While the new Syrian administration seeks to impose security and stability through military and security operations targeting what it calls the “remnants of the previous regime,” several questions arise about the effectiveness of these campaigns in achieving their goals, amidst fears and warnings of the organized spread and expansion of armed attacks.

The Syrian Ministry of Interior refers to the “remnants” as anyone who was part of the security forces or army under Assad’s regime and has not reconciled their status or surrendered their weapons.

The new Syrian administration has carried out numerous military and security campaigns, targeting areas such as the coastal cities of Syria, Homs, Hama, Aleppo, and Damascus. These campaigns included executing raids, searching for weapons, and arresting hundreds of individuals.

In response, the “remnants of the regime” have carried out attacks targeting the General Security Service, the latest being on January 14, when a patrol was attacked in Jableh, resulting in the deaths of two and injuring others from the General Security Service, and the capture of seven from the patrol.

On the same day, the General Security Service announced the liberation of the hostages after clashing with the group and killing its leader, Bassam Hussam al-Din, who threatened to execute the prisoners.

Consolidating stability

The media office of the Ministry of Interior in the interim government of Damascus reported to Enab Baladi that many of the regime’s remnants are sheltering in residential areas, endangering civilian lives, as these groups conduct “criminal operations including kidnapping and theft.”

It added that cooperation between security forces and local residents is essential to prevent the return of the remnants and maintain civil peace and stability.

Regarding the importance of these campaigns, military analyst Colonel Ahmed Hamada stated in an interview with Enab Baladi that the security campaigns carried out by the new administration aim to establish state authority over all Syrian territory, end fragmentation, and ensure people are subjected to justice and authority, as well as confiscate the weapons prevalent among the population, especially heavy and medium arms.

Hamada added that continuous security campaigns are necessary until the remnants of Assad’s regime or those inciting against the new administration are eradicated.

He believes that these campaigns will not conclude soon, as many refuse to surrender their weapons, “in addition to the prevalence of thieves, shabiha, and those benefiting from the current chaos.”

Researcher at the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies, Nawar Shaaban, described the security campaigns as “successful,” since they have acted as a pressure tool on the remnants’ elements, leading to a decrease in the intensity of clashes and an increase in reconciliation efforts. He added, “We expected the battles and clashes to be fierce and more difficult than they are now; however, the situation can currently be classified as stable.”

Several phases

The new Syrian administration seeks to return Syrians to their normal lives through procedures including security settlements, surrendering weapons, and returning to civil life as the first step, according to what was mentioned by the Ministry of Interior to Enab Baladi.

The ministry explained that security forces are working to pursue the remnants and deal firmly with them in the event of any attacks on civilians or government institutions.

It also confirmed that the door is open for anyone wishing to be part of the new Syria, indicating that the law is decisive.

Military analyst Colonel Adib Aliwi views the campaigns executed by the new administration as a phase out of three phases.

During an interview with Enab Baladi, Aliwi considered the first phase to be military, aimed at searching areas and confiscating weapons, including dividing regions into several sectors, fully combing the area, cutting off roads, and establishing fixed checkpoints.

This is followed by a second security phase that utilizes many elements and methods of intimidation and inducement to contain the numbers of remnants and control weapons stockpiles.

In the third phase, the loose weapons will be collected according to a program with references in the United Nations, according to Aliwi.

The remnants are trying to buy time and play on the notion of being subjected to violations as a minority group; “however, their criminal behavior places them in direct targeting, as was the case with the leader Bassam Hussam al-Din, whose actions provoked public outcry against him,” according to researcher Nawar Shaaban.

He added that the remnants do not have a clear goal for controlling a specific geographical area.

Organized movements

Officers from the previous regime who were harmed by the liberation of Syria are seeking to organize operations targeting military and security forces to create chaos in the country, according to what the Ministry of Interior reported to Enab Baladi.

Military analyst Colonel Ahmed Hamada believes that the movements of the remnants are not individual cases, predicting fundamental support exists for them, especially with the presence of parties and countries that have lost their positions due to the current situation.

Researcher Nawar Shaaban indicated that with the collapse of the hierarchical leadership of Assad’s regime, these formations lost the ability to organize themselves, making all actions dependent on a specific geography, as demonstrated in the battles of Kherbet Hamam near al-Qusayr.

The Military Operations Administration conducted a campaign targeting military militias led by Shuja’a al-Ali, holed up in Kherbet Hamam in the countryside of Homs, which has long been their activity hub. He preferred to stay in his area rather than leave it and join the other remnants due to the disruption of communication with Assad’s regime leaders.

Al-Ali’s groups are active in the western countryside of Homs, on the Syrian-Lebanese border, and are accused of conducting many kidnapping and extortion operations against civilians over the years.

The danger lies in the remnants clustering and transitioning to a phase of organization if the security campaigns do not yield direct results, although the proactive and swift movement of the Military Operations Administration has prevented them from being able to reorganize.

While military analyst Colonel Adib Aliwi views the movements of the remnants primarily as individual cases, he noted they are beginning to transform into organized cases, especially following recent Iranian statements.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, previously accused the US and Israel of being behind the downfall of the Assad regime.

He stated that “occupied areas” would be reclaimed by what he referred to as “patriotic Syrian youths.”

In contrast, the Foreign Minister of the Damascus interim government, Asaad al-Shibani, warned Iran against spreading chaos in Syria.

With the launch of the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation on November 27, 2024, which ended with the regime’s collapse on December 8, 2024, signs of disintegration began to appear in Assad’s forces, accompanied by the escape and disappearance of commanders and individuals from the army and security who committed human rights violations, whose fate or whereabouts remain unknown to this day.