Enab Baladi – Mahmoud al-Abdullah
Following a military and security operation targeting smuggling gangs affiliated with Lebanese Hezbollah west of the city of Homs, the Military Operations Administration in cooperation with the General Security Service took control of the villages in the Al-Qusayr area adjacent to the border strip with Lebanon with the aim of securing the borders both militarily and securely.
Military analysts told Enab Baladi that the military control enforced by the Syrian forces over the border area with Lebanon does not mean the end of challenges obstructing complete border security.
They indicated that challenges such as the rugged geographical terrain, Hezbollah’s influence, and economic dependence on smuggling may allow the gangs to redeploy in the area again, raising questions about Syria’s ability to implement permanent and effective monitoring.
Western region commander at the Border Security Administration, Muaid al-Salama, stated in a statement to the Syrian News Agency (SANA) on February 10, that his forces have laid out a comprehensive plan to fully secure the borders, taking into account existing challenges and contributing to the protection of civilians from all threats targeting them.
Will it succeed?
Regarding the Syrian forces’ ability to secure the border militarily and securely, Rashid Hourani, a researcher at the Jusoor for Studies Center, stated that the Syrian forces are capable of securing the borders due to their previous mission experience and the high-level expertise gained during years of civil conflict, which allows them to perform tasks in various geographical and military situations, in addition to using drones for reconnaissance purposes that facilitate the mission.
Conversely, military analyst Nawar Shaaban argues that military solutions alone cannot stop smuggling activities in the region, but require a blend of stringent security measures, coordination with the Lebanese side, and creating economic alternatives that reduce local populations’ reliance on smuggling as a source of income.
He added that there is a pressing need for adopting a comprehensive approach that addresses the root causes of the crisis at the borders of the two countries, rather than relying solely on traditional military solutions.
He mentioned that one of the vital pillars for securing the borders is close security cooperation between Damascus and Beirut, as joint security committees can enhance monitoring operations and exchange intelligence information regarding smuggling networks.
Military measures must be integrated with broader strategies targeting the gradual dismantling of these networks.
These strategies include gathering accurate information about smuggling network leaders and enforcing severe legal prosecutions that entail deterrent penalties, in addition to community awareness about the risks of smuggling and its negative impacts on the local economy and security, according to researcher Shaaban.
Challenges hindering the process
Researcher Hourani observes that among the challenges facing the new Syrian administration in the operation to secure the borders is the difficult geographical terrain of the region, especially as members of Hezbollah and the smuggling gangs are well-acquainted with its terrain. However, Syrian forces have overcome this by proceeding with cautious and gradual advances or surrounding areas and preventing infiltration into them.
Shaaban noted that smuggling networks, particularly in the al-Qusayr area, are capable of adapting to security changes by finding alternative routes and utilizing more advanced techniques to evade monitoring, thanks to their geographical location.
The area is considered a strategic point where smuggling activities cannot be easily eradicated, given that security, political, economic, and social factors intertwine to shape its current reality and the continuity of smuggling operations.
The presence of Syrian supporters of Hezbollah in the region, who have suffered losses following the fall of the Assad regime and Hezbollah’s exit from Syria, alongside Lebanese citizens residing in Syrian villages, poses a second challenge to securing the border with Lebanon, according to Shaaban.
Syrian forces face another challenge if the Lebanese army is unable to maintain its deployment along the border, which would allow the party to attempt to reassert itself, as per Hourani’s remarks.
On February 9, the Lebanese army announced the reinforcement of its troops along the border with Syria by intensifying military patrols and establishing new monitoring points.
This announcement follows directives issued to military units deployed along the border to respond to fire sources targeting Lebanese territory from Syria after clashes broke out in villages near the al-Qusayr border area.
Conversely, the western region commander of the Border Security Administration, Muaid al-Salama, denied targeting sites inside Lebanon, stating that clashes took place with armed smuggling gangs in the villages of Hawik, Jarmash, Wadi al-Hourani, and Akoum in Syria during a sweep operation aimed at securing the western borders of the country.
Shaaban mentioned that Syrian forces utilized heavy weapons, including artillery, heavy machine guns, and Shaheen drones, to target the smugglers’ positions in elevated mountainous regions, seeking to close illegal crossings and enhance border monitoring points.
A center of influence and a smuggling station
The al-Qusayr area is considered a center of Hezbollah influence, especially following the al-Qusayr battle in 2013, which resulted in the forcible displacement of Sunni village residents from the area, according to military analyst Nawar Shaaban.
The al-Qusayr battle was the first to witness a clear intervention from the party’s fighters alongside Assad regime forces in combating revolutionary factions.
Shaaban asserted that the area has transformed into a complex network of routes managed by local traders and smugglers, supported by political and military factions, pointing to the central role played by Lebanese Hezbollah in securing and supervising trafficking routes, benefiting from their financial returns to support its activities.
He indicated that its rugged geography has facilitated the smuggling of drugs, weapons, and fuel across the border, coinciding with the aggravation of the economic crisis in Syria and Lebanon.
The city of al-Qusayr serves as a key station for the production and distribution of these narcotic substances, as evidenced by security forces’ operations in controlling warehouses.
According to the researcher, the main actors in smuggling operations belong to well-known families in the region, such as the Zaiter, Jaafar, Dandash, and Noun families.
The Border Security Administration announced the seizure of a “large” number of farms, warehouses, and factories for the manufacturing and packaging of hashish and Captagon pills, along with presses specializing in counterfeiting currency, following an operation carried out in the area.
Numerous shipments of weapons and drugs headed for Lebanon were also seized in border areas.
Possible scenarios
Despite the calm observed in the region and the control of numerous drug production facilities and smuggling centers, challenges keep the future of the region facing three scenarios that vary between diplomatic settlement, military escalation, and the continuation of the current situation, according to Shaaban.
The first scenario is the successful mediation of local authorities in containing the crisis through negotiations, allowing Syrian authorities to strengthen their control over the region while intensifying efforts to secure the border through joint mechanisms between the Syrian and Lebanese armies, thus limiting smuggling activities, along with providing economic alternatives for local populations relying on these activities as a primary source of income.
This scenario could contribute, in the long run, to achieving relative stability, yet it remains fragile due to the likelihood that some informal networks will remain active in scattered areas.
The second scenario envisages a partial dismantling of smuggling networks resulting from continued military escalation.
He noted that escalation would create a concurrent state of insecurity, especially if Hezbollah intervenes directly to protect its interests, which could widen the scope of confrontations to include the Lebanese interior, complicating the relationship between the Syrian and Lebanese armies.
The researcher believes that the complex relationship could lead to regional and international involvement to stabilize the situation, adversely affecting border communities, exacerbating waves of displacement, and hampering economic activity.
The situation could persist without a complete military resolution or a comprehensive political settlement, with smuggling operations continuing but utilizing more developed and secretive methods, which is the third scenario, as mentioned by researcher Shaaban.
He believes that the reconfiguration of smuggling networks to adapt to the new security conditions will lead to increased pressure on Syrian authorities, which will be required to intensify security efforts to prevent further chaos and complication of economic and social challenges faced by local populations, potentially raising rates of poverty and unemployment while prompting international powers to impose targeted policies or sanctions against those involved in smuggling, further complicating the political scene in the region.