Enab Baladi – Hussam al-Mahmoud
On December 13, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated, “We will go to Damascus as soon as possible and embrace our brothers there affectionately. We will recite al-Fatiha at the grave of Saladin and pray in the Umayyad Mosque.” He made this statement in 2012 when the ousted Bashar al-Assad regime was intensifying its crackdown on a peaceful revolution that had started across all Syrian cities in 2011.
The “as soon as possible” that Erdoğan mentioned was not close in reality, but it did happen at least, albeit differently. Turkey recorded its first official diplomatic visit to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, when Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalın visited Damascus, prayed in the Umayyad Mosque, and also met with the commander of the Military Operations Administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa (al-Jolani), on December 12.
This Turkish visit is considered the first by a diplomatic delegation since the fall of the ousted Assad regime, and it is also the first by a Turkish official in 13 years, following the visit of then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu to Syria, where he met Bashar al-Assad in August 2011 and also visited Hama during the protests demanding al-Assad’s departure. This visit marked the beginning of a deterioration in relations between Ankara and Damascus, leading to a political rift that persisted until the opposition toppled al-Assad’s rule.
Turkey’s presence in the Syrian file is not a random or fleeting event, nor is it a result of the latest developments. Still, the last week has reinforced Ankara’s role at the expense of diminishing the roles of Tehran and Moscow, al-Assad’s fiercest allies.
Strategic expert and non-resident researcher at the Stimson Institute in Washington, Amer al-Sabaileh, explained to Enab Baladi that Turkey’s swift move is a clear signal and holds significant symbolism—Turkey is poised to be the main player, perhaps the most prominent, in Syria during the upcoming period, especially as its allies have become the face of governance in Syria.
Furthermore, regarding the planned Qatari delegation’s visit to Damascus on Sunday, to meet with officials in the “new administration,” the researcher noted that these movements express old visions linked to the Syrian revolution and the previous era, indicating that both Turkey and Qatar are sending the message that their allies currently dominate the Syrian political scene, positioning themselves as gateways for dialogue with Damascus on both international and regional levels.
Following the message sent by the King of Bahrain to Ahmed al-Sharaa on December 12, in his capacity as the President of the Arab Summit, expressing readiness for consultation and support, the researcher believed there are no hindrances to Arab transitions to discuss and communicate with Damascus. The Aqaba meeting indicated necessary steps from Damascus, which means the door is currently open without negating a waiting period as a unified vision is being formed among the Arab Liaison Committee for practical steps on the ground.
Last Saturday, the Arab Liaison Committee supported a peaceful political transition in Syria under UN sponsorship following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad.
Conveying concerns and recommendations
The Turkish visit to Damascus carried clear political symbolism, following Ankara’s attempts to reach a political solution rejected by al-Assad, who insisted on conditions without a position of strength for nearly two years. This was followed by Turkish political support for the actions of Syrian opposition factions and the caretaker government established on December 12. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated on December 13 that Syrians have established a temporary administration and begun ensuring order and security, expressing hope for cleansing other areas of Syria from “terrorist organizations and invaders,” creating the necessary ground for all Syrians to find their places.
Erdoğan added that after 13 years, Syria has taken its first step towards liberation again. While the Syrians toppled the Baath regime, it was up to al-Assad to gather his belongings and flee overnight.
Jordanian strategic security expert Omar al-Raddad viewed the Turkish visit as a message indicating that the Syrian file is, for Turkey, connected to Turkish national security. Ankara’s vision for Syria encompasses military and security aspects but reflects Turkey’s relationship with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a relationship Ankara does not deny; everyone knows that Turkey is a major and central player in the Syrian file.
Alongside the visit, Turkey moved to open its embassy in Damascus last Saturday, making it the first embassy and diplomatic mission to enter Syria after al-Assad’s ousting.
The Turkish embassy was inaugurated following the appointment of Burhan Köroğlu as chargé d’affaires in Damascus, and his team headed to the Syrian capital.
The Jordanian expert considered that the embassy sends messages to Tahrir al-Sham, as there is an issue in the West and the regional environment concerning the ties of Tahrir al-Sham with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, raising questions or doubts in the regional and international surroundings about Syria’s future under this leadership.
“The visit by Kalın conveyed to the new leaders in Syria the concerns and doubts surrounding them, and perhaps also passed recommendations regarding the necessity of adopting further democratic measures and sending more messages internally and externally about the new situation in Syria, asserting that it will be different from before concerning human rights and minority rights, and the insistence on Syria’s unity,” added al-Raddad.
Al-Raddad believes that many Arab countries will begin contacting the new government in Damascus, and these communications may not initially be announced but will open channels for dialogue.
Regarding the meeting that took place in the Jordanian city of Aqaba, which included the foreign ministers of the Arab Liaison Committee (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Egypt, Lebanon) and other countries, including Turkey and the United States, al-Raddad clarified that this meeting indicates the continuation of the work of the Arab Liaison Committee emanating from the Arab League. Still, it requires communications and understandings with the new administration in Damascus, and as the situation on the ground in Syria progresses, communications with that new administration will advance.
Between two Decembers
There were conflicting reports regarding the Turkish visit on its day, as there was talk of the participation of Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, along with a Qatari delegation, which did not occur. The Qataris are visiting Damascus on Sunday, while Fidan met separately with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Ankara on the same day.
Turkish journalist Hisham Günay interpreted the visit as a Turkish confirmation that Ankara is fulfilling its promises, and its policy toward the Syrian opposition was not a failure, even if this step was delayed.
He also indicated to Enab Baladi that Turkey seeks to prevent the opposition from making mistakes that could jeopardize its legitimacy. This is a message to the outside world indicating that Turkey is present and coordinating with the new administration in the current circumstances in Syria.
In a televised interview on December 13, the Turkish foreign minister considered fears concerning Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to be entirely normal and needs to be resolved, indicating that he separately met with all the Arab foreign ministers after the opposition factions reached Aleppo to mitigate these concerns. The world accepted the criteria set by Turkey regarding this issue.
Fidan stated that there is no “terrorism” in Syria and that “terrorist organizations” (referring to the Islamic State and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and the People’s Protection Units) do not receive support, and minorities are not mistreated, while their basic needs are being met. Nobody is associated with weapons of mass destruction, and the new administration does not pose a threat to regional countries, while unity and cohesion of the state are ensured, and what is needed to address these concerns is a restructuring of an inclusive government.
He indicated that Turkey communicated these concerns to the administration in Damascus to address them and anticipated necessary positions and steps.
In the same interview, the Turkish foreign minister affirmed Turkey’s diplomatic role regarding Syria, stating, “We spoke with Russia and Iran and informed them not to enter the equation militarily.”
According to the minister, at the beginning of the Syrian opposition’s process, the most critical issue was that the Russians and Iranians communicated with each other and did not militarily enter the equation, noting that they understood this during last week’s meetings.
The Iranian foreign minister came to Turkey, followed by a meeting in Doha with the Russian foreign minister, where everything was discussed. After a certain point, they contacted each other, and Bashar al-Assad left that evening, according to the Turkish minister.
Two years ago, specifically on December 28, 2022, Turkey revealed negotiations with Bashar al-Assad’s regime, transitioning into a rapprochement involving Iran and Russia. However, this path was halted several times due to al-Assad’s insistence on terms he considered “national constants.” He failed to respond positively later to repeated Turkish calls to hold a meeting between the ousted Assad and the Turkish president to find a political solution.
Before completing two years of the political process with Turkey, Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell on December 8, and he fled from Syria to Russia to obtain “humanitarian” asylum by a decision from Russian President Vladimir Putin, after 13 years during which he turned more than half of the Syrian population into refugees around the world.