Enab Baladi – Nouran al-Samman

Iran has long had a strong presence in Syria, manifested through its military, economic, and political support for the ousted president Bashar al-Assad and his regime since the outbreak of the revolution in 2011.

This support included sending militias such as Fatemiyoun and Zeinbiyoun, as well as elements from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), who played a pivotal role in suppressing the Syrian opposition.

With the fall of al-Assad’s regime on December 8 of this year, Iran has become extricated from Syrian territory, with its influence diminished to merely attempts to mobilize groups on a sectarian basis. This has been reflected in the mixed statements from the Iranian side regarding developments in Syria, indicating a state of hesitation and confusion.

While Iran claims that its presence in Syria has been “advisory,” facts and studies indicate that it has sent tens of thousands of militia members and financed and managed them. It has also exploited its embassy in Damascus as a center for coordinating military operations against the Syrian people, which reinforces accusations of its direct involvement in supporting repression and fueling the conflict.

Contradictions in its positions on the embassy

Iranian officials’ statements regarding the future of relations with Syria and the reopening of the Iranian embassy in Damascus have been contradictory. On December 25, Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani stated that the reopening of the Iranian embassy in Damascus depends on the performance of the new Syrian government, describing the situation in Syria as “unclear.”

This statement came just one day after she announced diplomatic talks between the two sides aimed at reopening the embassy, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the territorial integrity of Syria and preventing the spread of terrorism.

Mohajerani’s retraction coincided with Iran’s silence regarding the warning issued by the foreign minister in the Syrian caretaker government, Asaad Hassan al-Shibani, who said that Iran must respect the will of the Syrian people and the sovereignty of the country, warning it against “spreading chaos in Syria,” following statements made by the Iranian foreign minister that “those who believe they are achieving victories in Syria should hesitate in their judgment; many developments lie ahead.”

Iranian disappointment

Iran’s hopes of facing significant setbacks or substantial obstacles in the Syrian revolution have been dashed, according to the Ahwazi writer and political affairs researcher Youssef Azizi.

Azizi told Enab Baladi that after realizing these expectations did not materialize, Iran began taking escalatory stances.

Iran’s ambassador in Syria, Hossein Akbari, stated on December 16 that “the Iranian embassy in Damascus will resume operations soon,” after having been closed due to the Syrian opposition seizing large areas in Syria. He indicated that the developments in Syria came as a surprise to everyone, including the Syrian regime and its allies.

Iranian affairs researcher Mustafa al-Nuaimi believes that the Iranian embassy in Syria should be subject to strict conditions, such as allowing an international team to inspect the embassy building.

Al-Nuaimi pointed out to Enab Baladi that the embassy had been a center for coordinating military operations against the Syrian people in previous years, which makes its reopening a legal matter requiring careful accountability.

He also hinted at the possibility of records existing of individuals employed under the guise of visiting holy sites while they were actually working on combat fronts.

Arab rejection

The Arab League has expressed its rejection of recent Iranian statements, describing them as aimed at “fueling strife among the Syrian people.”

In a statement on December 26, the Arab League’s General Secretariat expressed that it is following “with concern” the events taking place in several areas in Syria, considering that these events aim to ignite the flames of discord.

In contrast, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Esmail Baghaei, rejected the accusations on the same day, calling them “false,” propagated by some media regarding Iran’s intervention in Syria’s internal affairs.

According to Iranian affairs researcher Mustafa al-Nuaimi, Iran will continue its attempts to destabilize Syria, especially after its influence there has diminished, representing a significant loss of a project that has lasted over 20 years.

He added that Iran would not stand idly by after being ousted from Syria but would seek to use all available means to undermine the security of the Syrian state.

Among these means, it may resort to activating dormant militias to carry out terrorist operations, similar to what happened in Iraq with sectarian bombings aimed at stirring tensions among the components of the Syrian people. This situation gives Iran the opportunity to intervene again by sending armed elements and participating directly on the ground, according to al-Nuaimi.

On the other hand, Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, assert that what is happening in Syria is part of a US-Israeli project to weaken the resistance, emphasizing that the Iranian intervention came at the request of the Syrian regime to combat armed groups.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, considered Syria to be a strategic depth for Iran within the axis of resistance, confirming the ongoing defense of Iran’s advisory role in Syria despite denying any real Iranian influence.

In another speech, Khamenei described the countries of Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in December 2022 as “the strategic depth of Iran.”

He also mentioned in another speech that one of the pillars of national strength is influencing “other peoples and creating a strategic depth for Tehran.”

Researcher al-Nuaimi emphasized that thwarting these “malicious” schemes requires collective efforts at local, regional, and international levels to protect Syria and prevent any foreign interventions that threaten its security and stability.

The leader of Syria’s new administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, described Syria as being “a platform for Iran” to manage its regional policies, asserting that the removal of Iranian militias has contributed to achieving security stability, considering that the Iranian project has receded for 40 years.

Assad’s debts burden the new government

The fall of the regime has undermined the Iranian project in Syria, especially with the expulsion of Iranian militias from some areas, which analysts consider a regression of the Iranian project that has extended for decades.

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Iranian pressures to recover the debts owed by Syria have increased, with some sources estimating these debts at $50 billion.

On December 17, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that its debts owed by the Assad regime would be borne by the new Syrian government according to the principle of “state succession.”

Reports indicate that Iranian debts to Syria amount to approximately $50 billion; however, the Iranian Foreign Ministry claimed that these figures are exaggerated.

International law expert Ibrahim al-Olabi stated in a previous conversation with Enab Baladi that the new Syrian government could assert that it is no longer bound by Iranian agreements or debts in Syria, and could therefore face a lawsuit from Iran in an international court.

Should the court find that one of those agreements or debts involve a coercive act (harmful to national security or the interests of the Syrian people), it could declare them null and void or exempt them from repayment, according to al-Olabi.

Between 2011 and 2024, the Syrian regime signed no less than 126 agreements with Iran across various sectors, such as energy, trade, health, education, agriculture, industry, communications, and finance, according to the Jusoor for Studies Center.

Among these agreements, 43 agreements were implemented, while 47 are still in progress, 25 agreements are partially or intermittently under execution, 4 agreements have not been implemented, and 7 agreements have an unknown fate.