Enab Baladi – Nouran al-Samman

As the month of Ramadan approaches, economic pressures are increasing on Syrian families, who are already suffering from weak purchasing power and liquidity shortages, amidst a rapid inflation wave in the Syrian markets. Although the month usually witnesses an increase in demand for food products, an economic expert sees that the current economic crisis has clearly reflected on consumption patterns, as consumption rates have declined, with spending limited to necessities only.

Markets and prices before Ramadan

Prices of food products witnessed a slight decrease after a severe price hike; however, they “remain unstable,” according to Muhammad Abdul Hakim Salman, a retail grocery store owner in rural Damascus, in an interview with Enab Baladi.

According to Enab Baladi‘s monitoring of the prices of some essential goods in the capital, Damascus, the price of sugar has decreased from 18,000 Syrian pounds (1.8 USD) to 8,000 Syrian pounds (0.8 USD), while the price of rice is about 10,000 pounds per kilogram (1 USD), down from 16,000 pounds (approximately 1.6 USD) during the time of the previous Syrian regime.

As for vegetable oil, it has decreased to 17,000 pounds per liter (1.7 USD), down from 25,000 pounds (approximately 2.5 USD).

According to reports from families in Damascus to Enab Baladi, the average cost of an Iftar meal for a small family during Ramadan is estimated at around 150,000 Syrian pounds (approximately 15 USD), varying from family to family.

According to a report issued by the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies, the prices of goods and foodstuffs have decreased in most areas of Syria, compared to what they were during the days of the fallen regime. This decline is attributed to the decrease in the exchange rate of the dollar, the removal of security barriers that imposed taxes on goods, and the entry of products from neighboring countries such as Turkey and Jordan.

The report noted the existence of price disparities for some goods between provinces, depending on supply and demand, the level of local or foreign competition, in addition to the government following a free-market policy without any intervention to regulate prices.

This was agreed upon by academic and economic expert Firas Shaabo, who clarified that government price regulation is almost “weak,” due to the adoption of free-market policies that do not constrain prices, allowing traders to monopolize and raise prices without actual supervision.

A free-market economy is defined as a system based on individuals’ freedom in any economic activity, built on private ownership of the means of production.

Its main pillars are supply and demand, which control prices and generate free competition without state influence. The role of the state in this system lies in organizing the economic trajectory and its momentum.

Economic impacts of the month of Ramadan

Economic expert Shaabo believes that markets usually experience a natural rise in demand during Ramadan; however, the economic crisis has exacerbated conditions. The country is suffering from inflation, weak purchasing power, and cash shortages.

The rise in transportation costs due to the liberalization of fuel prices has created additional burdens for citizens, forcing some employees to spend a significant portion of their salaries just on transportation, thereby weakening their ability to meet basic needs, according to Shaabo.

Despite the announcement by the interim Damascus government to raise salaries by 400% last January, the value of salaries remains far below the average needs of a family, which has approached ten million Syrian pounds.

Before the undelivered decision, the minimum wage in Syria was 278,910 Syrian pounds (27.89 USD), while the lowest salary for employees after the recent increase reached 1,200,000 Syrian pounds (120 USD).

In 2024, the average cost of living for a Syrian family of five, according to the kassioun Index for the Cost of Living, exceeded 14,500,000 Syrian pounds, while the minimum living costs approached about 9,100,000 Syrian pounds, illustrating the vast gap between wages and the continuously rising average cost of living.

Monetary policies between inflation and recession

Shaabo pointed out that the Central Bank of Syria (CBS) has adopted a policy of reducing liquidity in the market to curb inflation; however, this policy has affected general demand and led to decreased consumption.

The economic expert noted that reducing liquidity could contribute to mitigating price increases, as controlling liquidity results in reduced inflation; however, he emphasized the necessity of controlling the exchange rate to prevent fluctuations that traders and influential players in the market exploit.

He also considered that the current monetary policy is “ineffective” due to weak local production and the near-total reliance on imports, especially with the influx of Turkish goods into Syrian markets.

He clarified that the market will remain hostage to fluctuations in the exchange rate and currency availability, noting that transfers from Syrians abroad and financial assistance, along with the influx of incoming individuals, would lead to a significant inflow of foreign currencies into the country, making the exchange rate vulnerable to manipulation and instability.

It was also mentioned that providing food aid and direct government support to families could ease the crisis’s burden; however, the government’s ability to do so remains limited due to resource shortages and widespread corruption in the market, according to Shaabo.

He confirmed that the purchasing power of Syrians will reach its lowest levels, making solutions limited to providing only essential assistance.

According to a report issued by the Islamic Relief organization on February 17, more than 15 million people need humanitarian assistance to survive.

More than 90% of Syrian families live below the poverty line, while at least 13 million people (more than half the population) suffer from the inability to access sufficient food or afford its costs, according to a report by Human Rights Watch (HRW).

Moreover, 16.5 million people need humanitarian assistance to meet their basic needs.

Needs assessment in Syria

A needs assessment for Syria following the regime’s fall on December 8, 2024, showed that 82% of communities in Syria do not have their income covering living costs, and 64% reported a lack of job opportunities, while 56% of communities confirmed a decline in demand for workers.

The assessment was conducted between December 23, 2024, and January 2, 2025, marking the first multi-sectoral assessment of Syria as a whole since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Regarding humanitarian needs, 49% of communities have severe needs, and 36% have high needs, indicating that living conditions remain poor.

The proportion of individuals in communities unable to access humanitarian assistance reached 86%.

According to the latest statistics from the Central Bureau of Statistics in 2022, the unemployment rate in Syria stood at 26% of the total population.

For his part, economic expert Firas Shaabo confirmed that the purchasing power of Syrians will be significantly affected during the month of Ramadan, making living conditions more challenging, especially with increased spending on food products against weak income.

He noted that some families have lost their livelihoods due to the closure of several companies and factories, leading to decreased demand for luxury goods, including meat, and focusing on purchasing only essentials, resulting in the spread of a family rationing system.

Shaabo explained that many families resort to reducing their daily consumption or shopping from aid and food assistance markets to bridge the gap between supply and demand and between price levels and income.

Concerning rising prices, Shaabo considered that inflation and weak production in Syria will make high costs inevitable, in the absence of an active economic cycle in the country.

The President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), Mirjana Spoljaric, previously explained to Enab Baladi that many Syrians still rely on humanitarian assistance, emphasizing the need for continued international support to ensure a smooth transition from relief to recovery and development.