar and gold prices stems from several factors:

1. Dollar shortage in local markets:
   The decline in foreign currency inflows due to sanctions, weak exports, and the absence of foreign investment has increased demand for the dollar while limiting supply.

2. Global and domestic inflation:
   Rising inflation worldwide, driven by economic and geopolitical crises such at he Russia–Ukraine war, has led investors to seek gold as a safe haven, driving its price up.

3. Monetary policies:
   Lower global interest rates on the dollar have boosted gold’s appeal as an investment alternative, contributing to higher prices.

4. Parallel market speculation:
   The widening gap between the official and black-market exchange rates encourages speculation, further accelerating price increases.

Mohammed predicted that the dollar could exceed 12,000 Syrian pounds soon if several factors persist:

– Continued dollar scarcity due to the absence of solutions to boost foreign currency inflows.
– Increased demand for the dollar driven by heavy reliance on imports.
– Ongoing domestic inflation, coupled with weak monetary policy tools.

Shrinking Purchasing Power

Mohammed explained that the dollar’s rise directly undermines Syrians’ purchasing power, as most goods are priced in or tied to the dollar. “This raises the cost of living and leads to hyperinflation, where prices rise faster than wages,” he said.
He added that as the pound’s value erodes, citizens’ savings lose value, prompting more people to hold dollars or gold as stores of value.

Ineffective Monetary Policy

The professor attributed the widening gap between the official and black-market rates to “ineffective monetary policies.”
Setting an artificially low official rate, he said, fails to reflect economic reality and fuels a thriving parallel market.
Limited dollar availability in official channels pushes traders and importers to rely on the black market, while capital controls and restrictions on foreign transfers further deepen the divide.

Gold prices, he added, are closely linked to the dollar: “Any local increase in the dollar’s value is mirrored by gold, as investors and citizens alike turn to both as safe havens amid the pound’s depreciation.”

Possible Solutions

To curb the currency’s decline, Mohammed called for comprehensive economic reforms: stimulating domestic production, attracting investment, and adopting more flexible and transparent monetary policies.

He concluded that the simultaneous rise in gold and dollar prices reflects the depth of Syria’s economic crisis, from foreign currency shortages to inflation and weak monetary governance.

Globally, gold approached a new record of nearly $4,000 per ounce at the start of the week, gaining 1.5% to $3,945 per ounce, according to the Asharq Business website. The surge followed increased demand for safe assets amid the ongoing US federal government shutdown, which delayed the release of key employment data originally scheduled for October 3.