Enab Baladi – Khaled al-Jeratli

The moment the military battles in eastern Aleppo began dates back to the end of last year, just days before the fall of the Assad regime. The clashes were concentrated between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), while the new Syrian administration took a neutral stance, at a time when it was negotiating to persuade the leadership of the SDF to integrate with the new Syrian army.

Today, it is assumed that the Syrian National Army no longer exists as a military block after agreeing to dissolve itself on January 29, when the factions of the National Army announced during the Victory Conference their acceptance to integrate into the Syrian Ministry of Defense, yet military confrontations have not ceased east of Aleppo.

On March 10 of this month, the Syrian transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, met with the SDF leader, agreeing on a pact that stipulated the integration of the SDF into Syrian state institutions.

Despite both military factions agreeing to integrate into the Syrian army, military battles continue unabated, and the Turkish army bombards SDF-controlled areas daily in northeastern Syria.

The Turkish targeting of the SDF is based on its consideration as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is listed as a terrorist organization by Ankara. Turkey has been attacking areas under its control for years based on these reasons. However, the military confrontations between the National Army and the SDF, which is on the verge of integrating into Damascus institutions, are regarded as a complex situation.

The battles continue

Military clashes between the two sides continue to this day, with no advancement or retreat from either side. These confrontations are limited to reciprocal shelling and sporadic targeting here and there, with no official commentary from Damascus regarding them.

The SDF reported yesterday, Wednesday, March 19, statistics regarding its military operations east of Aleppo governorate, stating that they targeted Turkish forces and factions loyal to them in response to Turkish strikes on villages near the Tishrin dam.

They added that they thwarted an attempted advance towards areas under their control.

There have been no announcements from the Syrian government regarding the ongoing situation in that region, despite the fact that the National Army has become subordinate to the Syrian army. Meanwhile, Turkey’s active military announcements in the area focus on claiming the killing of “terrorists,” sometimes numbering in the dozens.

The agreement failed to ease tensions at front lines

The image that brought together Mazloum Abdi and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa was the most significant event since the fall of the Syrian regime, as the SDF has long been considered one of the largest military forces in Syria, supported by the United States, which has a significant military presence in eastern Syria.

However, this step did not effectively halt the fighting, even though the SDF has repeatedly called for a truce and cessation of hostilities. This was attributed by researcher Samir al-Abdullah at the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies to both parties continuing to exert mutual pressure, seeking to ensure the complete application of the agreement between them.

Al-Abdullah added that tensions have escalated between the two sides due to “repeated violations committed by the SDF in the region,” noting that the latter occasionally targets areas under government control or civilian locations.

Conversely, Turkey seeks to prevent the SDF from achieving new territorial gains or retreating from the agreement, leading Ankara to continue its frequent bombardments of SDF positions, according to al-Abdullah.

Both parties are attributed with attacks targeting civilians, which they deny responsibility for. The most recent were three days ago when the SDF accused Turkey of targeting civilians in the countryside of Ain al-Arab/Kobani, resulting in the deaths of nine civilians, a claim that Turkey later denied.

The SDF is also accused of targeting populated areas in northern and eastern Aleppo, which they consistently deny any responsibility for.

Researcher Osama Sheikh Ali from the Omran Center for Strategic Studies takes the view that the areas east of the Euphrates are under US influence, while those to the west are outside that influence. The region is considered under the control of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara lists as “terrorist.”

He added that Turkey is trying to empty the area of these units on both sides of the Euphrates.

The uncertainty surrounding the ongoing battles is seen as a role in perpetuating the conflict, as there is no complete confidence that the SDF will engage in a final agreement. This can be viewed as a “neither peace nor war” situation.

Sheikh Ali believes Turkey aims to leverage this uncertainty regarding the continuing agreement by maintaining the fighting at the Tishrin dam to exert more pressure on the SDF to withdraw their units from these areas.

Additionally, the researcher notes that some factions integrated into the Ministry of Defense continue to receive support from Turkey and are operated under orders from Ankara.

What is Turkey’s role?

On March 15 of this month, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Ankara is closely monitoring the agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF, expressing concerns about potential future threats to Turkey’s security.

During an interview with Turkish channel TV 100, Fidan said that Turkey has communicated its concerns to Syrian officials during a visit to Syria.

He continued, “If there is an agreement that has been signed with good intentions, then let it be so, but there may be some problems or landmines planted in the future… We in Turkey are closely monitoring this.”

Ankara fears that the SDF might exploit the agreement to strengthen their position or achieve additional gains rather than adhering to its terms, according to researcher Samir al-Abdullah.

Al-Abdullah added that despite the passage of time since the agreement’s announcement, no significant progress has been observed in its implementation, as the SDF has not yet withdrawn from the areas they captured following the regime’s fall.

Osama Sheikh Ali views that the Syrian government, on the other hand, is attempting to avoid being in an embarrassing position “even though its position is already embarrassing.” On one side, it signed an agreement with the SDF but has not reached a ceasefire on all fronts, leading to the first thought being that this region is not considered a front line between Damascus and the SDF.

To avoid this embarrassment, Damascus is refraining from discussing the clashes taking place in the area and completely ignoring hot zones, akin to its attempts to overlook Israeli incursions in the south.

Damascus’s neglect of the battles east of Aleppo with the SDF aims to maintain its relationship with Turkey, especially since Ankara views the agreement positively but is uncertain about its success, according to Sheikh Ali.

A third party

The SDF cannot be considered a single party regarding settlement with Damascus or a truce with Turkey, as they are influenced by a significant internal current that penetrates politically and militarily.

Researcher Samir al-Abdullah believes that other parties play a role in fueling the conflict and obstructing the agreement, particularly in eastern Aleppo. Notable among these are elements of the PKK linked to Iran, operating within the SDF, in addition to dozens of remnants of the regime who have moved into the SDF-controlled areas and were behind several clashes.

On his part, Osama Sheikh Ali believes that currents within the military system in northeastern Syria are dissatisfied with the agreement with Damascus, which is evident through SDF arrests of those celebrating the agreement on March 10 or requests for civilians to participate in anti-constitutional declaration protests in some cases.

He noted that the PKK is dissatisfied with the agreement and is seeking an exit from it, resisting its completion. Turkey is aware of this, and it constitutes one of the immediate reasons for the continuation of military confrontations east of Aleppo.

Sheikh Ali explained that Turkey is attempting to send a message to Damascus as well, signaling that it will not abandon its pursuit of anyone deemed a threat to its national security, regardless of the form of agreement with the SDF.