Enab Baladi – Hassan Ibrahim

The threats from the Islamic State group against the new administration in Syria continue, following the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation that led the factions to topple the Assad regime. The group, threatening through its newspaper “Al-Naba,” followed by a 15-minute video release, has maintained an aggressive stance that does not align with the revolution’s demands and the factions’ objectives that it has adhered to for years.

The group stated that if the new administration implements United Nations covenants and laws, it would fall under the duty of war and peace. It claimed that the regime’s fall at the hands of these factions was not outside the scope of international desire and that “the interests of the jihadists and revolutionaries only intersect with it.”

This threat comes in the context of a security situation that remains unstable, amidst cases of chaos and disorder in some regions, and security campaigns that are occasionally interrupted by clashes, as well as the thwarting of a bombing attempt by the Islamic State group in the Sayyida Zainab area, along with efforts by the new administration to arrange military affairs, with the intention of disbanding the factions and forming a professional army.

What is the threat?

The Islamic State group regarded the military factions participating in the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation as “pawns” for Turkey and other countries, claiming they are conducting a “proxy war” between “Turkish pawns and Iranian arms,” as stated through its publication “Al-Naba,” followed by a video release by the Al-Battar Media Foundation (an unofficial supportive entity).

The release recalled part of what the group’s leaders previously said about Syria, including statements from its former spokesman, Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, who claimed that “those who call for a civilian state in Syria are partners and agents for the Jews, the Crusaders, and a new tyrant.”

The Islamic State described the Syrian revolution in several scattered sentences within the release as a “pagan revolution” because it seeks to establish the concept of a civilian state. It stated that it is “a revolution and not a jihad for the sake of Allah,” and that it is a liberation revolution from a repressive regime that monopolizes power to reach another democratic system of shared power.

In the weekly edition of “Al-Naba,” published on December 19, 2024, the Islamic State group attacked the new Syrian administration and its leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, with an editorial titled “Sednaya and Global Hypocrisy,” claiming that Sednaya is just one example of the dozens of prisons that fill the countries in the region, including Iraq, where al-Sharaa has become “the guardian of their temples.”

The group criticized al-Sharaa, accusing him of being responsible for prisons “similar to Sednaya” in Idlib.

Explosion attempt and arrest of an “Emir”

The threat (both written and visual) did not remain confined to media messages; it extended to an attempted explosion within the Sayyida Zainab shrine in rural Damascus, which the General Intelligence Service of the new Syrian administration announced it had foiled on January 11.

A source from the General Intelligence Service accused the Islamic State of being behind the planned explosion, and the Ministry of Interior reported the arrest of several involved individuals, releasing photos of four individuals it claimed belonged to the Islamic State group.

On January 27, a group of fighters from local factions previously in Daraa managed to detain a leader in the Islamic State, “Ataa al-Hariri,” and hand him over to the General Security Service in the town of Kafr Shams in the western rural Daraa.

A local leader residing in the Jidour area told Enab Baladi that the group managed to arrest al-Hariri while he was attempting to smuggle weapons from the area towards the Syrian desert, and they found photos of some local leaders with him, while another vehicle accompanying him managed to escape.

“Ataa al-Hariri” is from the town of Busra al-Harir in eastern rural Daraa, and he is also a resident of the al-Hajar al-Aswad neighborhood in rural Damascus, also nicknamed “Ataa al-Shami.” According to the local leader, al-Hariri is “the Emir of the eastern sector,” having taken his position following the death of the previous leader in the group, “Abu Tariq al-Subahi.”

“Ambition without tools”

The Minister of Defense in the interim Damascus government, Murhaf Abu Qasra, stated in an interview that the danger posed by the Islamic State remains present in Syria, emphasizing that the Ministry continues to work to combat it by all available means, noting coordination with the Ministry of Interior.

Researcher on jihadist groups, Orabi Orabi, believes that the Islamic State is currently in a phase where it requires internal cohesion, especially regarding the issue of attracting recruits in Syria and abroad, with Syria being a secondary priority compared to Africa and possibly Iraq at a later stage.

Orabi told Enab Baladi that the visual release is aimed at media incitement and achieving internal cohesion, as it was not issued by official media but by a subsidiary source; the Al-Battar Media Foundation is not official media but rather subordinate, managed by a person named “Abu Qutaiba” and another named “Osid Abu al-Yaman,” one of whom oversees the institution.

The researcher believes that the threat is merely part of an extensive media hype and incitement without yielding results, pointing out that the Islamic State group has ambition but lacks the tools to realize it.

“Harmful by external assistance”

The Islamic State group has a historical enmity with the fighting factions in Syria, particularly al-Nusra Front (currently Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) and its leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), who has now become the transitional president of the country. Tahrir al-Sham discarded its ties to jihadist organizations and shifted its rhetoric from extremism to moderation.

Researcher on jihadist movements and religious groups, Abdul Rahman al-Haj, stated to Enab Baladi that the Islamic State fundamentally represents a fierce opponent of al-Nusra Front and all opposition factions, especially those of the Free Syrian Army. Therefore, this threat does not add anything new concerning the Islamic State itself, but it may help incite jihadists in the region to attempt to target the state and possibly focus on attacking the new administration’s leadership specifically.

Al-Haj also indicated that the thwarted explosion attempt at the Sayyida Zainab shrine validates the Islamic State’s intent to ignite sectarian tensions, reminiscent of what happened in Iraq after the bombing of the shrines in Samarra, which led to a sectarian war.

The researcher speculated that the attempt at the explosion was likely coordinated with Iranian elements, as it seems implausible for the planning of the operation to coincide with rumors of Maher al-Assad’s return, along with reports of operations by the Lebanese Hezbollah in al-Qusayr area, and the killing of several officers in an area that serves as a “hotspot in the Alawite-Sunni conflict,” where its officers contributed to many massacres in rural Homs.

He believes that the Islamic State coordinates with the adversaries of the new regime in Syria, specifically Iran and remnants of the previous Syrian regime, and has historically coordinated with them to varying degrees in different areas, such as Daraa, Idlib, and northwestern Syria. Therefore, the Islamic State may pose a new threat in sync with the activities of the opponents of the current regime—the post-Assad regime.

We are discussing an ancient rivalry of an organization that is currently suffering from weakened capabilities; however, it can still prove harmful with assistance from the region’s enemies of the new regime.

Dr. Abdul Rahman al-Haj, Researcher in religious movements

According to the researcher, this new impetus is more externally driven than arising from the Islamic State organization’s innate motivations, which clearly shows that its ability to execute operations has significantly declined. He emphasized that the organization is currently struggling to survive and knows it faces an enemy that could completely end its existence in Syria.

Despite a significant decline in its presence, the organization still operates in specific areas in Syria, particularly in the desert region bordering Iraq in eastern Syria, serving as a bastion for the Islamic State. From this area, it has consistently launched attacks.

Its cells have also remained active in southern Syria for years, without clear public announcements from the organization regarding the operations it carries out or is responsible for in that region. Meanwhile, its activity in northern Syria has diminished due to the significant tightening by the factions.

The leadership of the Islamic State has changed hands five times, with each new leader taking over after the predecessor’s death, as is customary for the organization after operations targeting its leaders. They announce the death of the caliph and appoint a new leader in a single recording.

On August 3, 2023, the organization announced the appointment of “Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi” as its fifth leader, through a voice message from the new spokesperson “Abu Hudhayfah.” Currently, there are no available details about the new leader.