Enab Baladi – Hassan Ibrahim

The last chapter of Syria under al-Assad’s rule has come to a close following the announcement of Bashar al-Assad’s escape from Syrian territory, after opposition factions reached the capital, Damascus. This marked the beginning of a new phase on the rubble of a country taken over by Hafez al-Assad in 1971, on December 8, 2024.

The regime breathed its last as the noose tightened around it, and its attempts to play all its political cards and its appeals to its allies and Arab and European countries did not save it. It fled to an unknown destination, taking with it the failure of the victory narrative that it had long promoted during its years in power.

The arrival of the opposition factions to Damascus came after launching the military operation “Deterrence of Aggression” on November 27, which began a phase of seizing and capturing villages, towns, and cities from regime forces and their allies, stretching from Aleppo to Hama, Homs, and Damascus, while local factions in the south took control of As-Suwayda, Daraa, and Quneitra.

Seeking refuge in Russia

The American site “Axios” reported that a plane of the Ilyushin 76 model suspected of carrying al-Assad left Damascus Airport shortly before the opposition entered, heading northwest and then veering near Homs, descending quickly before disappearing from radar.

After hours of searching for him and uncertainty about his fate amidst speculation of the plane’s crash and his death, Russia announced that he had arrived in Moscow with his family.

Russia granted al-Assad and his family the right to asylum for humanitarian reasons, according to a source close to the Kremlin, as reported by the Russian agency RIA Novosti.

At this time, many supporters of al-Assad and prominent officials expressed criticism of him, condemning his surrender of power and escape without a plan for transition, and without notifying the thousands of fighters who found themselves leaderless in the streets.

The opposition’s operations and al-Assad’s escape came after 13 years of peaceful revolution that turned into armed struggle after al-Assad responded to it with violence, seeking the assistance of Russia and Iran to curb the opposition’s advance.

Since 2011, more than 231,000 people have been killed in Syria according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), with the Syrian regime being responsible for the death of over 86% of them.

Furthermore, 157,000 people were classified as forcibly disappeared, while more than 15,000 were killed under torture, according to documentation from the network.

Around 13 million Syrians have been displaced, both internally and externally, with over 90% of them living below the poverty line amidst an economic and service collapse in Syria, a country drowning in debt, as per the United Nations.

Amidst these violations, al-Assad always focused on his victory in what he termed the “war on terrorism,” speaking about rehabilitating state institutions and opening channels with his Arab and regional surroundings.

Playing the last cards

Before the siege by the factions and the encirclement of Damascus, Bashar al-Assad made two indirect offers to the United States to remain in power in Syria or secure his exit from the country.

The first offer was made to the elected president Donald Trump via the UAE, proposing that Syria cut all ties to Iran-backed armed groups, like Hezbollah, if the western powers exercised their influence to stop the fighting on Syrian territory.

The second offer involved sending a prominent Christian leader to meet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to convey what he viewed as an “existential threat to the Christian minority” in Syria if “Islamic rebels” prevailed, hoping Orban would relay this “danger” to his ally Trump.

The Christian clergyman was the patriarch of the Syriac Orthodox, Ignatius Aphrem II, who went to Hungary to convey his “fears” on December 2.

These two offers were made in exchange for al-Assad’s willingness to reach an agreement that would allow him to retain the remaining land his army controls or ensure his safe passage into exile if necessary, according to what the Bloomberg news agency reported on December 7 from diplomatic sources.

Amid the intensification of battles, al-Assad raised the card of American journalist Austin Tice, who is detained in his prisons. Tice’s mother stated that her son is still alive, attributing this information to a “significant source,” which she claimed had been verified by the US government, as reported by the al-Monitor website (based in the US) on December 6, after a meeting with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

The recent emergence of information about Tice was attributed by analysts to al-Assad attempting to leverage it for negotiations concerning his stay in power or at least stopping the fighting, especially after the US administration had previously sought to negotiate for his release and had used backchannels with the Syrian regime.

From father to son.. How did the story begin?

The Assad family seized control of Syria following a military coup in 1970, with Hafez al-Assad becoming president in 1971, establishing an authoritarian, totalitarian regime reliant on security forces and a structure resembling a one-party system.

Hafez al-Assad and his brother Rifaat committed massacres in Hama and Aleppo, with Hafez being the sole leader of the country. His era was marked by significant scientific and economic deterioration, and he failed to regain the Golan Heights.

In June 2000, Hafez al-Assad passed away, and his son Bashar came to power after a rapid constitutional amendment in the Syrian parliament, which lowered the presidential eligibility age from 40 to 34 to fit his age at the time.

He also became a member of the Regional Command of the ruling Baath party within weeks, which was another requirement for assuming the presidency in Syria.

Bashar was not groomed for the presidency since childhood as he was Hafez’s second son. However, his older brother Basil’s death in a car accident in 1994 opened the door for him, leaving Hafez with no choice but to prepare him for the presidency.

He was re-elected in 2007, 2014, and 2021, despite protests and a popular uprising that began against his rule in March 2011, demanding reforms, freedom, political change, and his departure.

Bashar al-Assad met the protests with iron, fire, live ammunition, detentions, and assaults, employing a military solution and seeking help from Iranian allies and Hezbollah, which led to Russian military intervention in 2015 and resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians and the displacement of millions within and outside Syria.

For decades, the Syrian regime maintained its power and ability to hold onto authority through complete control over the military and security apparatus, building a totalitarian state, and marginalizing opposing forces.

It deepened its alliance with Iran and Russia while understanding the stability policies in the region regarding the United States and Israel, along with various local and international factors.

Promotion in ranks

Bashar al-Assad was born in Damascus governorate on September 11, 1965, and he is the third son of Hafez al-Assad after Bushra and Basil. He studied medicine at the University of Damascus and graduated in 1988, then volunteered in the army and armed forces in the medical services administration, starting from September 1, 1985.

He graduated with the rank of First Lieutenant under probation on August 6, 1988, then worked in ophthalmology at the Tishreen military hospital in 1992. After that, he traveled to London where he continued his specialization until 1994.

After the death of his older brother, Bashar returned to Damascus to undergo intensive rehabilitation, where he was appointed president of the Syrian Scientific Society for Informatics, which leads information activities in Syria, in 1994. He was promoted to the rank of Captain (July 1994), then to Major (July 1995), then to Lieutenant Colonel (1997), and then to Colonel (January 1999). During this time, he handled several files, most notably the Lebanese file, according to the Pro Justice website.

The end of the Assad era

The Assad era ended after 53 years of seizing power and committing massacres against Syrians, where the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR) documented the killing of 231,278 civilians, including 15,334 due to torture, and arbitrary detention (forced disappearance) of 156,757 people, and the displacement of nearly 14 million people, at the hands of conflict parties and controlling forces in Syria from March 2011 to March 2024.

Of the total toll, Syrian regime forces killed 201,260 people, while Russian forces killed 6,969 people.

Bashar al-Assad is considered the primary and direct responsible for the violations against Syrians, due to holding the positions of President of the Republic and Commander-in-Chief of the Army and Armed Forces, as well as the dependency of security agencies, militias, and National Defense Forces on him, and by virtue of his broad powers under the Syrian constitution, according to the Pro Justice website.

On December 8, the Military Operations Administration, responsible for battles against the former Syrian regime, stated, “After 50 years of oppression under al-Baath rule, and 13 years of crime, tyranny, and displacement, after a long struggle and confrontation of all forms of occupying forces, we announce today, on December 8, 2024, the end of this dark era and the beginning of a new era for Syria.”

Dictator with defects

In his book “Assad or We Burn the Country,” American author Sam Dagher painted a psychological picture of Bashar al-Assad. He described him as a dictator who initially suffered from complexes and defects, later trying to compensate for this by displaying exaggerated masculinity, through cruelty and sarcasm.

Dagher exposed the false image that al-Assad likes to portray, that of the modern, open-minded, and progressive doctor who inadvertently ended up in the world of politics.

Dagher considered in his book that al-Assad was willing to kill hundreds of thousands of the Syrian people to remain in power, even before the emergence of the Islamic State group.

The author links the extensive repression exercised by the regime against Syrians with the release of hundreds of Islamists from prisons, as mentioned in the book. He also cited sources inside the regime stating that al-Assad ordered his officers to give up border points as the Islamic State group rose in power, and accused al-Assad of killing his brother-in-law Assef Shawkat.