Enab Baladi – Hussam al-Mahmoud

Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, Turkey has continuously strengthened its relations with the new Syrian administration on multiple fronts.

In addition to the reciprocal diplomatic visits between the two parties, the latest being the transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to Ankara and his meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on February 4, there are also visits by economic delegations.

Alongside politics and economics, military cooperation between the two sides is expressed clearly and deeply through Turkey’s intention to establish military bases in Syria, in light of security and political challenges that still strongly impose themselves in the Syrian arena.

On February 4, Reuters reported that among the topics discussed between Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, were talks about a mutual defense agreement that includes the establishment of Turkish air bases in central Syria and the training of the new Syrian army.

According to the agency, the agreement would allow Turkey to establish new air bases in Syria and use Syrian airspace for military purposes, in addition to its role in training the new Syrian forces.

An intelligence official from the region, a Syrian security official, and a foreign security source residing in Damascus stated that the discussions include establishing two Turkish bases in the Syrian desert.

A Syrian presidential official told Reuters before the meeting of the two presidents that al-Sharaa would discuss with Erdoğan “training the new Syrian army, in addition to new deployment areas and cooperation,” without specifying the locations of the deployment.

After the meeting, the Turkish and Syrian presidents made statements during a joint press conference, in which Erdoğan expressed Ankara’s support for Damascus in facing what he termed “combating all forms of terrorism,” referring to the Islamic State group and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), in reference to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

He mentioned that through solidarity between Syria and Turkey, the two countries would ensure a “terrorism-free” environment in the shared geography, emphasizing the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity and unity.

Erdoğan also announced his country’s intention to elevate Turkish-Syrian relations to a strategic level and to intensify meetings and visits between the two sides, while al-Sharaa affirmed the transformation of what he described as brotherly relations into deep strategic partnerships in all fields.

These developments and the talk of establishing military bases on Syrian territory did not stop there, following the first official visit of a Syrian president to Turkey in over 14 years. On February 6, the Turkish Ministry of Defense revealed a roadmap to enhance the capabilities of the Syrian army.

The Anadolu Agency reported from the ministry that the joint roadmap with the new Syrian government came in line with its recent demands and tangible steps would be taken.

This discourse was not met with an official Syrian confirmation or denial at the time, but Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra stated in an interview with the American newspaper The Washington Post that the government in Damascus is also negotiating the status of American and Turkish military bases in Syria, indicating that new military agreements with Ankara may include a reduction or “redistribution” of Turkish forces in the country.

A complex and threatening field reality

The anticipated Turkish bases will be established in a military and security field complex and fraught with challenges inherited by the new administration from the ousted regime, as one of many complex issues accumulated over 14 years before its downfall. In northeastern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which serves as an armed wing of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), are still in negotiations with the new Syrian administration to incorporate this military entity into the new Syrian army.

At the same time, Ankara emphasizes its rejection of threats from the PKK and the People’s Protection Units (YPG), alluding to potential military operations against the YPG, which Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed on January 10.

Fidan stated that Turkey’s conditions are clear to avoid military action, which include the complete withdrawal of the PKK leadership and cadres from Syria, “however, we do not see any intentions or readiness to achieve this,” adding that “the terrorists coming from other countries must also leave Syria,” noting that his country is closely monitoring the situation.

In northeastern Syria, the United States also continues to maintain military presence, which is rumored to potentially end within months, following years of its military involvement to combat the Islamic State group, as officially stated, within the framework of the International Coalition Forces.

The Islamic State had sent threat messages to the Damascus government last January, in the event it applied laws and treaties of the United Nations regarding peace and war, hinting at a danger that the Syrian Defense Minister did not deny in a previous interview with Al-Araby television when he spoke about attempts to undermine it without delving into details.

Meanwhile, in southern Syria, Israeli occupation forces continue to intrude on land, violating the disengagement agreement established in 1974, making Syrian territory a stage for foreign forces whose presence poses a threat to the safety and unity of Syrian territories.

Turkish messages and important role

Military analyst Captain Tarek Haj Bakri explained to Enab Baladi that the sovereignty of Syrian territory cannot be violated; this is a sovereign principle. He pointed out that all countries that rely on a volunteer army allow the establishment of military bases for other countries on their territory, as long as this presence does not interfere with the sovereignty or internal affairs of the host state.

Haj Bakri ruled out the establishment of new Turkish military bases in Syria, suggesting instead a redistribution and redeployment of existing Turkish bases in northwestern Syria, confining them to specific locations. He indicated that the establishment of bases requires an agreement that allows the host country to assert its presence in a way that safeguards its national security and political and economic interests.

There may be an interest for the host state to have non-interfering foreign forces on its territory, deriving strength and protection from them in the face of international threats, considering that Syria is a battlefield and holds significant geopolitical, political, and economic importance. This necessitates a strong country to protect it from foreign ambitions, especially with the presence of Russian and American forces.

The military analyst considered that the presence of Turkish forces in Syria is primarily directed against the PKK and the SDF, which are trying to achieve a special status in Syria, a matter that contradicts the interests of both Ankara and Damascus. It is in Turkey’s interest to prevent the emergence of a racially defined entity, as it sees this as a threat to its national security.

These messages may be directed at the Russians, Israelis, and Americans, indicating that Ankara will not allow any further interference in Syria, as part of a moral and military support strategy for the new government in Damascus.

Following the visit of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov to Damascus at the end of January, during which he met with Syrian officials to discuss a number of files, including the two Russian bases on Syrian territory, the Kremlin stated on February 3 that Russia would continue dialogue with the new Syrian authorities regarding all issues, including agreements about its military bases in Syria.

On his part, the Syrian Minister of Defense recently expressed readiness to allow Russia to maintain its air and naval bases along the Mediterranean coast, as long as any agreement with the Kremlin serves Damascus’s interests, noting that the issue of the United States maintaining its military presence in northeastern Syria is “under negotiation.”

International relations researcher Mahmoud Alloush explained to Enab Baladi that defense cooperation with Turkey is of significant importance for the new Syrian administration on several levels. Turkey is a guarantor of maintaining the unity of Syrian territory, in addition to the intersection of interests with Damascus regarding the undermining of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) project. There is also a potential important role for Turkey in rehabilitating, training, and possibly arming the new Syrian army.

According to Alloush, Turkish bases could assist Syria in defending itself, particularly against significant external challenges, especially at this time when the military capabilities of the Syrian state are severely weakened, and there are external parties, including Israel, attempting to exploit this situation to achieve their goals and expansionist policy in Syria.

The strategic partnership between Turkey and Syria is a natural result of geopolitical considerations and Turkey’s relationship with the Syrian revolution over the past years. This partnership is not so much a choice for Damascus as it is a necessity, as Turkey possesses essential components for Syria at this juncture. The relationship between Turkey and Syria does not pressure Damascus regarding its geopolitical choices and internal relations, according to the researcher.

Alloush stated that the Syrian government seeks to demonstrate that the relationship with Turkey is of great importance for the new Syria, while trying to find a balance in external partnerships, specifically between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, following two consecutive visits he made to these countries. This reflects interest in these two powers and a desire for regional support for the new administration, as well as achieving a balance in partnership with Riyadh and Ankara.

Last week, the Syrian president visited Saudi Arabia at the head of a high-level delegation, and the visit lasted for two days, the same duration as his previous visit to Ankara, which followed his trip to Saudi Arabia.