Enab Baladi – Khaled al-Jeratli

Over the past years, the United States has raised the possibility of withdrawing its troops from Syria as a future plan, which raises concerns for its local ally, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is constantly under threat from the north, as Turkey considers it a “terrorist organization” and constantly attacks areas under its control on this basis.

The SDF and its political umbrella, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), viewed Russia as an alternative to the United States to fend off Turkey’s threats to their project. However, with the fall of the Syrian regime on December 8, 2024, the withdrawal of Russia, and the collapse of Iranian influence, the SDF has been left hostage to the results of American-Turkish negotiations, which may determine its future.

In an interview with the British newspaper “The Guardian,” SDF commander Mazloum Abdi called on the elected US President Donald Trump to keep US military forces in Syria, coinciding with his inauguration on January 20.

Abdi stated that the Islamic State had strengthened its presence in the Syrian desert after seizing weapons from the ousted Assad regime, while the SDF faces increasing pressure from Turkey and its allied factions east of Aleppo.

The SDF commander deemed the US military presence on the ground as the main factor for stability in the region, adding that if the 2,000 American soldiers withdrew, it would lead to “the re-emergence of many factions, including the Islamic State.”

Withdrawal plans

On November 6, 2024, Robert Kennedy Jr., a close ally of elected President Donald Trump, expressed his desire to withdraw American troops from northeastern Syria.

In a live broadcast covering the presidential election results, Kennedy mentioned that Trump had shown his intention to withdraw his troops from northeastern Syria while on a plane trip.

In September 2024, the United States set a timeline to end its military mission in the coalition to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

An American-Iraqi statement reported by the Iraqi News Agency (INA) stated that the coalition’s mission in Iraq was scheduled to end within a maximum of 12 months.

To prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State from northeastern Syria, the coalition’s military mission operating in Syria will continue, based on consultations with the High Military Committee, until September 2026.

Elimination of reasons

The US presence in Syria has historically been linked to direct and indirect reasons, according to researcher Samer al-Ahmad, who specializes in northeastern Syria’s affairs.

The main and announced reason for the presence of US forces under the umbrella of the International Coalition is to combat the Islamic State, which controlled the region until early 2019, as repeatedly stated by the US Department of Defense.

The researcher also linked the presence of these forces to cutting Iranian influence and depriving the ousted Syrian regime and its allies (Iran and Russia) of oil resources in eastern Syria, considering that all these reasons have ended today.

Al-Ahmad asserted that Iran has left Syria with the fall of the regime, and there is no longer a need to block the area from Iran through military bases. With the regime’s fall, there is also no need to restrict eastern Syria’s resources from the Damascus government, in addition to the fact that the Islamic State no longer poses a significant threat.

He noted the presence of fighters from the Islamic State in prisons in northeastern Syria, along with cells that spread in the desert areas of Syria, but downplayed the significance of such a presence, believing that the new Syrian administration in Damascus is capable of dealing with such issues, as it has demonstrated in previous stages, whether through cooperation with the International Coalition or other parties.

For his part, researcher Osama Sheikh Ali at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies believes that predicting Trump’s decisions is difficult, especially since he is a “dealmaker.” He recalled the previous experience when Trump decided in 2019 to withdraw from Syria but later changed his mind.

He added that it is unlikely that an American withdrawal will happen in the near future, especially with comments from US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who stated that the threat from the Islamic State still persists in Syria.

The US Department of Defense previously announced that its military assets deployed in Syria would remain in their positions to prevent the Islamic State from re-forming.

Austin told the Associated Press that the US needs to keep its forces in Syria to prevent the Islamic State group from regaining strength after the ousting of Bashar Assad’s regime.

Estimates suggest that there are between 8,000 and 10,000 militants from the Islamic State group in the camps, “with at least 2,000 of them being extremely dangerous,” according to the American agency.

The fate of the SDF

The SDF, or the Autonomous Administration, has long considered itself the biggest loser in any changes that may occur on the ground leading to an American withdrawal from Syria, as this would leave it vulnerable to Turkish attacks that could end its project by force.

AANES is still engaged in negotiations with the new political administration in Damascus to integrate the SDF with the new Syrian army and sit at the national dialogue table with the other Syrian components.

Despite the complicated scene between the Autonomous Administration’s demands for decentralization and the Damascus government’s conditions for dismantling military components east of the Euphrates, negotiations between the two sides seem to be underway, as noted in political statements from both sides.

Researcher Samer al-Ahmad told Enab Baladi that the SDF currently faces two options: either reach an agreement with the Damascus government and transform its institutions into local councils under the provincial councils, or face a Turkish ground attack that could dismantle its institutions in Syria.

Osama Sheikh Ali also believes that the best option for the Autonomous Administration is to reach an agreement with the new Syrian administration and join the new Syrian army, coming to an understanding regarding regional governance in the upcoming phase.

He pointed out that there are entities or countries that may seek to embarrass the new administration in Damascus, perhaps establishing “counter-revolutions” that could exploit the scene and reinvest in the military expertise of the SDF.

Sheikh Ali deemed that the Autonomous Administration remains actively involved in negotiations with the new political administration and might reach an agreement that resolves the complexity it currently faces.

Statements on reconciliation with Damascus

SDF commander Mazloum Abdi stated that the SDF will be part of the new Syrian army, clarifying that he has not received an official invitation to attend the national dialogue conference recently mentioned by Syrian officials, calling for the inclusion of all Syrian components in it.

In an interview with Sky News Arabia on January 10, he said, “We had a positive meeting with the new Syrian administration regarding various issues that concern the country,” noting a consensus on essential issues related to Syria’s future.

Abdi had previously announced the reaching of an agreement with the new administration in Damascus to reject the idea of partition in Syria during ongoing negotiations between the two parties.

He stated to Agence France-Presse that the SDF had agreed with the new authority in Damascus to reject “any partition projects that threaten the nation’s unity.”

In a written statement to the agency, transmitted by France 24, Abdi added that a “positive meeting” brought together the leaders of both sides at the end of last month in Damascus, saying, “We agree that we support the unity and integrity of Syrian lands and reject any partition projects that threaten the country’s unity.”

A delegation from the SDF, whose backbone consists of Kurdish fighters and is supported by Washington, met with the new leadership in Damascus, Ahmed al-Sharaa, on December 30, 2024, in the first talks between the two sides since the ousting of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

While Abdi talks about a reconciliation with the new administration, clashes between factions of the Syrian National Army (SNA) backed by Turkey and the SDF continue in eastern Aleppo province for over a month, resulting in the former controlling areas of Manbij and Tal Rifaat in the Aleppo countryside.

Turkey considers the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which are the backbone of the SDF, to be a “terrorist organization” that extends from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which was founded in Turkey based on radical nationalist grounds nearly half a century ago.