After nearly six years of local and international pressure, the Guardians of Religion Organization (Huras al-Din), the al-Qaeda branch in Syria, announced its dissolution on January 28, which marked a public end to one of the most prominent branches of al-Qaeda globally. However, this raises questions about the future of al-Qaeda’s presence in Syria.

The public emergence of al-Qaeda in Syria began after the dispute between al-Nusra Front and Islamic State of Iraq. Al-Nusra Front announced in April 2013 its allegiance to al-Qaeda, which is considered the mother organization of both al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State.

The appearance of the al-Qaeda organization in Syria began in late 2011 when its members started entering the country under the slogan “Support the People of the Levant.”

Not the end of al-Qaeda in Syria

Dr. Azzam al-Kassir, a researcher specializing in the study of Islamist movements and transformations in jihadist Salafism, affirmed that the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion Organization is positive because its external affiliations would have continued to create problems and challenges in the future.

However, it should be noted that the Guardians of Religion has never had sufficient power to pose a serious threat to security and stability, due to the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) over the organization and its knowledge of its movements and spread.

What has changed today, according to al-Kassir, is that the Guardians of Religion is no longer serving any purpose; rather, its existence has become a burden on the current administration, which is preoccupied with major files, such as enhancing communication and coordination with external parties, and providing assurances of its ability to control the situation in Syria post-Assad, ensuring that Syria does not become a launchpad for operations that may threaten international peace.

Previously, the presence of the Guardians of Religion Organization indirectly served Tahrir al-Sham by projecting an image to the outside world as a party less extreme than others and as a guarantor against the expansion of al-Qaeda and Islamic State organizations. Today, “that necessity has vanished,” according to al-Kassir.

Expert on jihadist groups Hassan Abu Haniyeh told Enab Baladi that the announcement of the Guardians of Religion’s dissolution does not mean the end of al-Qaeda in Syria. The decision came in line with the leadership center of the organization in Khorasan (Afghanistan and Pakistan).

Abu Haniyeh clarified that the al-Qaeda project in Syria will continue, and there remains a question of whether the Guardians of Religion will position themselves in Syria security-wise or integrate into the new administration.

Regarding how the al-Qaeda project would continue, Abu Haniyeh speculated that its members might remain in a dormant state, pointing out that the organization, in its dissolution statement, called for not laying down arms, which creates a dilemma for the new leadership.

The Guardians of Religion have not abandoned their vision of maintaining their objectives, but “with the changing circumstances, they will certainly reevaluate their approach while waiting for the outcome of the situation. Syria still has a significant amount of work to do and remains unstable on the security and military levels (stability is fragile),” according to Abu Haniyeh.

The jihadist situation in Syria will resemble the Taliban’s presence in Afghanistan, meaning that al-Qaeda will exist but not as an official entity, “rather in an unseen capacity, present as a project,” according to Abu Haniyeh.

Two fighters carrying the flag of the Guardians of Religion Organization in Idlib countryside (Sham al-Ribat Foundation)

What was mentioned in the dissolution statement

In its statement announcing its dissolution, the Guardians of Religion Organization said, “In light of these developments on the Levantine scene, and by an Emiri decision from the General Command of al-Qaeda, we announce to our Muslim nation and to the Sunnis in the Levant the dissolution of the organization of Guardians of Religion, a branch of al-Qaeda in Syria.”

The organization attributed its dissolution to the recent developments in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, as a result of the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation launched by the Military Operations Administration on November 27, 2024.

The statement dissolving the Guardians of Religion included “advice” and promises rooted in the organization’s literature derived from the mother organization “al-Qaeda,” particularly regarding future battles.

It “advised the notables of the Levant” and those leading the current scene to “establish religion and enforce Sharia,” and to keep weapons in the hands of “Sunnis in the Levant, so that the nation remains armed and is not enslaved by a tyrant, nor coveted by an occupier.”

The organization stated, “We advise Sunnis in the Levant not to relinquish their weapons and to prepare themselves for the upcoming stages that our Prophet Muhammad foretold. The Levant is the land of great battles, a graveyard for tyrants and colonizers, and a camp for Muslims in their struggle against the Jews and their allies among the enemies of the faith.”

The organization confirmed that it remains ready “for any call for support and assistance in any part of the Muslim lands (…) and we will maintain our religious constants without change, alteration, or dilution; establishing religion, supporting the oppressed, and preserving the blood of Muslims are among our foremost constants that we owe to Allah.”

A gesture of good faith

The decision to dissolve the Guardians of Religion came as a “gesture of good faith” toward the new leadership in Syria, according to Hassan Abu Haniyeh, “to remove any justification for fighting (the Guardians of Religion), because the American conditions on (Tahrir al-Sham) are severe with regard to combating (Islamic State) and (al-Qaeda), and thus they want to at least give (Tahrir al-Sham) a chance.”

All of this depends on the shape and nature of the political system in Syria, and re-alignments will occur one way or another, as Abu Haniyeh notes.

Since its founding in Syria in 2018, the Guardians of Religion Organization has not controlled any land or specific area, and has primarily used light weapons such as AK-47 rifles, mortars, and rocket shells in its attacks against Syrian regime positions.

The diminishing influence of the organization was due to Tahrir al-Sham’s pressure on its leaders and members, especially following the Moscow agreement on March 5, 2020, which prevented Tahrir al-Sham from conducting any military operations except within the al-Fath al-Mubin Operations Room (which included several factions alongside Tahrir al-Sham).

In June 2020, Tahrir al-Sham thwarted an attempt by the Guardians of Religion and other jihadist groups, most of which follow al-Qaeda’s ideology, to organize themselves within the Stand Firm Operations Room.

The organization faced further pressure from the International Coalition, which monitored the movements of its leaders and carried out several airstrikes that killed several leaders.

Notable leaders killed in airstrikes include Khaled al-Arouri, aka “Abu al-Qassam the Jordanian” (the former military chief), and “Abu Abd al-Rahman the Meccan” and “Abu Muhammad the Sudanese” (two influential clerics within the organization), as well as several al-Qaeda leaders killed in coalition strikes, most notably “Abu Firas the Syrian” in 2016 and “Abu al-Khayr the Egyptian” in 2017, prior to the establishment of the Guardians of Religion Organization.

During the “Deterrence of Aggression” battles that resulted in the regime’s fall, there were no indications of the organization’s participation in the fighting.

“Crown jewel of al-Qaeda”

Abu Haniyeh clarified that the presence of al-Qaeda in Syria is within the establishment of the al-Qaeda project in the Levant to achieve its primary foothold, which is “to confront the United States and Israel (the crusaders and Jews),” which is the fundamental building block that the organization’s founder and leader Osama bin Laden established, that is, “the global front to fight the Jews and crusaders.”

Abu Haniyeh described the importance of Syria to al-Qaeda as the “crown jewel in the confrontation with Israel,” according to the organization’s ideology, noting that the dissolution of the Guardians of Religion is not final, and that with changing circumstances, it may announce itself and its presence in one form or another or join the Islamic State.

Even with its dissolution, al-Qaeda will not disappear, as its core project revolves around the Levant concerning the Palestinian cause in the end, thus it is subject to internal, regional, and international transformations and dynamics.

Fighters in the Guardians of Religion Organization in northwestern Syria – January 19, 2020 (Sham al-Ribat Foundation)

Al-Qaeda strategy

After the Arab Spring revolutions, al-Qaeda adopted a strategy to build local jihadist entities that follow it. This was evident in the Ansar al-Sharia project, of which al-Nusra Front is a part, to integrate with local issues (local jihad) but without neglecting global issues (global jihad), according to Abu Haniyeh.

Al-Qaeda also emphasized the local and global dimensions based on directives set by its former leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, in 2014. The organization maintained a pattern of confronting the distant enemy first, which is the United States, the West, and Israel, while also paying attention to local affairs.

However, local dynamics began to overpower, and al-Qaeda started to operate in an “in-between” framework, representing the middle school of jihadist groups, according to Abu Haniyeh’s classification, which includes:

• The Local National School: This school integrates into the local structure based on a commitment to the nation-state and national borders, represented primarily by the Taliban and then Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. It is rooted in jihadist movements that originally began as local movements.
• The Middle School (in-between): This operates on both local and global levels, and local activity may be confined to national borders. Some branches may have both local and global activities, like al-Qaeda’s branch in Yemen.
• The School that Integrates Local and Global: This school is represented by the Islamic State group.

Abu Haniyeh noted that the Islamic State would begin restructuring in Syria, attempting to attract fighters either from dissatisfied elements of Tahrir al-Sham due to the new administration steps or from al-Qaeda. This will lead to a strong local branch of the Islamic State emerging within Syria.

Since the elimination of the last strongholds of the group in Syrian cities and villages in March 2019 (the village of al-Baghouz in eastern Deir Ezzor), the Islamic State’s cells turned to the Syrian desert, which became a launching point for these cells to attack the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or the former regime, as their controlled areas border the Syrian desert.

After the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, the areas controlled by the new administration bordered the desert, which could facilitate attacks on the new administration’s elements by the Islamic State cells, especially given the historical enmity between the Islamic State and the other factions recently integrated into the Syrian Ministry of Defense.

In August 2023, the Islamic State accused Tahrir al-Sham of killing its fourth leader, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi, in clashes in Idlib, then handing over his body to Turkish intelligence and arresting the group’s spokesperson, Abu Omar al-Muhajir.

The Islamic State threatened the interim government in Damascus, in a video released on January 24 of this year, if it applied the laws and charter of the United Nations in peace and war.

In its statement, the Guardians of Religion Organization considered the military factions participating in the operation “Deterrence of Aggression,” which toppled the Assad regime, as “pawns” in the hands of Turkey and other states, claiming that they are “conducting a proxy war” between “Turkish pawns and Iranian arms” to achieve better gains at negotiation tables, such as Astana, which “draws the future of Syria, a free future that the awakenings aspire to.”