Enab Baladi – Hani Karazi

Syrian organizations in the United States are racing to work towards extending the Caesar Act, with only two months left before its validity expires, coinciding with attempts to pass the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act, which, if achieved, would be a significant blow to the Syrian regime.

On December 17, 2019, the US House of Representatives and Senate approved the passage of the Caesar Act, and on the 21st of the same month, it became a law after being signed by former US President Donald Trump, thus becoming part of the US National Defense Authorization Act for the fiscal year 2020.

The Caesar Act came to increase the financial, economic, and political isolation of the Syrian regime, punish its allies, and force it to accept a political solution based on UN Security Council Resolution “2254.”

Pressure for a four-year extension

The Caesar Act is in effect for five years, thus it will expire on December 19, 2024, amid earnest efforts from Syrian organizations in the United States to extend this law.

On September 12 of last year, the American Coalition for Syria stated via its X account that Democratic Senator Ben Cardin, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, proposed an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025, allowing the extension of the Caesar Act for four years.

The Coalition said it met with key advisors in the campaigns of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the National Security Council, the State Department, and Congress, to pressure for preventing normalization with Bashar al-Assad, holding him accountable, extending the Caesar Act, and combating drug trafficking.

In this context, Syrian-American media personality and politician Ayman Abdul Nour told Enab Baladi that Senator Ben Cardin included a clause in the Anti-Normalization Act that proposes extending the Caesar Act until 2028, noting that some Republican representatives suggested extending the law for five years, while Democratic representatives proposed a three-year extension only, which led Cardin to propose a four-year extension as a middle ground between the two parties.

Abdul Nour, one of those who worked on the Caesar Act, added that it was not included as an independent item for a vote, but was attached as a provision within the Anti-Normalization Act, pointing out that it would have been better to present the Caesar Act for independent voting in Congress to ensure its approval by 100%, rather than attaching it to other laws that might affect the chances of its extension.

For his part, the executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, Mouaz Moustafa, said that the Syrian lobby in the United States continues negotiations with Congress through numerous meetings with both Democratic and Republican representatives, in addition to communication with Cardin’s office, which obstructed the Anti-Normalization Act with Assad, in order to pass as many laws as possible for Syria, at the top of which is the Caesar Act, which is now just a step away from being extended.

Moustafa added to Enab Baladi, “We were striving this year to include the topic of retracting the American recognition of the Syrian regime within the bundle of laws that Congress would vote on, but we failed due to Senator Cardin making amendments to the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act and removing other provisions that weakened it,” pointing out that the Syrian lobby in the United States will push again next year to pass the provision for retracting American recognition of the regime, which would have significant ramifications for al-Assad.

An exhibition of the photos smuggled by Caesar of the bodies of detainees who died under torture in the regime’s prisons at the United Nations headquarters – March 10, 2014 (Reuters)

Chances of extending the Caesar Act

The efforts to extend the Caesar Act coincide with the upcoming US elections taking place on November 5, which will result in the election of a new president after Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race, with his Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump competing for the presidency.

With the approaching arrival of a new American administration, there are fears that this will affect the chances of extending the Caesar Act, especially since the voting on the law in Congress will take place after the American elections.

Adding more fears surrounding the Caesar Act, President Biden obstructed the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act last April, despite its approval by the US Congress, and thus concerns arise that this will affect the odds of extending the law, especially since it will be voted on by Congress as part of the Anti-Normalization Act rather than as an independent law.

However, Bakr Ghbeis, a member of the board of the organization “Citizens for a Secure and Safe America,” assured Enab Baladi that the chances of extending the Caesar Act are very high, as there is a near consensus between the Republican and Democratic parties and the White House, and the foreign relations and armed services committees, as well as the House and Senate.

Ghbeis emphasized that there are no obstacles preventing the extension of the Caesar Act, and that the new administration will not directly influence the enactment of the law in Congress, indicating that “the Caesar Act will be extended whether the Anti-Normalization Act is passed or not.”

For his part, Ayman Abdul Nour confirmed that there is great optimism regarding the extension of the law, but attention is also focused on successfully passing the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act, which the Democratic administration in the White House opposes. Thus, if the Republicans win the presidency under Trump’s leadership, the Anti-Normalization Act will pass in its original form, as they are the ones who drafted and approved it in the House of Representatives. However, if the Democrats win under Harris’ leadership, this law may not pass, or it may be approved in its amended form which weakened its impacts.

Abdul Nour pointed out that if the House votes against the Anti-Normalization Act, a single clause will then be drafted allowing the extension of the Caesar Act, which Congress will then vote on and approve as an annex to the defense budget, which will then be sent to the current president, Joe Biden, who will officially endorse it.

Regarding the reasons for not passing the Anti-Normalization Act previously, Abdul Nour said that this law restricts the powers of the US State Department and its flexibility in operating in the Middle East, and obstructs its negotiations with al-Assad to release American detainees, which is why Cardin was instructed by Biden to obstruct it.

For his part, Mouaz Moustafa confirmed that several factors ensure a near certainty of extending the Caesar Act, the most important of which is that the US Congress has historically always worked to extend the laws it enacts, meaning that a law which the Congress does not want is not enacted in the first place. However, if it agrees to it, it tends to extend it continuously.

Moustafa added that there is a complete consensus among both Republicans and Democrats in the House and Senate to extend the Caesar Act, and thus its non-enactment by Congress or the US administration would amount to political suicide.

A law with strong impacts

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy published, in June 2023, an extensive study on the impacts achieved by the Caesar Act, confirming that the law expanded the sanctions imposed during former President Barack Obama’s era by applying enhanced penalties targeting the regime’s middlemen to prevent them from benefiting from efforts to seize the properties of Syrian residents or expatriates under the pretext of reconstruction.

The institute noted that the Caesar Act legitimizes secondary or derivative sanctions against the Assad regime’s intermediaries, which means it does not restrict only American individuals and entities from engaging in the reconstruction of Syria during Assad’s rule but also non-American individuals and entities. Thus, all investors will face a dilemma if they invest in Syria’s reconstruction under al-Assad, as they risk severing their business relationships not only with the United States but also with global financial institutions.

Confirming the law’s importance on the ground, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on 113 intermediaries of the regime in the six months following the entry of the Caesar Act into effect in June 2020.

In this context, Ayman Abdul Nour stated that the Caesar Act has achieved many goals; hypothetically, if the law didn’t exist, Gulf countries would be making financial deposits worth five billion dollars into the Syrian Central Bank for instance, as they did with Turkey and Egypt, which would help revive the regime’s collapsed economy, and European countries would have reopened their embassies with the regime and opened doors for trade exchange with it.

Abdul Nour added that the existence of the Caesar Act has prevented the regime from strengthening its military capabilities with ammunition and weapons; thus, its army remained weak and unable to open any battle in northeastern or northwestern Syria. Despite the law’s powerful impacts, it needed to be developed, which led to the proposal of the Assad Regime Anti-Normalization Act.

Meanwhile, the executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force pointed out that the Biden administration has not implemented many provisions of the Caesar Act, as the intensity of sanctions imposed against the Syrian regime and its allies has declined, which are supposed to be issued weekly or at least monthly. Simultaneously, the Caesar Act emphasizes standing against any normalization with the regime, but Biden has overlooked this, “thus we are working with the US Departments of Defense, Treasury, and State to ensure the implementation of the Caesar Act and not just its extension.

The Caesar Act holds the Syrian regime responsible for the war crimes it committed and allows for additional sanctions and financial restrictions on institutions and individuals who engage commercially with the regime.

The law also paves the way for imposing sanctions on foreign mercenaries from Russia and Iran, and on high-ranking military and civilian figures within the regime, including its head, Bashar al-Assad.

The law was named “Caesar” after a former Syrian military photographer nicknamed “Caesar,” who defected from the regime and managed to smuggle thousands of photos of the bodies of victims who died from torture in Assad’s prisons.