Turkey Lowers Forecast for Syrian Returns in 2026

  • 2026/10/26
  • 1:00 pm
Passenger traffic at the Kasab border crossing with Türkiye, October 16, 2026 (General Authority for Ports and Customs).

Passenger traffic at the Kasab border crossing with Türkiye, October 16, 2026 (General Authority for Ports and Customs).

Turkey’s 2027 budget figures submitted to the Turkish Parliament show that the number of Syrians expected to return from Turkey to their home country in 2026 is significantly below the target set by Turkish authorities.

The budget includes figures on the return of Syrians under temporary protection, as part of what Turkish authorities describe as “voluntary, safe, dignified and orderly” returns, according to the Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet on Sunday, October 25.

According to the newspaper, Turkey had planned for 700,000 Syrians to return voluntarily in 2026. However, the projected number of returns by the end of the year stands at just 210,000.

The figures set a target of 110,000 Syrian returns in 2027, followed by 90,000 annually in both 2028 and 2029.

In a related development, the draft budget of Turkey’s Presidency of Migration Management showed that 40,000 international protection applications had been finalized in 2026, while the number of foreign nationals deported is expected to reach 70,000 by the end of the year.

The figures also outlined border security targets, including the completion of 200 kilometers of patrol roads, 80 kilometers of border wall and 94 kilometers of camera and sensor lines by year-end.

Earlier, Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi announced that approximately 723,000 refugees had returned to Syria since December 8, 2024, noting that around 1.5 million Syrians had returned to the country over the past decade.

Çiftçi said the pace of returns had accelerated following the fall of the Assad regime. He added that approximately 3.62 million foreign nationals currently reside legally in Turkey, including around 2.23 million Syrians.

Turkey Develops New Roadmap for Syrian Returns

Turkey is working with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to develop a new roadmap for the voluntary return of Syrians.

The program aims to move beyond the concept of return as a process that ends at the border crossing, introducing a comprehensive approach to supporting returnees both before their departure and after their arrival in Syria.

Under the new program, Syrians wishing to return will receive a range of services, including travel documents, healthcare, land and air transportation, as well as information and assistance before departure.

The program will also include reception services upon arrival in Syria, transportation to their destination cities, and follow-up support to monitor their circumstances, integration, and adjustment to living conditions after returning.

Cooperation priorities between Turkey’s Interior Ministry and the IOM include strengthening the capacity of border crossings and addressing issues related to identification documents, population registration and property title deeds.

In this context, technical coordination between Turkey’s migration authorities, relevant institutions in Syria and the IOM will be strengthened to accelerate identity verification procedures, issue travel documents and facilitate returns.

In its new phase, the program will focus on enabling returning Syrians to establish stable and sustainable lives in Syria by supporting their access to essential services, vocational training, employment opportunities, and livelihoods, helping strengthen their ability to settle in the country after returning.

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