Enab Baladi – Hussam al-Mahmoud

The Assad family has not overcome the moment of collapse and the fall of a regime that lasted 53 years over the necks of the Syrians, divided between 29 years for Hafez al-Assad and 24 years for his son Bashar, who came to power through hereditary succession without free elections. He has spent more than half of his rule fighting in vain against the Syrian people’s attempts for political change. Bashar came forward to present his vision for the last day, only for his son to later bring forth the same narrative, at a time when Syrians are moving towards reconstructing what was destroyed by the previous regime, holding onto a memory rich in past wounds, with some files still present, such as the missing persons’ file.

After the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, multiple narratives emerged about the final day of al-Assad and his family in Damascus before his flight to Moscow via the Russian Hmeimim base in Latakia. Al-Assad issued a delayed statement presenting his claims to the Syrian street.

On the 16th of that month, Bashar al-Assad published a statement in Arabic and English through the Syrian Presidency platform that had been accompanying his activities. He claimed his detachment from power and stated that he did not leave Syria in a premeditated manner, asserting that he remained in Damascus “fulfilling his responsibilities” until the early hours of Sunday (the day of the fall).

According to his account, with the “expansion of terrorism” in Syria, he coordinated with the Russians to move to Latakia for what he said was “to continue combat operations” from there. Upon reaching the Hmeimim base, it became apparent that the forces had withdrawn from the frontline, and the last positions of the army fell as the situation on the ground deteriorated further.

Al-Assad, who was received by Moscow under the label of “humanitarian asylum,” mentioned that since it was impossible to exit the Russian base in any direction, Moscow requested the base’s leadership to ensure immediate evacuation to Russia on Sunday evening.

He claimed that throughout those events, the topic of asylum or resigning was not raised by him or by anyone else, and the only option presented was the continuation of fighting “in defense against the terrorist attack,” according to his words.

He also stated in the statement, “I have never been one to seek positions for personal gain; rather, I considered myself a holder of a national project supported by a people who believed in it. I carried the certainty of that people’s will and their ability to safeguard their state and defend its institutions and choices until the last moment,” asserting that “with the state falling into the hands of terrorism, and the inability to provide anything, the position becomes empty and meaningless, and there is no reason for the official to remain in it.”

Al-Assad pointed to several attempts he made that were unsuccessful to publish this statement in Arab and foreign media, which led to its publication on the previous Syrian Presidency platforms.

Al-Assad’s narrative about his escape from Damascus contradicts what was reported by Reuters during that period regarding the hours and days leading to the collapse of al-Assad in Damascus.

The agency stated that Bashar al-Assad prepared a secret plan to flee Syria when his authority was crumbling, without informing most of his aides and government officials, even his close relatives. Reuters cited more than 10 sources stating that al-Assad resorted to deception and secrecy to secure his exit from the country.

He also informed his presidential office director on December 7 (the day before his downfall) that when he finished his work, he would return home, but instead went to the airport.

This narrative published by al-Assad on platforms used for the presidency was met with mockery, disbelief, and accusations from the Syrian street directed at al-Assad for the wounds he left in Syria. It came after failed attempts to spread it through Arab and foreign media, followed by its re-deletion, then republishing it again, before finally deleting it entirely from all accounts.

Moscow might be harmed

Later, the Assad family re-emerged to make statements through Hafez, Bashar’s eldest son, who presented on the “X” platform a story of the last day of the family in Damascus. He attempted to mend the gaps in his father’s narrative while conveying indirect messages in the text, hinting at the army’s abandonment of his father and his father’s desire to remain and “defend” the country, while confirming reports and witnesses that al-Assad traveled even without informing his brother Maher.

The “X” platform closed Hafez Bashar al-Assad’s account, as well as the account of the previous Syrian Presidency, which had been available to Bashar Assad’s regime, shutting down one of the gateways that the Assad family relied upon to communicate messages that some Syrians perceive as provocative, while the country is still healing deep wounds left by the Assad family rule, notably the 112,414 forcibly disappeared persons whose fate remains unknown more than two months after the ousting of al-Assad, according to what was documented by the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR).

Regarding the appearance of al-Assad or members of his family making politically significant statements, and then deleting them, and the possibility of constraints on al-Assad regarding making statements, Russian political analyst Dmitry Bridzhe explained to Enab Baladi that there is a difference between formal laws and orders posed by Russian authorities. There exists an external intelligence agency and an internal agency, the first being related to Russia’s external movements. It is possible for orders to be issued from the Russian president’s administration through various channels, including foreign relations and security, so that al-Assad does not make statements that could harm Moscow’s relations with Damascus.

This is not the first time that Russia has received a “refugee president.” After the ousting of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych (who was president from 2010 to 2014) following widespread popular protests against his government due to its pro-Russian tendencies and refusal to partner with Europeans during the European Maidan revolution between 2013 and 2014, he fled to Moscow where Russia granted him protection and also permitted him media appearances.

Turning the page on al-Assad

In comparing the situations of Yanukovych and al-Assad, Bridzhe emphasizes that Russia has a project in Ukraine, having worked on the “Novorossiya” (New Russia in Ukraine) initiative, which allowed the former Ukrainian president to make statements and announcements. In contrast, the situation in Syria is different; al-Assad has fallen, and Moscow wishes to turn the page, indicating a political isolation for al-Assad and his family. Any differing move would oppose Moscow’s new interests.

The Hebrew newspaper Israel Hayom reported on February 12 that a Russian journalist following al-Assad’s life in Moscow stated that al-Assad resides in an apartment located at the top of a skyscraper in the Moscow City complex, avoiding public appearances out of fear for his safety or concern for his ill wife, and possibly because he is struggling to adapt to his new circumstances.

After a visit by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov to Damascus, Reuters reported that the Syrian transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, requested Moscow to hand over Bashar al-Assad, which the Kremlin refused to officially comment on.

A Russian source, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told Enab Baladi that Bashar al-Assad’s fate is limited to several scenarios, including remaining in Russia with the status quo persisting. This option is deemed unlikely, as it implies future problems that Russia does not want with Syria, which would inherently threaten its interests.

Another scenario is reminiscent of the fate of Yevgeny Prigozhin (the former head of the Wagner Group, who died when his plane crashed in August 2023) or Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny (who died from health complications in prison in Russia in February 2024). His health could deteriorate, which would address some of the ongoing issues between Russia and Syria, while the scenario of handing al-Assad over to Damascus is unlikely as it would leave the impression that Moscow betrays its allies.

Russia has a long history of eliminating and assassinating political figures that posed a threat to its interests at various times, including the assassination of former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006, just days after he was poisoned with radioactive material.

The source indicated that all of Bashar al-Assad’s political cards are burned, and the most likely scenario for al-Assad is assassination. Handing him over would suggest that regimes cooperating with Russia would fear dealing with it, harming Russia’s reputation, and reminiscent of the fates of former Russian allies Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein. Russia does not wish to reopen the history of the past, considering shifts in Russian politics and the possibility of changes in this policy by 2030. If al-Assad remains alive until then, he may be handed over.