Enab Baladi – Yamen Moghrabi

Information has surfaced about military operations carried out by Ukrainian special forces against Russian military targets in Syria. If confirmed, this would mark a shift in the geography of the confrontation in the Ukraine-Russia war, influencing Ukrainian tactics. This comes in light of Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and the potential reduction of US support for Kyiv if former US President Donald Trump returns to office.

On July 31, the privately-owned Kiev Post, which is owned by a Syrian businessman, published what it claimed were video recordings of an attack near Kuweires Military Airport in Aleppo, resulting in the “destruction of Russian military equipment.” It cited intelligence sources stating that the Ukrainian group that carried out the attack is called “Khimik.”

This isn’t the first time the newspaper has reported attacks on Russian forces in Syria. Last June, it claimed that Ukrainian special forces attacked Russian patrols in areas adjacent to the occupied Syrian Golan in southern Syria.

Meanwhile, Russian defense authorities and military leaders in Syria have remained silent on the strike.

Russian media reported analyses from experts on the circulating news. On July 31, Russia Today quoted Konstantin Sivkov, a doctor in military sciences, saying that the messages about the Ukrainian strike are published “to show Ukraine’s success,” as Kyiv has not achieved any on the front, attempting to “pretend success.” He claimed that these publications aim to “destabilize the political situation in Russia.”

Andrey Klimov, Deputy Chair of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs, told the Russian Lenta.ru website that Ukrainian intelligence claims responsibility for all incidents targeting the Russian flag.

The newspaper that released the videos did not provide information on how these forces entered Syria or any possible collaboration with Syrian opposition factions, whether those affiliated with al-Fath al-Mubin Operations Room in Idlib, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in rural Aleppo, or even the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) controlling northeastern Syria.

Potential for moving the battle to Syria

The Ukrainian news emerges amidst difficulties Kyiv faces in its war against Russia and fears of declining US support if former President Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election in November. Trump has vowed to end the war immediately upon his return to power. Politically, during a Fox News interview on July 23, Trump stated that this war should end.

Militarily, Russia achieved gains after launching “fierce” attacks eastward over the past week, marking the most significant advances in three months, according to Reuters.

These pressures might push Kyiv to exert pressure on Moscow away from the active fronts, engaging the Russians in strategically important regions like Africa or the Middle East, specifically Syria.

Russian affairs expert Dr. Nasr al-Youssef told Enab Baladi that the presence of Ukrainian forces in Syria attacking Russian forces is unlikely, especially given Trump’s recent statements about his phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during which Trump emphasized that the war should end and highlighted the Russians’ combat resilience.

Considering this statement, the presence of Ukrainian groups or special forces attacking Russians in Syria seems doubtful. The Western countries and Ukrainian leadership are determined to achieve victory before the current US President Joe Biden leaves office, fearing Trump’s return.

Al-Youssef added that Ukrainians and the West would strive to focus intensely on the fiery fronts stretching over 1,200 kilometers between Russia and Ukraine, making it seem illogical for Ukrainians to disperse their forces outside Ukrainian territory.

Previous plans to strike the Russians

The idea of striking Russian forces in Syria through Ukrainian soldiers or forces is not new and dates back to beyond last June. In April 2023, the American newspaper The Washington Post reported a leaked document indicating that Ukraine planned to launch attacks on Russian forces in Syria with the help of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

At the time, the newspaper reported that the Ukrainian military intelligence directorate planned to carry out strikes against Russian forces and Wagner mercenaries in Syria in the winter preceding the document’s publication, before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the operations to stop.

The report was based on a highly classified US intelligence document. According to the document, Ukrainian officers trained SDF members on attacking Russian targets and conducting unspecified “direct action” activities and drone attacks.

The document outlined that Ukrainian officers preferred to strike Russian forces using drones, starting with “small” strikes, or possibly limiting their strikes to Wagner mercenary forces.

The document noted that the Syrian battlefield “provides options for denial” for Ukraine, as it can attack Russian sites previously struck by Syrian opposition, launch attacks from opposition or regime-held areas, and attribute the attacks to “front or dissolved or active” non-governmental groups.

Psychological warfare

Rashid Hourani, a researcher at the Jusoor Center for Studies, told Enab Baladi that Ukrainian entry into Syria seems unlikely given the ongoing war conditions on the active fronts against Russia.

However, other entities might benefit from Ukrainian expertise. Ukraine inherited around 30% of Soviet arms production facilities and scientific research in this field before the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.

Hourani doesn’t rule out the possibility that reports from both sides are part of psychological warfare. Ukraine might be sending a message that it has allies and local arms capable of support and influence, especially since opposition factions had previously exhausted Russian forces.

Russia intervened militarily in Syria on September 30, 2015, shifting field control balances significantly after the Syrian regime had lost vast areas of Syrian territory.

The Russian intervention resulted in the death of 6,969 civilians, including 2,055 children, according to data from the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR). Moscow made gains on various levels after conducting over 100,000 air sorties, reviving regime control on the ground. Russia also used and tested 320 types of weapons in Syria by July 2021.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has continued since February 24, 2022, without achieving the goals desired by Russian President Vladimir Putin. The conflict persists in Ukrainian cities with ongoing losses for both Russia and Ukraine, compounded by Western support for Ukraine.