Enab Baladi – Ali Darwish
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are facing increased pressure from their primary ally, the United States, which has formulated a withdrawal plan from Syria and halted external aid that the SDF benefits from in several areas.
The US pressure on the SDF, which controls northeastern Syria, came after military confrontations with the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), and at a time when negotiations are ongoing with the Damascus government to reach a final arrangement aimed at reclaiming full control of Syrian territories by Damascus.
US plan and suspension of aid
On January 24th, the United States suspended most external aid grants for 90 days, which also means no further actions will be taken to distribute funds to aid programs approved by the US government.
The United States provides financial assistance to organizations operating in SDF-controlled areas that offer services to the local population, particularly organizations overseeing aid management in the camps.
The halt in support for organizations is not specifically targeting the SDF but is part of a broader suspension of US foreign aid programs, affecting several areas in the Middle East and other regions, including parts of Syria where support for displaced persons in Aleppo and Idlib has ceased.
Human Rights Watch (HRW) stated that the US government’s suspension of aid to NGOs working in the al-Hol and al-Roj camps exacerbates life-threatening conditions, risks further destabilization of the fragile security situation, and limits the provision of basic services to camp residents.
The SDF manages the al-Hol and Roj camps, which house about 42,500 individuals, most of whom are families suspected of belonging to the Islamic State group, including around 18,000 foreign nationals from 60 countries, according to estimates by Human Rights Watch.
After the Assad regime’s collapse and the establishment of the temporary Damascus government, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), the political umbrella for the SDF, renewed its calls on countries to repatriate their citizens from the camps, starting to facilitate the return of displaced persons.
The co-chair of the Office for Displaced Persons and Refugees, Sheikhmous Ahmed, said a few days ago to Agence France-Presse that the Autonomous Administration is working to empty the camps in collaboration with the United Nations.
The Autonomous Administration also stated that it is coordinating with the Iraqi Ministry of Migration regarding Iraqi citizens residing in the al-Hol camp and facilitating the departure of groups of Syrian families to their areas.
Regarding the US military presence in SDF-controlled areas, which is considered one of its key cards in negotiations with the Damascus government, NBC News reported on February 5 that US President Donald Trump and close officials expressed interest in withdrawing US troops from Syria.
This prompted the Pentagon to devise withdrawal plans over 30, 60, or 90 days.
In return, the SDF stated that it has not received any plans from US forces regarding the withdrawal from northeastern Syria.
Push toward Damascus
Kurdish affairs researcher Badr Mulla Rashid told Enab Baladi that cutting off aid will soon create pressure on how to support local organizations, many of which depend on international support. This, ultimately, will lead to a push toward reaching an understanding between the SDF and Damascus.
The researcher clarified that this situation will foster a desire within the community to open up, whether regarding the market, government institutions, or crossings towards Damascus in order to compensate for the financial void or shortages left by local communities.
The Damascus government and the SDF are negotiating, but neither side has reached a public agreement on various issues. The Damascus government prefers to resolve the SDF issue through negotiations rather than military force, according to statements made by the Minister of Defense, Murhaf Abu Qasra, and the president of the transitional phase, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Important files in SDF’s hands
The SDF holds onto several important files that serve as leverage, including camps housing families of Islamic State members, prisons holding its fighters, US support, and its control over extensive borders with Iraq, as well as the location of most of Syria’s oil wealth within its regions.
Specialist in northeastern Syria affairs, Samer al-Ahmad, stated that the files the SDF may hand over include those related to oil and borders (including official border crossings); these are sovereign files that the Damascus government demands immediate turnover.
This aligns with Turkey’s demands, which considers the SDF a “terrorist organization” and has repeatedly threatened military action to push it away from its borders, having already conducted two military operations: “Olive Branch” in Afrin, Aleppo countryside, in March and “Peace Spring” in October 2019 in eastern Euphrates.
Operation “Peace Spring” ceased following Turkish-American and Turkish-Russian agreements that aimed to push the SDF back from the border by around 30 kilometers.
Al-Ahmad highlighted the possibility of seeing the Damascus government forces spread into a depth of 20 to 30 kilometers along the border, which would deprive the SDF of its primary support base in border areas, putting it in a vulnerable position.
Badr Mulla Rashid believes that the files the SDF could begin to hand over to the Damascus government, should the latter escalate against it, include official institutions and facilitating their reopening, eventually transitioning to issues of crossings and borders.
The currently active Simalka crossing with the Kurdistan Region of Iraq could be managed cooperatively during the transitional phase, leading to how to manage the prisons and camps, which represents one of the last stages before a complete agreement.
According to Samer al-Ahmad, the SDF is attempting to relinquish its service-related responsibilities tied to education, health, and other sectors by demanding that the Damascus government assume responsibility through support for the Autonomous Administration’s institutions or by integrating them into the Damascus government, while retaining its employees and management.
However, the Damascus government rejected this proposal, offering instead to integrate these institutions following a reevaluation.
Al-Ahmad mentioned that the coming days will reveal more concessions from the SDF due to the clear regional and international pressures on it.
Additionally, the prison file that the SDF has been stalling on is being discussed between the Damascus government and the International Coalition, with a proposal to hand over management to the New Syrian Army, also supported by the Coalition.
The Damascus government proposed transferring detainees from SDF-controlled areas, ensuring their safety while providing guarantees. According to the researcher, this issue may take weeks or even months to resolve, according to existing or alternative proposals.
Loss of camp leverage
Researcher Samer al-Ahmad explained that the complete halt of support for the camps in northeastern Syria will drive the Autonomous Administration to empty them, which has already occurred with recent departures of Iraqis and Syrians.
Al-Ahmad added that emptying the camps means that the SDF is losing an important card that it has been exploiting, alongside the issue of detainees from the Islamic State group, to maintain international pressure and support for its existence.
“The end of the camps and resolution of the issue of detaining Islamic State members will eliminate the actual need for the existence of the SDF,” according to al-Ahmad, given that a new government would assume the tasks of managing prisons and combating terrorism, thus generating international pressure for a swift agreement and prompting further concessions from the SDF to the Damascus administration.
No military action currently
Analysts have ruled out any imminent military action by the Damascus government against the SDF at this time.
Researcher Badr Mulla Rashid believes that discussions of military action against the SDF must be contextualized within the surrounding security, regional, and international situations concerning Syria, indicating that this should not be merely viewed as a conflict between the Damascus government and the SDF but as interconnected with broader regional dynamics.
Currently, it does not seem that military action is on the table, as all parties recognize the consequences of such operations, according to Mulla Rashid.
Samer al-Ahmad attributed this to advancements in negotiations between both parties, mentioning the likelihood of Turkey launching limited military operations while skirmishes continue around the Tishreen Dam east of Manbij.
The SDF continues to assert that it is repelling daily attacks and that its fighters are engaged in clashes around the Tishreen Dam, while military factions that initiated Operation “Dawn of Freedom” in late November 2024 have not released details concerning skirmishes in this area.
Should the Damascus government launch a military offensive against the SDF, it seems that the International Coalition would not support such a move, and the SDF is aware of this but is maneuvering to achieve some gains, according to al-Ahmad.
The SDF possesses military forces that have been trained by the International Coalition over the years, along with internal security forces and other military groups, with the People’s Protection Units (YPG) being a foundational pillar of its forces for any future battles.