Syria’s Planning and Statistics Commission issued a study titled “The State of Inflation in Syria from 2010 to 2025” on Thursday, July 30, presenting a comprehensive review of inflation trends over 15 years. The study is based on an analysis of the Consumer Price Index, a breakdown of its components, and their connection to the economic changes Syria experienced during that period.
The study concluded that inflation in Syria was not solely a monetary phenomenon. Rather, it resulted from a complex interaction between the collapse of the Syrian pound’s exchange rate, declining production, disrupted supply chains, rising transportation and energy costs, fiscal policies and deficit financing, changes to subsidies and wages, and external shocks.
The study found that the relationship between the exchange rate and the general price index remained the most consistent factor throughout the period examined, while the food, energy, and transportation categories served as the main channels through which inflationary pressures spread to other sectors.
Quarterly Analysis of Price Changes
The study relied on the Consumer Price Index, using data from the 2008 and 2009 Household Income and Expenditure Survey and adopting 2010 as the base year for comparison.
Its methodology fixed the relative weights of the components in the consumer basket, allowing price changes to be measured accurately over time and compared across different periods.
The study also focused on quarterly analysis, which it considered better able to identify short-term economic shocks than annual indicators.
Food Carries the Largest Weight
The study said the structure of household spending in Syria explains an important part of inflation trends.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages have the largest weight in the consumer basket, at 39.9%, followed by housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel at 25.54%.
Transportation accounts for 7.06%, clothing and footwear for 5.59%, communications for 4.24%, and healthcare for 3.82%, with the remaining share distributed among other categories of consumption.
According to the study, this structure made food, housing, and transportation the most influential components in the overall inflation rate because of their substantial weight in the consumer basket.
Any increase in fuel prices was directly reflected in transportation costs before spreading to food and service prices, accelerating inflation.
The study considered this evidence of a strong mechanism through which price shocks were transmitted across the Syrian economy.
Seven Stages of Economic Change
The study divided the development of inflation in Syria into seven main stages.
These began with a period of normal inflation before 2011, followed by the economic shock and the beginning of unrest from 2012 to 2013, the structural collapse of the economy from 2014 to 2016, and a period of relative stability from 2017 to 2019.
The following stages were compound cost-of-living inflation from 2020 to 2021, inflation driven by living and energy costs from 2022 to 2024, and volatile inflation in 2025.
The study also offered a preliminary assessment of trends in 2026.
These stages were based on changes in the price index, the exchange rate, and the economic conditions accompanying each period.
Stage One: Normal Inflation, 2010 to 2011
Although the Syrian economy experienced relative stability before 2011, the study indicated that early signs of inflation began to appear toward the end of that year.
This coincided with the beginning of developments in Syria, a rising exchange rate, and increasing uncertainty in the markets.
During this stage, inflation remained close to normal levels and was driven by conventional market factors.
It then gradually developed into inflation more closely connected to the exchange rate and expectations about the future.
The study’s data showed that the overall Consumer Price Index rose from 105.043 points in the first quarter of 2011 to 111.063 points in the fourth quarter, a cumulative increase of 5.73%.
During the same year, the Syrian pound’s exchange rate against the US dollar rose from 46.925 pounds to 51.362 pounds, an increase of 9.46%.
The final quarter of 2011 was the most significant turning point.
The largest increase in the price index coincided with the largest rise in the exchange rate, reflecting the beginning of the transmission of monetary changes into consumer markets.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages were the main drivers of inflation in 2011, followed by clothing and footwear, household furnishings, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, healthcare, and restaurants and hotels.
Transportation made only a limited contribution, while housing and energy had not yet become a major source of inflationary pressure, as they would in later years.
The study concluded that inflation in 2011 was not caused by a collapse in supply or a severe shortage of goods.
It resulted from a combination of the rising exchange rate, greater sensitivity in food prices, and the initial repricing of goods and services as political and security risks increased.
Stage Two: Economic Shock and the Beginning of the Revolution, 2012 to 2013
According to the study, this stage marked the real turning point in Syria’s inflation trajectory. The economy moved from limited disruption to a compound shock involving the rapid depreciation of the Syrian pound, disrupted supply chains, higher transportation and service costs, and mounting pressure on the fuel sector after several oil fields fell outside state control and the country became more dependent on imported petroleum products.
Together, these factors triggered successive waves of price increases affecting food, housing, transportation, and services.
The study found that the overall Consumer Price Index rose from 129.27 points in the first quarter of 2012 to 327.67 points in the fourth quarter of 2013, an increase of 153.49%. Over the same period, the exchange rate rose from 58.39 Syrian pounds to 139.32 pounds to the US dollar, an increase of 138.61%.
The year 2013 was also more severe than 2012. The Consumer Price Index increased by 71.39% in 2013 alone, compared with 29.01% in 2012.
The study concluded that inflation in 2012 and 2013 was no longer an extension of the developments seen in 2011. It had evolved into compound inflation that combined imported inflation transmitted through the exchange rate, supply-side inflation caused by disrupted supply chains, cost inflation linked to transportation and energy, and expectations-driven inflation resulting from the repricing of goods and services. This caused the crisis to spread into the structure of the domestic market and its daily pricing mechanisms.
Stage Three: Structural Economic Collapse, 2014 to 2016
As Syria entered this stage, inflation was no longer merely reflected in rising prices, according to the study. It became a direct result of contracting economic activity, declining productive capacity, and a widening gap between supply and demand, alongside the continuing depreciation of the Syrian pound. These years saw major losses in the industrial and agricultural sectors, declining oil and energy production, and increasing difficulties in trade and transportation, placing further pressure on prices across different markets.
The study found that the overall Consumer Price Index continued to rise rapidly between 2014 and 2016 as the Syrian pound continued to lose value against the US dollar. This caused exchange-rate fluctuations to affect most imported goods, as well as locally produced goods that depended on imported production inputs.
The study also confirmed a close correlation between exchange-rate movements and changes in the Consumer Price Index during this stage.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributors to inflation. However, the impact of housing, energy, and transportation increased significantly compared with previous years because of rising fuel, electricity, and shipping costs. These increases were reflected in production, distribution, and final consumer prices.
The continued weakness of domestic production made markets more dependent on imports, increasing their sensitivity to any change in the exchange rate or transportation costs. This entrenched structural inflation, transforming it from a temporary crisis into a prolonged economic problem.
Stage Four: Relative Stability, 2017 to 2019
Although this period saw a limited improvement in economic activity, the study found that it did not lead to a noticeable decline in prices.
It only slowed the pace at which they increased compared with previous stages.
The economy entered a period of relative stability characterized by inflation remaining at high levels amid continuing structural imbalances in production, the exchange rate, and foreign trade.
Any limited improvement in the availability of goods was offset by continuing monetary pressures and high import costs, keeping prices elevated.
Inflation accelerated more slowly than it had between 2012 and 2016, but prices remained high.
Food, housing, energy, and transportation continued to lead the increases, reflecting the continued transmission of shocks across different economic sectors.
Stage Five: Compound Cost-of-Living Inflation, 2020 to 2021
According to the study, the Syrian economy entered a new stage of inflation in which domestic factors became intertwined with external developments.
Pressure was no longer caused only by declining production or exchange-rate fluctuations.
The economic crisis in Lebanon, the coronavirus pandemic, increasing difficulties with imports and financial transfers, and the continued decline of the Syrian pound contributed to a new wave of price increases affecting most essential goods and services.
These developments intensified living pressures on Syrian households.
The close relationship between exchange-rate deterioration and the rising Consumer Price Index continued during this stage.
Higher transportation, production, and energy costs had a greater effect, directly raising the prices of food and other essential goods amid weak domestic production and continued dependence on imports.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel, and transportation remained the largest contributors to inflation.
Price increases also extended to healthcare, education, communications, and restaurants, demonstrating that inflationary pressures had spread across household spending categories.
Stage Six: Living and Energy Cost Inflation, 2022 to 2024
The study found that inflation became more complex between 2022 and 2024 as domestic pressures coincided with global increases in energy and food prices.
This raised the costs of imports, production, and transportation inside Syria.
Adjustments to fuel and service prices also strengthened inflationary waves, making living costs the factor with the greatest effect on Syrians’ daily lives.
Any increase in energy prices was rapidly passed on to transportation prices and then to food and service prices.
The Consumer Price Index therefore continued to rise, despite a slower rate of increase than during some previous periods.
The exchange rate also remained one of the most important determinants of inflation because Syrian markets continued to rely on imported goods and foreign production inputs.
During this stage, the Syrian economy did not enter a period of price stability.
Instead, it experienced sustained high inflation.
Stage Seven: Volatile Inflation in 2025
The decline recorded in 2025 was attributed to improved access to markets, fewer bottlenecks along supply routes, the effects of relative economic opening, and a decline in the exchange rate during part of the year.
However, the data showed that this improvement was not permanent, as the fourth quarter saw a clear return to rising prices.
The study said the most accurate description of 2025 was therefore a year of strong price correction during the first half, followed by a partial rebound toward the end, rather than a definitive return to normal prices.
Despite reports about the easing of some restrictions and sanctions on Syria during 2025, as well as a 200% increase in salaries and pensions in June 2025, the study said final conclusions must remain governed by data from all four quarters.
Preliminary Assessment of 2026
The study said regional conflict led to a rapid rise in prices, with the prices of some goods increasing by an average of 30% over a short period because of disruptions to supply chains and shipping routes.
The conflict also affected the value of the Syrian pound by increasing demand for the dollar and reducing financial transfers, particularly from Gulf countries.
Higher shipping and transportation costs, along with increased insurance costs for ships, were clearly reflected in the prices of imported goods and related products.
Government decisions concerning the currency at the beginning of 2026 did not have a positive effect on inflation or the price index.
Instead, they placed slight upward pressure on prices compared with the impact of the exchange rate, which is directly reflected in energy and fuel prices and consequently in the prices of all goods and services.
The exchange rate increased during the first quarter from 11,450 Syrian pounds to 12,400 pounds to the dollar.
It then continued rising to 13,200 pounds, an overall increase of 15%.
This was expected to affect all goods and services and absorb the increase scheduled for payment at the beginning of May.
The study concluded that inflation in Syria from 2010 to 2025 passed through successive transformations.
It began as limited inflation, developed into severe inflationary waves, and eventually stabilized at high, structural levels driven by declining production, exchange-rate fluctuations, higher energy and transportation costs, and repeated domestic and external shocks.
Foundation for a National Economic Database
Data management specialist Mohammad Tawfiq Nahlawi said the study was not merely a conventional economic report.
He described it as an important first step toward building a cumulative national economic database and strengthening the knowledge infrastructure needed for economic research and analysis.
Nahlawi told Enab Baladi that researchers had been forced throughout the previous 15 years to rely on qualitative and descriptive reports or approximate estimates issued by unofficial bodies, international organizations, or research centers using limited surveys.
This study, by contrast, provides researchers with a continuous quantitative time series for the first time.
For data specialists, economists, and academic researchers, gathering the figures included in the study represented a central challenge because collecting accurate data in an economy affected by war and continuing division over many years is extremely difficult.
According to Nahlawi, one of the study’s most significant contributions is not limited to its descriptive findings.
Its statistical appendices and detailed tables provide quarterly and annual consumer-price indicators extending back to 2011.
The availability of regular time series helps researchers build more accurate econometric models and apply advanced statistical tests that had previously been difficult because of the shortage of consistent data, he said.
“With the publication of the inflation study covering 2010 to 2025, there is now a continuous quantitative baseline,” Nahlawi said.
“These figures are not merely static records. They are the silent driver of any future recovery and reconstruction process because they allow us to measure the true scale of the damage and design evidence-based interventions.”
The study’s importance also lies in the terminology and concepts adopted by a state institution, he added.
Its explicit recognition of factors such as the black market, fragmented markets and transportation barriers, collapsed supply chains, and the inability of government wage and subsidy policies to protect purchasing power gives researchers and economists a reliable basis for critical and realistic analysis.
Nahlawi said this allows researchers to work without fearing that their analysis will conflict with official discourse or lead to accusations that they are exaggerating the crisis, because “the state itself” has documented these failures.
From a data-science perspective, the availability of official and organized data at this level gives researchers a stronger foundation for studies and analytical models.
It also allows them to derive insights and propose policies based on numerical evidence, supporting a more objective and accurate understanding of Syria’s economic reality and possible paths toward recovery and development, Nahlawi said.
Lack of Official Data Complicates Estimates
A previous Enab Baladi report found that the Central Bank of Syria’s failure to publish official data for more than a year made it extremely difficult to determine an accurate monthly inflation rate.
Researchers consequently relied on indicators issued by research institutions and international organizations.
Benjamin Fève, senior adviser at Karam Shaar Advisory, told Enab Baladi that it was difficult to provide an exact inflation figure for Syria because official data publication had stopped.
Available indicators nevertheless suggested that inflation was continuing, with clear differences among sectors.
Fève said estimates from the Syrian Center for Policy Research showed that prices rose by about 10% during the first quarter of 2026.
Food prices increased by 13%, while housing, water, electricity, and gas prices rose by 11%.
World Food Programme data showed relative stability in the cost of the minimum expenditure basket between April and May, but the cost remained 19% higher than during the same period a year earlier.
Alternative sources, including World Food Programme bulletins and the Consumer Price Index issued by the Syrian Center for Policy Research, provide an important picture but do not constitute a comprehensive official monthly inflation indicator, Fève said.
This is because measurement methodologies differ, prices vary among governorates, the informal sector is extensive, and multiple exchange rates are in use.
Economist and university professor Majdi al-Jamous said inflation rates in Syria remained extremely high, ranging between 27% and 35% annually.
He explained that inflation is reflected in the declining purchasing power of the local currency.