Enab Baladi – Khaled al-Jeratli
After the fall of the Syrian regime on December 8, 2024, Egypt monitored the developments in Syria with caution, delaying diplomatic steps toward the new Syrian administration led by Ahmed al-Sharaa.
At a time when many Arab countries were sending representatives to visit Syria, Egypt only engaged with the Damascus government through a phone call between Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and his Syrian counterpart Asaad al-Shibani on December 31, 2024.
Additionally, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi sent congratulations to Ahmed al-Sharaa for assuming the presidency for the transitional phase.
Shortly after Bashar al-Assad was ousted in Syria, the hashtag “It’s your turn, dictator” gained momentum on social media in Egypt, referring to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
The repercussions of events in Syria did not stop there; a political movement advocating for a revolution against the Egyptian regime emerged in Syria.
Days after the fall of the Syrian regime, Egyptian security forces arrested at least 30 Syrian refugees living in Cairo who were celebrating its downfall, according to the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, a human rights group in Egypt.
The Egyptian Foreign Minister previously spoke about the need to “not harbor terrorist elements” on Syrian territory, calling for international efforts to prevent Syria from becoming “a source of instability in the region or a center for terrorist groups.”
Threats from Syria
The security situation in Syria remained unstable even after al-Assad’s departure, as a threat targeting Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi emerged from an Egyptian jihadist who was part of the Syrian opposition factions, named Ahmad al-Mansour.
Following the echoes of discussions about the 25 January Revolutionaries movement established in Syria, the new Syrian authorities took action and arrested the leader of the movement and its founder, Ahmad al-Mansour.
Reuters reported, citing a source from the Syrian Ministry of Interior and a security source in the Arab world, that the new administration arrested Egyptian citizen Ahmad al-Mansour due to “threats directed at the government in Cairo.”
The agency added on January 15 that this step might help alleviate Cairo’s concerns about the new administration in Damascus, “in light of the Egyptian government’s campaign against the Muslim Brotherhood at home.”
According to Reuters sources, Egypt did not directly request the arrest of Ahmad al-Mansour but expressed its anger due to “the re-emergence of radical opponents in Syria through intelligence contacts with third countries,” feeling that “disruptions” in Syria could enable these factions to regroup.
The “Official Spokesperson” account on “X” published, on January 14, a statement from the 25 January Revolutionaries movement, stating that “Ahmad Hamad al-Mansour was arrested or went missing in Damascus along with several of his comrades.”
The movement’s account mentioned that al-Mansour, before his disappearance, was invited to meet Syrian Defense Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra.
The movement called on the current Syrian government leadership to quickly release movement leader Ahmad al-Mansour.
It stated that it “does not want in any way to cause the Syrian brothers any embarrassment in their international and regional relations (…) and would like everyone to know that the presence of the Egyptian people, inside and outside, is capable of managing its rights, regardless of the geographic location of its leaders, and is capable of fulfilling its duties in confronting the violations committed by El-Sisi, just as the Syrian people faced the killer Bashar al-Assad.”
Ahmad al-Mansour is one of the non-Syrian fighters who participated in military operations against Bashar al-Assad’s regime and previously worked under the current Minister of Defense Murhaf Abu Qasra.
Challenges facing relations
The development of relations between the new Syria and Egypt is linked to a series of challenges and cautions that Egypt faces, even though Damascus has repeatedly attempted to send reassuring messages to Cairo that the Syrian revolution is over and there is no ideology advocating the export of the revolution to any other country.
Egyptian researcher at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Karam Saeed believes that several challenges still push Egypt to approach what is happening in Syria with a degree of “extreme diplomacy” to this day, including the presence of a number of foreign fighters, including Egyptians, who joined the armed Syrian revolution, some of whom are wanted by the judiciary in Egypt.
He added to Enab Baladi that these individuals must also be handed over to their countries, noting that this is not Egypt’s viewpoint alone, but rather the viewpoint of broader sectors of regional and international powers.
Many forces around the world are waiting to see how things will evolve inside Syria in the coming phase, considering that the new directions that the new administration will reveal will determine the nature and directions of future decisions regarding the Syrian scene.
What does Egypt want?
Egypt has been present in the Syrian scene since its inception, even though Cairo’s position has changed with the change of regimes in the country, from the former president Mohamed Morsi, who supported the Syrian revolution, to the current president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who preferred to take a neutral stance before later taking steps to re-engage with the ousted regime.
After the February 2023 earthquake, the Egyptian Foreign Minister visited Syria and met with Syrian officials, in a gesture that was the first of its kind since the severing of diplomatic relations between the ousted Assad and Cairo in 2011.
Researcher Karam Saeed stated that Cairo also has an interest in strengthening relations with the Syrian side but under the condition of ensuring the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity and building a political system capable of accommodating all Syrian factions.
He pointed out that Egypt acknowledges and realizes the regional and international openness to the new Syrian administration, and thus Cairo cannot continue to adopt a cautious policy all the time, particularly in light of this international openness, especially towards Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and others in the region.
Saeed believes that Ahmed al-Sharaa wants to expand his alliances in the region and enhance the new administration’s engagement with Arab and regional entities, which drove him to make a visit to Saudi Arabia as his first foreign trip, preceded by communications with the UAE, Jordan, and Qatar.
As is the case with the Arab countries that Damascus has contacted, there is also a desire from the new Syrian administration to enhance engagement with Cairo, considering it “a significant state in the region” due to its extensive assets and capabilities that enable it to have a clear impact on regional interactions, according to Saeed.