Enab Baladi – Amir Huquq

Syrian markets have recently witnessed an abundance of Turkish products, especially since the fall of the Assad regime and the adoption of a free-market policy by the new government. This has limited the reach and competitiveness of Syrian-made products, given the lower prices of Turkish goods.

Turkish imports to Syria include industrial equipment not produced locally in sufficient quantities or at competitive quality, along with agricultural and health products essential to ensuring food and health security.

Experts warn that relying entirely on imports and opening the market to Turkish goods without protective measures threatens small businesses in the absence of sufficient government support, while also negatively affecting the trade balance between the two countries.

On August 27, Mustafa Gültepe, head of the Turkish Exporters Assembly, said that the body expects trade volume between Syria and Turkey to exceed $3 billion in the near future.

Jalal Kadooglu, head of the Syria Committee within the Turkish Exporters Assembly, confirmed that Turkish exports to Syria had risen by 49.3%, surpassing $1.2 billion in the first seven months of this year. He added, in a statement carried by Turkey’s Anadolu Agency on August 14, that exports are expected to exceed $2 billion by the end of the year, given the current level of demand.

Structural transformation

Economists view the surge in Turkish exports as excessive, describing it as a clear threat to Syrian producers and the Syrian trade balance.

Economist and banking expert Dr. Ibrahim Qushji told Enab Baladi that the rise in Turkish exports to Syria reflects not just trade exchange but a structural shift in the Syrian economy.

He explained that the economy has become heavily reliant on imports to secure production requirements, from raw materials and industrial equipment to spare parts and software.

According to Dr. Qushji , Turkish imports are vital for the Syrian economy as they include:

• Industrial essentials and equipment such as machinery, spare parts, construction materials, cement, glass, ceramics, metals, and electrical appliances, which are not produced locally in sufficient quantities or quality.

• Agricultural and health inputs, with Turkey also exporting fertilizers, agricultural machinery, and medical supplies that are key to ensuring food and health security.

Qushji believes that if properly organized within a productive partnership framework, such imports could help restart Syrian industries and improve local production quality.

Lack of profit-sharing and government support

Economist Mohammed al-Hallak noted that Turkish exports benefit from about 15% in subsidies, while Syrian goods lack such support. As a result, the trade balance does not allow for mutually profitable exchange.

Turkish goods are widely available in Syrian markets at lower prices than local products, undermining the latter’s competitiveness.

At the beginning of this year, Ibrahim Fouad Ozgurekci, head of the Turkish-Syrian Business Council, said that Turkey aims to raise bilateral trade to $10 billion in the medium term.

The steady influx of Turkish products, ranging from food items such as basic supplies, meat, and canned goods, to industrial goods including clothing, glassware, and industrial machinery, has amounted to what experts describe as an ‘invasion’ of the Syrian market.

Dr. Qushji summarized the impact of imports on local production and Syrian industries in two key points:

• Dual dependence: Syrian producers not only face competition from finished Turkish goods but also depend on Turkish imports for production inputs, leaving them vulnerable to price fluctuations and Turkish trade policies.

• Threat to small businesses: Higher production costs for local goods compared to lower-cost Turkish products place Syrian enterprises in a weak position, especially without adequate government support.

He added that growth potential exists if imports are transformed into production tools rather than consumed as finished goods, thereby raising the Syrian industry’s efficiency.

Al-Hallak stressed that Syria is a country with agricultural, industrial, and commercial potential, making trade central. Farmers need seeds, products, and tools, while manufacturers need raw materials. However, this should not translate into reliance on importing ready-made goods sold at lower prices than domestic ones, highlighting the urgent need to support local products to ensure competitiveness.

Trade deficit

Dr. Qushji said imports have worsened Syria’s trade and payments balance, with the trade deficit exceeding 17 trillion Syrian pounds, around $1.56 billion at the parallel market rate. He warned that continued imports without parallel growth in exports will deepen this deficit.

The growing import bill also strains the balance of payments, as it depletes foreign reserves and increases reliance on remittances or international aid. Qushji argued that imports should be part of a production-oriented strategy rather than purely for consumption, alongside boosting Syrian exports to Turkey and other markets.

Demands of Syrian producers

Facing the economic and trade challenges posed by Turkish products, Syrian producers are under pressure to compete. Dr. Qushji outlined several priorities to protect and develop local industries:

• Smart protection measures through tariffs on Turkish goods with local substitutes, while keeping vital production imports tax-free.

• Direct support with subsidized loans, reduced taxes, and easier access to production inputs.

• External promotion by opening new markets for Syrian products through trade agreements and international expos.

• Establishing industrial zones with local and international partnerships and integrated infrastructure.

• Incentivizing local investment through lower taxes, simpler procedures, and support for innovation.

• Business environment reforms by combating corruption, simplifying procedures, and providing a stable legal framework.

• Targeted protective policies to prevent import dumping and support domestic production through directed government aid.

Increasing tax revenues

Al-Hallak added that reducing production and manufacturing costs would increase income through job creation, while raising tax revenues, one of the Syrian state’s most important pillars for securing balanced revenues and financing public expenditure.

At the same time, customs duties on Turkish goods should be raised to make them 5–10% more expensive, while reassessing costs and burdens to strengthen Syrian producers’ ability to expand production and exports.

A previous Enab Baladi report noted that shifting to a free-market economy requires more than removing state restrictions. It requires an integrated environment that protects competition. While tax exemptions for local production could stimulate markets, without a clear plan, they could become a financial burden on the state.

Experts also called for some degree of directed economic management by the government, especially given today’s low income levels.

According to Turkey’s statistical office, Turkish exports to Syria amounted to $2.2 billion last year, while imports from Syria reached $437 million. In December 2024 alone, Syrian imports from Turkey stood at $233.7 million, about a quarter of a billion dollars, the highest monthly figure in a decade.