Enab Baladi – Khaled al-Jeratli
The new authorities in Syria are engaging in talks to reach understandings aimed at alleviating the factional struggles locally, and the sanctions at both the economic and political levels, while the stalemate in northeastern Syria remains resistant to what has been proposed so far, with only minor movements being observed in the file every now and then, following the fall of the Syrian regime.
Amid the conflicting messages being sent by the United States regarding its position on the matter, the parties await the incoming administration of elected President Donald Trump to build on this position, while Turkey strives vigorously to end the presence of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), allied with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the region, and continues to launch military operations in the area for this purpose.
On the other side of the scene, the new Syrian administration is negotiating to reach a diplomatic formula that would persuade the SDF to dissolve itself and join the newly established Ministry of Defense, similar to other local Syrian factions. However, no progress has been noted in the file amid pressures exerted on the SDF itself, making its position wavering, which complicates the scene further.
Unprecedented steps
Efforts towards reaching solutions began through negotiations with the new Syrian administration, coinciding with military pressure exerted by the Syrian National Army (SNA) with Turkish support on the SDF east of Aleppo, but this pressure stopped following an American mediation that imposed a ceasefire preventing advancement and retreat in the area, although it did not stop the mutual shelling and targeting.
Despite the SDF sending repeated signals about “positive” discussions with Damascus, no change has occurred in the overall picture of events, as none of its demands have been met, nor has it moved to achieve any of Damascus’ demands.
The state of stalemate in the scene necessitated the intervention of external parties that have been at odds with the SDF over the past years, including the Government of Iraqi Kurdistan, represented by the former president of the region, Masoud Barzani.
In an unprecedented step, the commander of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, met with the former president of Iraqi Kurdistan, Masoud Barzani, in the capital of the region, Erbil, in what is considered the first of its kind since the establishment of the SDF.
A member of the political bureau of the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party in Iraqi Kurdistan, Hoshyar Zebari, announced that a meeting was held in Erbil between Masoud Barzani and Mazloum Abdi, who came from northeastern Syria.
Zebari stated in a post on “X” that the meeting was held on January 16 of the current year in Erbil between Barzani and Abdi.
He considered that the meeting is “a significant achievement to promote Kurdish unity.”
He pointed out that this step will enable the new Syrian rulers in Damascus to achieve a smooth political transition.
No details were released about the meeting, but observers believe it was part of the Iraqi Kurdistan government’s efforts, allied with Turkey, to find a formula for a solution without resorting to military action in the region.
Also, on December 19, 2024, a historic step was recorded for the commander of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, when he promised to withdraw foreign fighters from his forces, urging them to leave Syria, in an implicit acknowledgment of the presence of these fighters after years of denial.
Abdi stated to Reuters at the time that the Kurdish fighters who came to Syria from various parts of the Middle East to support the Syrian Kurdish forces would leave if a complete ceasefire is reached in the conflict with Turkey.
The withdrawal of non-Syrian Kurdish fighters is one of Turkey’s main demands, which considers the SDF, dominant in northeastern Syria, a threat to its national security and supports a new military campaign against it.
Although Abdi’s steps constituted a goodwill gesture towards making concessions to maintain some gains, neighboring Turkey was not convinced to halt limited military operations against the SDF in the region, nor did Damascus lower its demands.
The head of the new Syrian administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, stipulates the existence of basic rules for resolving the ongoing issue in northeastern Syria, which are:
- No division in Syria in any form, even if federal.
- The departure of foreign fighters who cause problems for neighboring countries.
- Arms should be restricted to the hands of the state only.
The fluctuating position of the SDF
On January 16 of the current year, Reuters quoted a representative from the PKK (unnamed) stating that the PKK would agree to leave northeastern Syria if the SDF, allied with the United States, maintained a leading role.
The official, who holds a position in the political bureau of the SDF, added that “any initiative leading to governance in northeastern Syria under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces or having a significant joint leadership role will lead us to agree to leave the area.”
The statement from the SDF official, associated with the PKK, contradicted what Mazloum Abdi previously stated to Reuters regarding the departure of foreign fighters from the PKK starting once a ceasefire with Turkey is reached.
The conflicting statements did not stop with what was recently reported by Reuters; Abdi had previously expressed his willingness to engage in military integration with the Syrian opposition, stating to The Times about a month ago, that his forces, consisting of 100,000 members, are ready to dissolve themselves and join the new Syrian army.
Recently, Abdi went beyond his faction’s willingness to dissolve itself, refusing to join the new army as individuals, but rather as a military bloc.
Researcher at the Jusoor For Studies Center, Anas Shawakh, believes that the SDF is facing pressures from the PKK to change some of its positions, and he suggested that if these pressures continue, they could lead to the failure of attempts to find solutions in the region.
Shawakh told Enab Baladi that the pressures being exerted on the SDF leadership might end the ongoing path; however, events could take a different course, potentially dragging the region toward escalation or military confrontation.
What does Barzani hold for Syria?
From Erbil, Mazloum Abdi appeared in formal attire for the first time, abandoning his military clothing.
Following the meeting, Abdi wrote on “X” that he discussed with President Masoud Barzani the changes taking place in Syria.
Regarding the content of the meeting, Abdi said, “We discussed the transitional phase that Syria is going through, and we both affirmed the necessity of unifying the Kurdish position in Syria and that dialogue with Damascus should protect the rights of the Kurdish people peacefully.”
According to a statement issued by Erbil, reported by the Rudaw news agency, Barzani received the commander-in-chief of the SDF on January 16 of the current year in Erbil and emphasized the necessity for Kurdish parties in Syria to decide their fate without interference from any party and through peaceful means.
Barzani spoke of the need to reach an understanding and agreement with the new rulers in Syria to ensure their rights through unity and a common stance.
Anas Shawakh, during his talk with Enab Baladi, mentioned that changes are imminent for northeastern Syria in any case, but Barzani’s intervention is seen as an indicator of increasing the likelihood of one of the scenarios for change, specifically the scenario that involves forming a unified Kurdish political reference from both sides to partake in negotiations with the central government in Damascus.
Such negotiations could create a foundation for military participation from the Syrian Peshmerga (Rojava Peshmerga) in deploying in areas with a Kurdish majority after the deployment of Damascus’ forces in other regions.
Attempts at understandings under international sponsorship
What the SDF wants is not entirely a secret, as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), which is its political umbrella, announced in the Social Contract, revealed at the end of 2023, its conditions for establishing relations with what it referred to as the “Democratic Republic of Syria.”
The Social Contract in Article “120” states that “the nature of the relationship in the Democratic Republic of Syria is determined between the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and the central authority (Damascus) and other regions at all levels according to a democratic concordant constitution.”
It noted that this matter is subject to modification if a “democratic constitution” is agreed upon in Syria.
It also stipulated that the Autonomous Administration must have a special center and a flag to fly alongside the flag of the “Democratic Republic of Syria.”
While the demands of the Autonomous Administration and the SDF are considered difficult to implement by Damascus, the movements of Erbil in northeastern Syria are linked to them being international actions aimed at causing change in the region.
Researcher specializing in northeastern Syria affairs, Samer al-Ahmad, told Enab Baladi that the movements in Erbil are part of efforts toward understanding under international sponsorship regarding the future of the region.
He added that resolving Kurdish-Kurdish disputes is a step towards resolving the SDF’s issues with Turkey and the central authority in Damascus.
Al-Ahmad speculated that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) might obstruct the attempts for a resolution, as it does not desire calm in the region since its withdrawal would mean losing human resources and economic influence.
He argued that Barzani aims to establish the Kurdish National Council as a partner for the SDF in any future negotiations regarding solutions in the region.
At the same time, al-Ahmad ruled out arriving at a solution at the present time, especially with Turkey’s insistence on its demands for the SDF to be dissolved and the PKK to leave Syria, given the organic link between the two parties.
Impact of US movements
On December 17, 2024, the US State Department announced the extension of the ceasefire agreement between the SDF and the “Dawn of Freedom” Operations Room, affiliated with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, near the city of Manbij in eastern Aleppo.
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated in a press conference, “It is clear that the United States will seek to extend this ceasefire as much as possible in the future.”
Only two days after the US announcement, Turkey denied any existing ceasefire.
The Turkish Ministry of Defense announced that it did not agree to any ceasefire with the SDF, according to a statement reported by the Turkish Anadolu Agency.
The statement read, “It is out of the question for us to meet with any terrorist organization; we believe that this is merely a slip of the tongue.”
The American efforts culminated in halting advances in eastern Aleppo, but they did not stop the ongoing military strikes, while leaving a mark on American movements regarding this issue.
Researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, Osama Sheikh Ali, believes that Washington might be behind Barzani’s intervention and his recent stance towards the SDF.
He added that Barzani’s proposal to Abdi focused on trying to convince him to concede some conditions in favor of Damascus and not push the region toward war.
He ruled out any role for the Kurdish National Council, especially with the previous experiences of the parties to reach agreements that lead to consensus on governing the region.
The relationship between the SDF and the Kurdish National Council is based on years-long disputes that extend into the Kurdistan region of Iraq, where there are disagreements between two Kurdish currents, namely the “Barzanis” (currently represented by Masoud Barzani) and the “Talabani” (represented by Bafel Talabani).
The SDF allies with the Talabanis, based in the city of Sulaymaniyah in Iraqi Kurdistan, who are also allied with the PKK, while the Kurdish National Council leans towards the Barzanis, who are close to Turkey.
Disputes arose between the SDF and the Kurdish National Council, which resulted in preventing the council from engaging in any form of governance in northeastern Syria, and military groups loyal to the SDF and its components have worked to arrest members of the council, with some still imprisoned today.