The rumors circulated on local groups in the WhatsApp application prompted Hussein Rahal (30 years old) to flee with his family and four children from his hometown of Taftanaz in eastern Idlib to a camp near Salqin in the northern province.

The content of those rumors suggested that the northwestern region of Syria would witness a “potential military operation” in the coming days, without specifying the party that would initiate it.

Rahal, who works seasonally in agriculture and construction, is one of 7,315 individuals documented by the Syria Response Coordination Group (SRCG) team who have been displaced during the past week from villages and towns in northwestern Syria.

The humanitarian team stated in a report published on Tuesday, October 8, that the movement of displacement is related to “fears concerning potential military operations in the region.”

The team director, Mohamed Hallaj, told Enab Baladi that the villages that witnessed movements of displacement include Taftanaz, Nairab, Shalakh, Kityan, Afes, and Sarmada.

He added that the destinations were “relatively safe” areas such as the city of Idlib, Armanaz, Bira Armanaz, Salqin, Salwa, Qah, and Atmeh.

The United Nations stated in a report published on October 2 that more than 400 families had been displaced in northwestern Syria due to “ongoing hostilities.”

It added that 300 families had fled from the town of Sarmada in eastern Idlib due to shelling in the area.

What is the story of the “military action”?

According to what Enab Baladi has tracked, Syrians have been discussing in WhatsApp groups and channels on Telegram about an imminent “military action” in northwestern Syria.

It has not been clarified whether the “action” is initiated by the Syrian regime or by the opposition factions in the area, which are part of what is called the “al-Fath al-Mubin Operation Room.”

Enab Baladi contacted the media office of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which holds the largest influence in the region, and they refused to provide any comments.

For its part, the media office of the Ministry of Defense of the Syrian National Army (SNA), which controls the northern and eastern rural areas of Aleppo, denied the rumors of launching a military action, following reports that it intended to engage in a potential operation.

In a brief statement to Enab Baladi, it said, “The ministry has not issued any statement regarding this matter.”

The researcher in military affairs at the Jusoor for Studies Center, Rashid Hourani, believes that the military action being discussed could fall into two potential scenarios.

The first scenario leans towards “propaganda being promoted by Tahrir al-Sham, the largest faction in Idlib, in an attempt to overcome its internal crises and rally the population around it.”

The second possibility is that “the rumors being circulated may be true, given the operations carried out by the al-Fath al-Mubin Operation Room in the current and previous years,” according to Hourani.

The researcher added to Enab Baladi that these operations were “a result of the military restructuring of the HTS and other factions of the al-Fath al-Mubin Operation Room (including Tahrir al-Sham and other factions), thus promoting the growth of the military wing of these factions and the potential escalation against Hezbollah and Iran.”

Are there consequences?

The researcher at the Jusoor for Studies Center believes that the discussion of a potential military action “will lead to a new wave of displacement for residents close to the operational areas.”

If confirmed, Hourani expects that the initial stages of the military action would target areas lost by the Syrian opposition in 2019, which would urge displaced residents to return again to their homes.

In 2019, regime forces launched an attack on villages in the Idlib countryside, subsequently seizing several villages such as Maaret al-Numan and Khan Sheikhoun.

On the military front, the researcher stated that the potential operation could exert pressure on the Syrian regime, effectively surrounding it in the city of Aleppo.

Regime raises its readiness

Villages and towns in the Idlib countryside and western Aleppo bordering the confrontation lines are being subjected to intermittent shelling from the regime’s artillery, in addition to drone strikes.

According to Enab Baladi‘s reporters in the region and the Syria Civil Defence, these artillery and drone strikes hit civilian targets, causing damage to lives and property.

The local Al-Watan newspaper, on October 6, reported that the regime had raised its military readiness on its fronts in the “de-escalation zone” in the countryside of Idlib and its surroundings, in anticipation of an attack from “terrorists,” as it described them.

It quoted unnamed sources that opposition factions attacked the Dadikh point in southern Idlib multiple times.

According to the newspaper, regime forces attacked opposition gathering points in “de-escalation” areas with artillery shells and drones.

The Syria Civil Defence organization documented the deaths of 54 civilians due to shelling by the Syrian regime and Russia on northwestern Syria since the beginning of 2024 until mid-September.

Among the civilian casualties were 15 children and 6 women, in addition to 246 other injuries, including 96 children and 29 women.

More than 5 million people are living in northwestern Syria, according to United Nations estimates.

Among them, 3.5 million are internally displaced due to military operations between the Syrian regime and opposition factions.