Enab Baladi – Yamen Moghrabi

Israel is conducting airstrikes in Syria against what it claims are weapon shipments and depots belonging to Iran and Hezbollah. Israel acknowledges some attacks while often not commenting, yet these have not impacted the Russian bases or forces in Syria despite their proximity.

These strikes have increased in recent weeks with Israel intensifying its targeting of Hezbollah sites and individuals. It has also prepared for ground invasion operations in southern Lebanon, starting on October 1st.

Amid these strikes and as the war is likely to shift beyond just military movements and armed groups in Lebanon and occupied Palestine, an explosion shook the Syrian coast near the Hmeimim military base, Russia’s largest base outside its borders, on October 3rd.

The Russian Sputnik news agency reported that Syrian air defenses responded to hostile targets off the coast of Jableh in Latakia countryside.

The report added that one of the missiles fell on the outskirts of the city, causing a fire at the site, coinciding with loud explosions being heard.

The agency quoted an unnamed security source saying that air defenses dealt with hostile targets for more than half an hour, suggesting the attackers were likely drones aiming at several sites on the outskirts of Jableh.

Sputnik published a video claiming to show the explosions in the region and the attempts of air defense to counter the attack.

For its part, the official Russian news agency “TASS” reported from media sources that Israel carried out strikes on the city of Jableh in Syria, without mentioning that these strikes occurred near its main air base in the area.

Did Israel attack Russian targets?

The strikes targeting Hmeimim focused on hitting the Syrian side rather than the Russian military part, as the base is located near Bassel al-Assad International Airport. The base was previously intended for helicopters to land before Moscow expanded it after its forces entered alongside the Syrian regime in 2015.

Russia did not officially comment on the strike at the time of publishing this report.

Targeting the base comes amid expanding battles between Hezbollah and Tehran on one hand, and Israel on the other. This suggests future repercussions on the Syrian regime, where both Tehran and Moscow share influence within its territory, whether militarily, economically, or even at the level of governmental and service institutions. It also comes amidst Russia’s preoccupation with its war against Ukraine.

Dr. Nasr al-Yousef, an expert on Russian affairs, told Enab Baladi that the main media outlets in Russia did not care much about the attack news, mentioning that the “intensive” raid likely by Israel from the sea targeted the Hmeimim airport, not the Russian military base but the Syrian sites and perhaps the civilian part.

According to Russian media, the attack targeted a cargo just brought in by Iran, with images indicating massive explosions due to the strike. It implies the shipment was not humanitarian aid but perhaps ammunition and more, according to al-Yousef.

The base can be targeted on its Syrian side, as per the Russian affairs expert, and Israel has previously directed strikes on Syrian lands against Iranian targets. The new aspect is that the target was extremely close to Hmeimim.

Israel has targeted weapon depots and Iranian and Hezbollah figures in Syria.

Close to the Russians

Syrian air defenses countered targets, whose nature was unknown, in the coastal area near Tartus governorate, close to Hmeimim.

The regime-affiliated Sham FM radio reported that air defenses countered on September 24th hostile targets in the skies of Tartus governorate. It added that the explosions heard in the city of Jableh were due to air defense support in combating hostile targets from the sea between Jableh and Tartus.

The Russian Sputnik agency mentioned that the regime’s army dealt with a hostile object, launching a single interceptor missile over territorial waters.

The Russian agency released a video showing attempts to intercept flying objects in the skies of Tartus.

Less than 70 kilometers from Hmeimim, Israel conducted an aerial operation on September 8th targeting the Scientific Research Center in Masyaf.

The operation was carried out by 100 Israeli special forces members, following a series of airstrikes lasting 15 minutes, about 60 meters underground, according to The New York Times, citing American, European, and Israeli officials.

The newspaper believes this operation is the “first shot” in the Israeli campaign against the Lebanese Hezbollah and Iranian leaders, particularly as the center was used for missile production and nominally belongs to the Syrian regime.

Russia has criticized these raids, condemning the strikes and expressing dissatisfaction publicly. Official Russian statements indicate no agreement with Israel to allow targeting sites in Syria, but Russian-Israeli understandings are neither hidden nor secretive, having been clear for years.

International relations researcher Mahmoud Alloush told Enab Baladi that if the bombing targeted the Russian side of Hmeimim, it would have significant consequences for Russia-Israel relations.

Moreover, the significant escalation between Iran and Israel will have implications for Russia’s presence in Syria. The broader the war’s consequences, the harder it is for Russia to secure its interests and role in Syria amid these repercussions.

Israel takes advantage of Moscow’s preoccupation with its war against Ukraine to operate with additional margins to reduce Iranian influence in Syria, per Alloush.

How does Moscow view what’s happening in the region?

Russia’s involvement alongside the Syrian regime in its war was not free, as Moscow exploited Bashar al-Assad’s need for its forces to achieve its interests in reaching warm waters and the Mediterranean Sea.

However, Moscow entering Syria does not mean it is the sole dominant power in the country. Iran’s presence and its militias, and its penetration into government and service institutions, placed both parties in a constant state of competition in Syria and within other alliances.

Tehran faces tough conditions, possibly the hardest since the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988). The repercussions of the Israeli military operation against the Gaza Strip, the assassination of Hamas’ political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, followed by targeting top Hezbollah leaders in Beirut and Syria, pose sensitive and challenging circumstances for Tehran, especially with its ally in Syria avoiding intervention both verbally and practically.

The final outcome of today’s battle, which might engulf al-Assad himself and Iran’s interests in his controlled areas, is unclear, prompting Moscow to closely observe the developments.

According to expert Nasr al-Yousef, Russia’s declared position is to reject and condemn Israel’s actions, with escalated rhetoric and explicit refusal even in the Security Council against Israel, citing that it could drag the region into a wide-scale war claiming hundreds of thousands of lives.

Alongside this action, Russian statements denouncing and condemning Israel’s actions are issued, with the foreign ministry releasing a statement after every significant strike, within the scope of mere formality, as per al-Yousef.

Moscow has previously intervened in the current conflict, as reported by the American magazine “Foreign Policy” in August, stating that Russia deepens its ties with Iran. Recent indications included a meeting between the Russian Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister, Sergey Shoygu, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and the Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Mohammad Bagheri.

According to the magazine, Moscow sees the current Middle East turmoil as advantageous in diverting attention from its battles in Ukraine.

On August 5th, The New York Times reported that Iran requested advanced air defense systems from Russia in preparation for a potential war against Israel.

Iranian officials told the American newspaper that Russia had already begun delivering advanced radar devices and air defense equipment to Iran.

International relations researcher Mahmoud Alloush believes that what concerns Moscow directly is protecting its interests in Syria and maintaining its role as a regulator among the conflicting parties throughout the Syrian geography.

He added that Moscow plays a role in providing a margin for Israel’s movement in Syria, as it’s unimaginable for Israel to act alone without coordination with Moscow regarding this matter.