Enab Baladi – Hani Karazi

Before the fall of the Syrian regime, the new Syrian administration discussed that Russia could be a potential partner in the future. Moscow responded to this partnership talk with concrete action by sending its envoy to Syria, a visit that left behind many questions regarding what both sides want and the future of the Russian presence on Syrian soil.

The Russian special envoy to the Middle East, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, visited Syria and met with the Syrian transitional president elected by the General Command, Ahmed al-Sharaa. This was the first visit of Russian officials to Damascus since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his escape to Moscow on December 8, 2024.

Discussed files

Discussions focused on key issues, including respect for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, with the Russian side reaffirming its support for the positive changes currently taking place in Syria.

The dialogue also highlighted Russia’s role in rebuilding trust with the Syrian people through tangible measures such as compensation, reconstruction, and recovery.

Both sides engaged in discussions on mechanisms for transitional justice aimed at ensuring accountability and achieving justice for victims of the war waged by the Assad regime.

Journalist and expert on Russian affairs Raed Jaber believes that there are three key files that were central to the Russian meeting in Damascus: the future of the Russian military presence in Syria, Russian economic investments, and the fate of Bashar al-Assad and the officers who aided him along with the file of smuggled funds.

Jaber told Enab Baladi that there is a divergence in the priorities of the two sides. Russia spoke of its desire for reconstruction and provided the example that it previously assisted in building dams and power plants while focusing on respecting Syria’s sovereignty, and balancing the relationships and interests of its companies and bases. Meanwhile, the Syrian administration emphasized transitional justice, including the handing over of Bashar al-Assad, his officers, and their smuggled funds, and opening a new page with Russia on specific terms.

Jaber believes that the Russian visit was significant as it broke the ice between the two sides, and each now knows what the other wants. Therefore, there are upcoming rounds of dialogue to resolve these outstanding issues, noting that the indicators from this visit were positive, and no tensions occurred.

Russia’s eye on its bases

The Russian news agency TASS quoted Bogdanov stating that the issue of maintaining Russian military bases in Syria requires further consultations, and both sides agreed to continue these discussions.

Commenting on the future of Russian military bases in Syria, Bogdanov said, “Nothing has changed,” asserting that this issue requires further negotiations, with an agreement to continue detailed consultations on all topics of cooperation between the two sides.

Earlier, Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra told Reuters that negotiations were ongoing with Russia to define the nature of future relations between the two countries. He added, “We, as a country, are committed to the agreements that were in place previously, but there may be some amendments in the negotiations that would serve Syria’s interests.”

American agency Bloomberg reported that Russia is facing difficulties in retaining two military bases in Syria that have allowed it to assert its influence in the Middle East and Africa.

It quoted an unnamed source stating that negotiations with the new Syrian government are stalled, and Russian activities at the Hmeimim base have been reduced. Two transport ships were left waiting for weeks before Syrian officials allowed them to dock at a naval base in Tartus to remove military equipment.

After the fall of the Assad regime, the Russian presence in Syria has shrunk significantly, currently limited to the Hmeimim military base in Latakia, as well as a base in Tartus.

Raed Jaber sees three scenarios for the future of Russian bases in Syria. The first is the reduction of the Russian presence to a shorter period ranging from five to ten years instead of 49 years, with a gradual Russian withdrawal later. This scenario would satisfy both parties.

The second scenario involves abolishing the Russian presence at the Hmeimim base and reverting to the 1972 agreement that regulates a limited Russian presence in Tartus as a logistical service center, through which Russian ships can refuel and undergo maintenance.

The third scenario involves a complete Russian withdrawal from Syria in exchange for new agreements to use marine and airports, similar to agreements Russia has made with other countries, including Egypt. This scenario would guarantee Moscow the freedom of movement to obtain logistical services without having a permanent Russian presence on Syrian territory.

What does Damascus want from Moscow?

Since the start of the “Deterrence of Aggression” battle until the fall of al-Assad, the new Syrian administration has sent balanced messages to international parties, ensuring that it highlights issues of interest to each country without showing a clear bias or attempting to draw closer to one party at the expense of another.

The new Syrian administration sent a message to Russia, stating that the Syrian people seek to build positive relations based on mutual respect and common interests with all countries of the world, including Russia, which it considers a “potential partner” in building a bright future for Syria.

For his part, Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that Russia is the second strongest country in the world, and the Syrian-Russian relations are based on strategic interests, making them a priority in Damascus’s foreign policy. He clarified that the new administration does not seek to exclude Russia from Syria, as this would contradict the historical nature of the relationship between the two countries.

Russia holds cards that it can play for the new administration, including the possibility of providing internal security support, political support in the Security Council, and obstructing any resolutions that Western countries may attempt to impose.

Russian political analyst Dmitry Bridzhe believes that the new Syrian administration wants Russia to hand over Bashar al-Assad, but Moscow does not want to do this at the moment, as such a step would be a blow to Russian interests, which consider the ousted regime’s head a pressure card in its hands.

Bridzhe added to Enab Baladi that there are no indications that Russia will turn over al-Assad to Syria, but this could occur in the medium to long term in exchange for a specific deal, primarily centered around ensuring the preservation of Russian bases in Syria.

Reuters reported that Ahmed al-Sharaa requested Russia to hand over Bashar al-Assad, noting that the new administration emphasized that restoring relations between Syria and Russia should address past errors, respect the will of the Syrian people, and serve their interests.

In turn, Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for the Russian presidency (the Kremlin), declined to comment on the Syrian administration’s call for compensation to restore trust and the handover of Bashar al-Assad.

Additionally, political analyst specializing in Russian affairs Mahmoud Hamza ruled out the possibility of Russia handing over Bashar al-Assad to the International Criminal Court because Russian President Vladimir Putin is also wanted by the same court. Therefore, handing over al-Assad would place Putin in an awkward position.

Hamza added to Enab Baladi that if Russia faced significant international pressure, it might force al-Assad to leave its territory and travel to another destination such as the UAE.

For his part, journalist Raed Jaber stated that what Moscow wants is to maintain its military bases and the interests of its companies in Syria, in exchange for contributing to what Damascus desires. Russia has extensive experience in army development and repair operations, as well as aerial surveillance intended to monitor and track the Islamic State organization, which Syria indeed needs for its security.

Economically, Jaber believes that Russia does not have sufficient funds to participate in the reconstruction of Syria, but it does have technical expertise such as establishing power generation stations. What encourages the Syrian administration to build relations with Russia is that the latter has a pragmatic approach and is more open to dealing with these issues, not imposing ideological conditions like the West, which sets preconditions (such as democracy and women’s rights) in exchange for executing projects or providing financial support for Syria.

However, the new Syrian administration realizes that total alignment with Russia could lead to the continuation of Western sanctions and hinder reconstruction projects, in addition to international isolation amid the decline of Russian influence globally.