Enab Baladi – Jana al-Issa

The ousted president, Bashar al-Assad, fled after 13 years of heavy losses for the Syrians on all levels, including an unprecedented decline in living standards due to the war and corruption.

These years were enough to cripple the country’s economy, as production was halted across various sectors. Residents in regime-controlled areas were directly impacted through near-daily price hikes for food and essential goods, assuming these items were available, as they frequently disappeared from the market entirely.

Under these adverse living and economic conditions, government salaries were meager, falling short of the subsistence level, which is the income needed to provide the minimum necessities for survival, including food, drink, clothing, and shelter, without any form of luxury or decent living.

Given these negative circumstances, questions arise regarding the impact on the livelihoods of Syrians at this stage, amidst a fundamentally collapsed economy.

Russian supply threatens bread availability

Days after al-Assad’s escape, Reuters reported from Russian and Syrian sources that supplies of Russian wheat to Syria had been suspended due to what they called “ambiguity” surrounding the new government and issues related to delayed payments.

Shipping data revealed that two ships loaded with Russian wheat heading to Syria did not reach their destination, according to the agency.

The previous regime secured wheat from Russia through various mysterious means, including rarely disclosed agreements or tenders issued by the General Grain Corporation, or what Moscow sent under the guise of aid.

In a related context, Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture, Vitaly Kovaly, announced that Ukraine is willing to supply Syria with food, noting that it is a major global producer and exporter of grains and oilseeds.

Kyiv typically exports wheat and corn to countries in the Middle East but does not export them to Syria, as the previous government relied on securing its needs from Russia.

For its part, the Ministry of Internal Trade and Consumer Protection in the previous government reassured citizens regarding food supplies, stating that there is a good stock of wheat sufficient for over a year and flour that can last for more than three months.

They explained that the stock of basic and food supplies is good, and the current problem lies in securing transportation means to deliver goods to the markets.

“A bad financial situation”

On December 11th, just one day after officially assuming his duties, the head of the caretaker government in Syria, Mohammed al-Bashir, stated that there are only Syrian pounds in the central bank’s coffers “which are worthless.”

Al-Bashir added in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, “We have no foreign currency, and as for loans and bonds, we are still gathering data. So yes, we are in a very bad financial situation.”

He confirmed that Syria’s debts are enormous, adding, “But we have experience in Idlib where we succeeded. Of course, the province is not like the state, but we can improve the situation in Syria,” affirming that it will take some time.

Al-Bashir spoke about goals he intends to work on until March 2025, including “strategic planning,” noting that Syrians cannot live in risky conditions concerning basic services such as electricity, bread, and water. He said, “We are an interim government, but we must start working on it. When we entered Aleppo, Hama, and Damascus, Syrians were living in dual darkness—the darkness of the regime and the darkness of power outages. This is totally unacceptable.”

Billions in reserves disappeared

Before 2011, Syria’s reserves of dollars, foreign currencies, and gold were at their best.

According to statistics from the Federal Reserve Bank in St. Louis, the dollar reserves at the Central Bank of Syria (CBS) reached $5.6 billion in 2004 and rose to $18.5 billion in 2010.

The value of gold reserves at the Central Bank of Syria was 25.9 tons in 2004 and 25.8 tons in 2011, according to data from the World Gold Council.

No major changes

Political economy researcher Dr. Yahya al-Sayed Omar pointed out that the caretaker government faces significant challenges. Revenues are almost nonexistent, obligations are great, the state treasury is empty of dollars, and production is almost halted, making the task ahead very difficult, especially in the initial phase.

Dr. Omar stated in an interview with Enab Baladi that the challenges facing the transitional government will clearly reflect on the living standards of the population, which is expected.

He emphasized the need for cooperation between the people and the government, noting that citizens should not expect immediate improvements in economic indicators and must endure some economic pressures at least during the transitional phase, which ends next March.

It is expected that fuel will not be fully available, electricity will also not be in the best condition, and wage and salary levels are not expected to increase in the foreseeable future, according to researcher Yahya al-Sayed Omar.

He confirmed that the transitional government will face significant challenges, with state revenues almost halted, sanctions still in place, and expenses being considerable, mostly related to importing oil, wheat, and essential food supplies.

The transitional government does not possess a magic wand to repair the economic reality overnight, and the public must be made aware of this issue; they should not load it with expectations it cannot meet.

Yahya al-Sayed Omar, Economic researcher

The researcher noted that support from friendly countries is a crucial factor in overcoming this phase, such as providing food and medical aid, granting loans, and helping to supply fuel and electricity.

The government is also required to work immediately to revive production, especially agricultural production, which can be achieved without external support and can provide food necessities and support exports.

12.9 million suffer from food insecurity

On December 12th, the World Food Programme (WFP) reported that $250 million is needed in funding over the coming months in Syria to meet humanitarian needs.

Kenn Crossley, director of the WFP in Syria, stated that during this critical period, WFP teams on the ground are working to ensure that the most vulnerable people in the country receive the urgent food assistance they need.

Crossley added, “Currently, commercial supply routes are at risk, food prices have risen, the value of the Syrian pound has declined, and essential items like rice, sugar, and oil have become scarce, while bread prices have soared, making it crucial to intensify our efforts to help during this winter season.”

According to the WFP, approximately 12.9 million people are suffering from food insecurity at the beginning of this year, including three million who are facing severe food insecurity, while humanitarian aid has significantly decreased due to funding shortfalls.