Enab Baladi – Hani Karazi

After three delays a few months ago, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) started to conduct local elections in areas under its control in northeastern Syria, without any official announcement, raising questions about the motives behind these elections following a series of postponements and the repercussions of this step.

AANES began its elections on November 14 in the city of Raqqa and its countryside, and after completing them, it launched another round of elections in the countryside of Deir Ezzor, which lasted on the 18th and 19th of this month, according to what Enab Baladi’s correspondent reported.

The elections were preceded by promotional activities from AANES through local councils and among employees and workers, without an official announcement.

Local councils and communes (neighborhood leaders) held meetings with residents to persuade them to vote for candidates from the Future Syria Party, which entered the elections with other parties under the name “Peoples’ Alliance.” It includes the Democratic Union Party (PYD), Modernity Party, and the Zenobia Women’s Gathering, according to what Enab Baladi’s reporter mentioned.

A responsible source in the Hajin Local Council in the countryside of Deir Ezzor, affiliated to AANES, told Enab Baladi that AANES held meetings in which it presented the names of candidates for the municipal elections, most of whom belong to the Future Syria Party.

The source, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, added that the elections in Deir eEzzor were conducted in two phases, the first involved military personnel on the 18th of November, and the second involved civilians on the 19th of the same month.

The local Euphrates Appeal Media Network stated that the list of “independent” candidates included names of several employees of AANES from the local area, indicating that these candidates are merely “formal” names.

Enab Baladi did not receive responses from officials in AANES regarding the launching of municipal elections.

In two regions only

By monitoring the areas where AANES has conducted its local elections so far, it became clear that they occurred only in the Deir Ezzor region and the Raqqa region, while it remains unclear whether elections will take place in the other “regions” under its jurisdiction.

AANES had issued the Administrative Divisions Law last May, in preparation for municipal elections in the region it intended to conduct during that period before deciding to postpone them.

AANES administratively divides its areas of control into “regions,” ignoring the original administrative divisions of the Syrian governorates in the area.

According to the Administrative Divisions Law, numbered “6,” the Autonomous Administration in northeastern Syria consists of seven regions: Jazira, Deir Ezzor, Raqqa, Euphrates, Manbij, Afrin and Shehba and Tabqa.

The Jazira region includes the cities of al-Hasakah, Qamishli, al-Shaddadi, Tal Tamr, Amuda, al-Qahṭāniyah, and Tal Hamis, while the Deir Ezzor region includes the cities and towns of al-Kasrah, al-Jazrat, al-Suwar, al-Basira, Hajin, al-Baghouz, and al-Gharanij.

The third region, Raqqa, includes the cities of Raqqa, al-Karama, al-Huwis, and Hazima, while the fourth Euphrates region includes Ayn al-Arab, Ain Issa, and Sarrin, alongside Tal Abyad, which is under the control of the Syrian National Army. The fifth region, Manbij, includes the cities of Manbij, Abu Qulqul, and al-Muhtareq.

The sixth region, Afrin and Shehba, comprises Afrin and its suburbs, which are outside the control of AANES, except for the southern countryside and Tal Rifaat, while the seventh region of the Tabqa includes the cities of Tabqa, al-Mansurah, and al-Jarniyah.

Researcher at the Raman Research and Consultancy Center, Badr Mulla Rashid, told Enab Baladi that the regions of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor have witnessed local opposition to the councils and municipalities affiliated with AANES, as they were appointed during the post-Islamic State period.

Rashid added that the appointment of local councils and municipalities’ members didn’t occur based on local elections or broad community consensus, which led to issues stemming from the lack of compatibility between the local environment and their administrative and military representatives. Therefore, AANES held elections in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, aiming to appease these local towns.

The researcher added that AANES wanted to conduct elections in predominantly Arab areas like Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, because it insists on the necessity for fair representation, alongside the lack of consensus in Kurdish areas, in addition to avoiding pressures and the potential occurrence of a military operation by Turkey if AANES organizes comprehensive elections that would give its entity complete political legitimacy.

Avoiding the Turkish security belt

The elections conducted by AANES so far in the Deir Ezzor and Raqqa regions could be considered as having taken place outside the Turkish security belt, which Turkey plans to control and considers a red line for itself.

Turkey has demanded the establishment of a security belt since the onset of the Syrian revolution, extending 30-40 kilometers deep into Syrian territory from the Turkish border.

In October 2019, Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring, during which it controlled part of this security belt, represented by the areas of Ras al-Ain in the al-Hasakah countryside and Tal Abyad in the Raqqa countryside near the Syrian-Turkish border.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reaffirmed the importance of the security belt after Donald Trump was re-elected president.

The Turkish Hürriyet newspaper quoted Erdoğan’s statements, in which he emphasized that Ankara is still determined to implement its policy of establishing a security corridor up to 30 to 40 kilometers along its southern border.

Researcher at the Jusoor For Studies Center, Anas Shawakh, believes that AANES has delegated each area to determine the timing of local elections independently, and without any media coverage, to avoid Turkish targeting of this process.

Shawakh added to Enab Baladi that AANES followed a specific tactic in conducting elections, starting in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, likely proceeding in Manbij and Tabqa, followed by al-Hasakah and other areas near the Syrian-Turkish border.

He explained that the reason for this sequence of elections is that AANES purposely chose to start its elections in regions with a predominant Arab majority. At the same time, it began in areas south of the M4 international highway, meaning outside the Turkish security belt, since these areas are generally outside the activity range of Turkish drones or warplanes or artillery.

As for other areas located inside the Turkish security belt such as Qamishli, Ayn al-Arab, they might witness AANES hastily conducting elections to avoid any Turkish military targeting or international pressure, according to Shawakh.

A new tactic

AANES postponed municipal elections three times: first at the end of May, then in June, after which the head of the Democratic Union Party (PYD), Saleh Muslim, spoke about AANES’ insistence on holding the elections in August, but that did not occur.

On September 5, AANES announced it would begin preparations to hold municipal elections in areas under its control, more than four months after they were first postponed.

AANES issued decision number “7,” stating that it had authorized its High Electoral Commission to start working on conducting municipal elections.

The decision did not specify a date for the elections, but it indicated that elections would take place when the High Electoral Commission finds it suitable based on the condition of each region separately.

In this context, the assistant researcher at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, Osama Sheikh Ali, indicated that AANES placed itself in a dilemma when it announced the elections, as it did not expect this strong Turkish reaction. Thus, it faced two options: either to cancel the elections, placing the whole region under Turkish influence, whereby any upcoming electoral announcements by AANES would stop if facing Turkish rejection.

The other option was to conduct elections and challenge the Turkish and American desire not to execute them, thus providing Turkey with a strong pretext to conduct military action in the area.

Against this backdrop, Sheikh Ali mentioned to Enab Baladi that AANES resorted to a new tactic, which is not to cancel elections nor conduct them openly in all areas at once but rather to carry them out quietly, leaving it to each area based on its suitable circumstances.

He added that AANES started elections in Raqqa as a way to gauge the reaction and then held them in Deir Ezzor. Following that, it will likely monitor international reactions, and if it finds that it has not faced significant pressures, especially from Turkey and the United States, it will conduct elections in other areas, but using the same tactic employed in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor.

Expected reactions

Days after the first postponement of the elections in May, the United States (the main supporter of AANES) commented on the elections, stating that the circumstances of the crisis in Syria are not conducive to conducting elections in northeastern Syria at this time.

With the second postponement in June, Germany took a similar stance through its envoy to Syria, Stefan Schneck, who stated via “X” that holding elections in Syria at this time would not advance the political process but rather entrench the existing situation of conflict and protracted division.

Turkey’s position was even harsher, as the leader of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Devlet Bahçeli, called for a joint military operation between Turkey and the Syrian regime to eliminate the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Syria, according to what the Turkish Cumhuriyet newspaper reported.

Bahçeli criticized the municipal elections, considering them a new phase leading to the “division of Turkey,” pointing out that the United States sees dialogue with “terrorists” as strategically important in the region, referring to the Autonomous Administration.

Since the start of the Autonomous Administration of its local elections mid this month, there has been no response from Turkey, the United States, or Germany by the time of preparing this report.

Anas Shawakh believes that the Turkish response might emerge if AANES decides to conduct elections in areas located within the Turkish security belt, such as Ayn al-Arab, Dirbasiyeh, Amuda, Qamishli, and al-Malikiyah. In this case, military escalation against AANES areas is anticipated.

Meanwhile, Osama Sheikh Ali stated that because AANES conducted elections quietly and in specific areas, “I believe the repercussions will not reach the level of another Turkish military intervention or bombardment due to the elections conducted in these locations; perhaps it will be limited to mere Turkish statements condemning these elections.”