Enab Baladi – Ali Darwish

The popular, political, and military pressure on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has increased following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the control of the Military Operations Administration over most of the geographical area of Syria.

The popular and military pressure on the SDF was followed by statements from Western countries, led by the United States, about the changing situation in Syria, during which the SDF received weapons and Western support. However, it still insists on its positions, demands, and way of managing the region’s security, especially with its opponents.

Supporters of the Damascus government

The areas controlled by the SDF in northeastern Syria, which include the provinces of al-Hasakah, Raqqa, the eastern part of Deir Ezzor, and parts of eastern Aleppo countryside, are mostly considered popular bases for the Damascus caretaker government.

Osama Sheikh Ali, a researcher at the Omran for Strategic Studies center, believes that the biggest impact on the SDF now is that the majority of people in the three provinces, with all their components, opposed the previous regime. When they compared the regime to the SDF, they preferred the latter over returning to the control of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Sheikh Ali added to Enab Baladi that the situation has now changed, and the people in this region opposing the regime, are happy about its fall, and are optimistic about the changes taking place and the new administration in Damascus.

Public opinion now demands a solution with the new administration and not to remain in this suspended situation. As a result, demonstrations took place in several areas, and there are popular demands alongside pressure from military factions in this direction. “Therefore, it is difficult for the situation to remain the same for the SDF in the upcoming period,” according to Sheikh Ali’s expression.

The Military Operations Administration in northwestern Syria launched the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation against the previous regime’s forces on November 27, regaining control of cities and towns rapidly, reaching Damascus and toppling the regime on December 8.

During this period, regime forces withdrew from various areas to repel the factions’ attack on Homs and Hama, and one of its withdrawal areas was Deir Ezzor province.

The SDF took advantage of the situation and entered the city of Deir Ezzor on December 6, which was met with popular rejection, demanding the Military Operations Administration send forces to expel the SDF, which indeed happened on December 11.

Al-Hasakah and Raqqa witnessed demonstrations against the SDF, to which the latter responded with gunfire, resulting in the deaths of four civilians and injuries to others.

SDF’s power cards

Researcher specialized in northeastern Syria affairs, Samer al-Ahmad, told Enab Baladi that the SDF is trying to exploit its power cards to achieve political gains from the Damascus caretaker government.

The SDF’s power cards include its control over most of Syria’s oil and gas fields such as the Omar and Rmelan oil fields, the Koniko gas plant (Al-Tabiya gas plant), and the Swedieh thermal station, in addition to having important dams like the Euphrates Dam in Raqqa province, which is the largest dam in Syria, and the Tishreen Dam in Manbij, eastern Aleppo.

Additionally, among its power cards is the file of Islamic State detainees in its prisons, and its control over camps housing the families of the group, which the SDF tries to exploit for international support.

Thousands of Islamic State fighters are held in SDF prisons, originating from 60 countries, since the SDF took control of areas of eastern Euphrates where the Islamic State group was spreading before 2017.

Researcher Osama Sheikh Ali pointed out that the SDF also possesses other power cards, namely the support of the International Coalition, and its military strength, as it has trained military forces.

Impression of negotiation

Researcher Samer al-Ahmad clarified that the SDF tries to suggest that it is open to negotiations and has no problem with them. At the same time, it increases its control and security dominance in its areas through imposed conscription, arrests, and persecutions, among other measures.

However, there is an important obstacle for the SDF, which is Turkey’s rejection of any link or presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Syria’s future. Until now, the SDF has not provided clear signals indicating its intention to separate from the PKK, which is considered a problem, according to al-Ahmad.

Al-Ahmad stated, “I believe we are facing a political deadlock between the SDF and the Damascus government. Ultimately, the Damascus government does not want to enter into a new armed conflict, but that conflict is still on the table, and the SDF has not yet given clear signals of relinquishing its weapons and joining the new administration,” according to al-Ahmad.

The balance has shifted

Osama Sheikh Ali believes that the SDF and its political umbrella, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), are currently in a state of confusion and anxiety regarding what has happened in Syria. AANES was based on balancing forces within (opposition, regime, Autonomous Administration), and was trying to play on that balance.

Now, with the fall of the regime, that balance has shifted, leaving only two parties: the new authorities in Damascus and AANES. “Therefore, its position has become harder, and its influence has significantly diminished,” according to Sheikh Ali.

However, there is an undeniable factor, which is the American position. So far, the US presence hinders any military advance for the factions or the Turkish army to eliminate AANES militarily.

According to Sheikh Ali, even if the US withdraws from Syria, eliminating the SDF militarily would be difficult and carry very high costs with significant repercussions on the region.

The SDF is currently working on forming a delegation to go to Damascus for negotiations with the General Command of Syria. Additionally, there are Kurdish-Kurdish negotiations between the SDF and the Kurdish National Council to form a unified Kurdish delegation to negotiate with Damascus.

If the SDF succeeds in forming a unified Kurdish delegation and traveling to Damascus, its negotiating position will be stronger. However, according to Sheikh Ali, achieving this now is challenging due to past experiences, particularly the negotiation experiences of the Kurdish National Council with the SDF.

Sheikh Ali speculated that the General Command in Syria prefers to resolve the SDF issue through negotiations. “However, I do not believe they will accept the current situation if the negotiations do not reach a specific and clear outcome. I think the General Command might lean towards a military solution, especially if the withdrawal of the US is on the table and there is a lack of American interest in this issue,” he said.

Statements not in SDF’s interest

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that the SDF must disarm and be integrated into the forces of the Damascus caretaker government.

Baerbock made this statement following talks with her Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, in the Turkish capital Ankara on December 20.

According to what Reuters reported from Baerbock in a press conference, the security of the Kurds is essential for a free Syria, but concerns regarding Turkish security must also be addressed to ensure stability. “Kurdish groups must be disarmed and integrated into the national security structure.”

The issue of the SDF was also present in discussions involving the US delegation that met with the commander of the General Command in Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), in Damascus.

US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf stated in a press conference held remotely attended by Enab Baladi that the conditions that pushed the Kurds in northeastern Syria to defend themselves have changed significantly.

Leaf added that a ceasefire in the city of Kobani and the organized transition of the role of the SDF is the best way forward.

The US delegation emphasized the importance of integration and extensive consultation during the transitional period in Syria.

The leader of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, mentioned on December 19 that the Military Operations Administration’s dealings and how it manages essential files would determine whether Syria is moving towards stability or escalation, adding that there is a “historic opportunity” to fulfill the Syrian people’s dream of building a new Syria after the fall of Assad’s regime.

On the same day, Abdi acknowledged the presence of foreign fighters in his ranks and expressed his willingness for them to leave Syrian territory if a ceasefire is reached.

Abdi tries in this proposal to ease tensions with Turkey, which has long considered the SDF an extension of the PKK, due to the control of the PKK cadres, especially foreign ones, over the SDF’s key positions.

In another interview with the British newspaper “The World” on December 19, Abdi called on the United States to pressure Turkey to prevent a predicted attack on the city of Kobani in eastern Aleppo countryside.

On December 17, Abdi expressed his readiness to propose the establishment of a demilitarized zone in Kobani, along with the redistribution of security forces under American supervision and presence.

On December 11, Abdi announced reaching a “ceasefire agreement in Manbij through American mediation.” The US State Department stated that the agreement had been extended until the end of the current week, but the Turkish Ministry of Defense remarked that it had not agreed to any ceasefire operation with the SDF in Syria.