Enab Baladi – Hussam al-Mahmoud

On October 20, the Jordanian Foreign Minister, Ayman al-Safadi, made a visit to the Syrian capital, Damascus, meeting with the Syrian regime president, Bashar al-Assad, and his counterpart, Bassam al-Sabbagh.

This was al-Safadi’s third visit to Damascus since 2011 and the first this year. It differed from the previous two in terms of timing and sensitivity, given the ongoing Israeli escalation in Gaza and southern Lebanon, and the potential for the conflict to extend into Syria, in addition to the messages conveyed during the visit.

The Jordanian Foreign Ministry stated via “X” that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad received al-Safadi, who was carrying a verbal message from Jordanian King Abdullah II regarding efforts to resolve the “Syrian crisis” and address all its repercussions, along with several bilateral issues and regional conditions.

The official Syrian news agency (SANA) reported that the Syrian Foreign Minister met with his Jordanian counterpart and his accompanying delegation at the ministry’s headquarters in Damascus. The agency mentioned that the president met with al-Safadi and discussed the bilateral relations between the two countries, means of enhancing them, the issue of the return of Syrian refugees, and the current and dangerous developments in the region.

One of the discussed topics during the visit was the issue of Syrian refugees. Al-Assad stated that securing the “safe return” of Syrian refugees is a priority for the “Syrian state,” emphasizing that Syria has made significant progress in measures to facilitate their return, particularly in the legal and legislative environments required.

The discussion about the “safe” return of refugees contradicts reports issued by human rights organizations documenting the violations faced by Syrians residing within Syria or those returning to it. It also does not align with the current situation in which government-controlled areas unexpectedly received around half a million Syrians and Lebanese due to the Israeli escalation in southern Lebanon, without prior preparations or arrangements. This makes receiving individuals from environments without military threats unlikely.

After a decline in diplomatic activity

Al-Safadi visited Syria on February 15, 2023, following the devastating earthquake on February 6, which affected four Syrian provinces and ten Turkish states. This was the first high-level Jordanian visit following the Syrian revolution.

On July 3, 2023, al-Safadi met with al-Assad during his second visit to Damascus, similar to the first visit. However, this visit followed the return of the Syrian regime to the Arab League, which was marked by al-Assad’s participation in the Jeddah Summit on May 19 of the same year.

After two visits in 2023, Jordan’s diplomatic activity towards the Syrian regime declined due to the lack of tangible progress on the items of the “Jordanian Initiative” for a solution in Syria. The requirements from the regime not only became stalled but also took a reverse path, reflected in the worsening drug trafficking to Jordan and the absence of reform steps at various levels or changes in the regime’s behavior regarding the Syrian file, which generated an Arab frustration reflected in unofficial media reports at that time, leading to unofficial accusations against Jordan of obstructing the Syrian regime’s political presence at multiple levels.

The Lebanese Al-Akhbar newspaper, which reflects the viewpoint of the Syrian regime and its Lebanese ally “Hezbollah,” published a report on August 24, accusing the Jordanian Foreign Minister of obstructing the work of the Arab Liaison Committee regarding Syria and conducting a diplomatic campaign to distort the regime’s position.

According to Al-Akhbar, al-Safadi played a prominent role in disrupting Arab and some Western openness towards Damascus. After the first meetings of the Arab Liaison Committee (which includes foreign ministers from Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon), and the delay of the second round, intense media campaigns continued to undermine the committee’s role, through deliberate leaks about Damascus’s non-compliance with its commitments to the committee.

The newspaper also reported that the Jordanian diplomacy waged a campaign to distort the regime’s position before Arab and European diplomats, claiming that Damascus had not fulfilled its commitments, particularly regarding drug trafficking and refugees.

On September 10, the Arab Liaison Committee met for the second time, ending its meeting without a final statement, but an agreement was reached to form a team of experts to study the topics being pursued by the committee with Syria (in reference to the Syrian regime) and holding its next meeting in Baghdad.

Verbal message and sensitive timing

In light of the Syrian regime’s commitment, as part of the “Axis of Resistance,” to the position of the “viewer” of the ongoing war in Gaza for over a year, and the escalation against southern Lebanon entering a different phase since last September, alongside the lack of serious engagement with Israeli movements in Quneitra, southern Syria, which reached the point of incursion and land bulldozing, as well as shifting the border fence between Syria and the occupied Syrian Golan, al-Safadi brought a verbal message from the Jordanian king, the content of which was not disclosed.

Strategic expert and non-resident researcher at the Stimson Institute in Washington, Amer al-Sabailah, clarified to Enab Baladi that al-Safadi’s visit to Damascus is a distinct Jordanian visit, and he was not sent as an envoy of the Arabs during this visit. Amman is concerned about the upcoming phase and its repercussions on Jordan’s borders, the attempts to breach the Golan Front, and the dense presence of militias in Syria.

Additionally, Jordan aims to enter mediation concerning the Lebanese file in the upcoming phase, which necessitates communication with the Syrian regime, with a Jordanian desire to prevent its borders from becoming a front for future escalation, according to al-Sabailah.

For his part, Jordanian strategic security expert Omar al-Raddad ruled out in his discussion with Enab Baladi that the issues of drug trafficking or the return of refugees were the driving forces behind al-Safadi’s visit, considering them secondary issues that could be raised at any time in light of the current regional developments.

Al-Raddad believes that since the onset of the Israeli war on Gaza, the Syrian regime’s stance has not aligned with that of the “Axis of Resistance,” which makes the regime’s position closer to the Arab stance than to that of the “Resistance Front.” Thus, one could say that the Jordanian visit occurred in light of this understanding and Jordan’s desire to probe the matter.

The Jordanian expert also ruled out that al-Safadi was sent as an envoy from the Arabs during this visit, considering Jordan to be a party as well, while noting the regime’s unstable position regarding distancing itself from Iran or remaining in the “Axis of Resistance.” He emphasized that the Jordanian king’s verbal message to al-Assad reflects a lack of trust in the Syrian regime.

The Syrian borders on the Golan Front are experiencing a calm that contradicts the situation along its extent toward the Lebanese border with the occupied Palestinian territories. There, Israel is conducting a military operation that has shifted from airstrikes to ground incursions, aiming to “purify” the area from the infrastructure of Hezbollah, according to Israeli claims.

The harsh Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, which have taken the lives of most of its first-tier leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah and Hashim Safi al-Din among others, have not prompted the regime to take any action, even to counter threats that are manifestly evident in Quneitra, without stopping the Israeli strikes that have become a near-daily occurrence in various regions of Syria, targeting military sites or specific individuals.