Israeli military vehicles continue to move in southern Syria, with unclear objectives regarding their purposes and the duration of the Israeli army’s presence to scour the area.
From time to time, Israel announces the confiscation of weapons, with the most recent incident occurring on January 15, when the spokesperson for the Israeli army to the Arab media, Avichai Adraee, stated that the army found over 3,300 weapons and documents in southern Syria.
He added via “X” that the 210th Division of the Israeli army continues to carry out its “forward defense” mission in Syria, emphasizing that this mission aims to ensure the safety and protection of the residents of Israel, particularly the Golan Heights occupied by Israel.
Israeli movements in southern Syria coincided with American forecasts that a “peace agreement” could take place between Syria and Israel within a few years, without providing details on the reasons or backgrounds of this belief.
While the new Syrian administration struggles to curb Israeli movements that began over a month ago, at the initial moments of the fall of the regime of ousted president Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024, the region witnessed tension manifesting in an Israeli strike targeting Syrian military vehicles.
On January 15, an Israeli strike targeted a vehicle within a military convoy belonging to the Military Operations Administration, which took charge in Damascus, while present in the village of Ghadir al-Bustan, located on the administrative border of Quneitra with Daraa.
The strike resulted in the death of the chief of Ghadir al-Bustan and injuries to his two sons, as well as injuries to one member of the General Security Service.
What are Damascus’ options?
In discussing Israel’s incursion into Syrian territory, the commander of the new Syrian administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, stated that Israel had been using the presence of Iran, the former regime, and Hezbollah as justification for bombing Syria and its advances in the buffer zone.
During a joint press conference with the Qatari foreign minister, he expressed readiness to welcome UN forces in the buffer zone to restore the situation to what it was before the Israeli advance.
He added that he had informed the international parties from the very first moments of Syria’s respect for the 1974 agreement and readiness to welcome and protect UN forces, noting that all countries agree on the “mistake” of the Israeli advance and the need to retreat to what it was before their recent incursion.
Swedish fellow researcher specializing in Syrian affairs at the Century International Center, Aron Lund, views the new authorities in Syria as having little to offer in curbing Israeli movements in Syria.
He added to Enab Baladi that from a military perspective, the Syrian authorities have no chance to confront Israel in the current situation, and from a political standpoint, it was expected that they aim to avoid confrontation with Israel since such a confrontation, if it occurs, could harm their negotiations with the United States.
Lund considered that Damascus would need to establish a functioning relationship with the Trump government to ensure that sanctions are lifted and the terrorism designation is suspended.
He noted that Damascus might also benefit from communications with Washington in an effort to deal with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria.
What is Israel’s goal?
On January 10 of this year, an Israeli newspaper revealed a plan aimed at expanding Israel’s influence in Syrian territory by a depth of 15 kilometers militarily and 60 kilometers intelligently.
Yedioth Ahronoth cited “senior” Israeli officials (whom it did not name), stating that Tel Aviv would maintain military control 15 kilometers deep inside Syria to ensure that supporters of the new regime (the new Syrian administration) would not be able to launch missiles at the Golan Heights.
The Israeli army, in its official rhetoric regarding the events unfolding in Syria, claims that Israel focuses on securing the occupied Golan from “extremist threats,” as reported by Yedioth Ahronoth on December 14, 2024.
Israeli newspapers, including Yedioth Ahronoth, previously quoted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as saying, “We have no intention of interfering in its (Syria’s) internal affairs, but it is clear that we intend to do whatever is necessary to ensure our security.”
Researcher Aron Lund views the reasons for Israeli intervention in Syria as stemming from its ability to do so, and only that.
He said, “It seems Israel has seized new territories in Syria simply because it can and no one cares enough to stop it.”
He anticipated that Israel would attempt to retain this area without formally annexing it, potentially including other areas in the buffer zone established by the United Nations.
Lund pointed out that the recovery of these areas is possible if there were some international pressure, but it currently appears that there is no such pressure.
The occupied Golan
Israel occupied most of the Golan Heights in 1967, declaring its annexation in 1981, a step recognized only by the United States. Syrian forces are not permitted to enter the buffer zone under a ceasefire agreement signed in 1973.
Approximately 23,000 Syrians inhabit the occupied Golan, whose presence dates back to before the occupation, most of whom retain Syrian nationality, in addition to about 30,000 Israeli settlers.
Over the years, the ousted Assad regime has accused Israel of supporting opposition factions along the Golan’s borders, especially in the Quneitra countryside and adjacent areas.
In 2018, the ousted regime regained control over southern Syria with Russian support, known at the time as the “settlement agreement,” which led to the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from opposition factions and the relocation of those refusing the settlement to the last stronghold of the opposition in northwestern Syria.
During the same timeframe, regime forces returned to their positions close to the border with the occupied Golan, while Russia was stationed in areas of Quneitra and Daraa provinces before withdrawing from them at the beginning of its war in Ukraine.