Enab Baladi – Khaled al-Jeratli

The repeated Israeli airstrikes in Syria raise questions about the reasons behind the presence of leaders from the Lebanese Hezbollah, at a time when the battlefronts ignite against Israeli forces advancing inside southern Lebanon.

The presence of these leaders was secretive in Syria until it was revealed by the Israeli strikes, particularly in the capital, Damascus, where several of them were killed in recent weeks.

The latest strike targeted the Mazzeh area on October 8, the objective of which remains unknown to this day, although the bombing resulted in civilian casualties.

On October 1, Israeli planes bombed a site near Al-Mazzeh villas, next to the French Park in the Syrian capital, from the direction of the Golan, resulting in three deaths and nine injuries, including journalist Safaa al-Ahmad, as well as material damages.

Hassan Jaafar Qusayr, the son-in-law of former Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in a strike targeting the same neighborhood on October 2.

Hezbollah positions itself in Syria

Following the intensification of Israeli strikes in Lebanon, the American Bloomberg agency reported that Hezbollah has built, since its intervention in Syria in 2012, bases and a complex network of tunnels along the Syrian-Lebanese border.

The agency quoted sources familiar with military movements as saying that after Israel assassinated Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, both Syria and Iraq would become major allies in transporting resources to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The sources indicated that Iran had transferred thousands of fighters from Iraq to Syria in the past two months and would attempt to transfer thousands more to the border regions between Lebanon and Syria to enhance its deterrent capabilities.

The American magazine “Time” reported from a source described as “well-informed” that Iran is working to transfer thousands of militants to the border areas between Syria and Lebanon.

The magazine’s source confirmed that “several thousand militants” had left Iraq over the past two months heading to Syria, and that Iran is “preparing to strengthen its deterrent capability.”

The magazine reported from Jonathan Lord, a former official at the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) and director of the Middle East security program at the New American Security Center, stating that “Iran does not fight for its proxies; rather, its proxies fight for it.”

Lord added that Tehran “is more interested in preserving itself and will not deliberately expose itself to danger.”

What’s next for Hezbollah in Syria

Hezbollah’s forces have been stationed in Syria for years, but their presence was not linked to the “Resistance Axis” war against Israel; rather, the “alliance” focused on thwarting the protests of Syrians opposing the regime in Syria.

Over the years, the “alliance” has fought a long war against Syrians, both peaceful and armed opposers, and this war has deepened Hezbollah’s presence in Syria until the Israeli military operations in Lebanon began, making this presence a danger for Israel, which has repeatedly targeted Hezbollah on the Syrian map.

Political analyst specializing in Iranian affairs, Mustafa al-Nuaimi, believes that there are conclusions that can be drawn from Hezbollah’s presence in Syria today, if the leaks about the presence of leaders are true.

Al-Nuaimi told Enab Baladi that this presence is based on a significant fear of the extent of the security and intelligence pursuit that allows the Israeli side access to the locations of Hezbollah leaders within Lebanese geography, so they attempt to change their places of residence within the state, not just their location.

According to the political analyst, Hezbollah today can be viewed as concealing some of its leaders to fill the void left after the killing of more than 50 of its leaders in Israeli strikes, in addition to injuring over 4000 leaders of groups. Thus, it hides part of its leaders in Syria to preserve them as alternative figures.

Reuters reported on October 11, citing two sources described as informed about Hezbollah operations, that the latter formed a new military leadership to manage rocket launches and ground operations, preparing for a lengthy war of attrition in southern Lebanon.

The agency’s sources added that Hezbollah still possesses a “large stockpile of weapons,” including its most powerful precision missiles, which it has not yet used, despite waves of airstrikes that Israel claims have severely depleted Hezbollah’s arsenal.

The agency quoted a field commander in Hezbollah saying that the leadership of the party was unsettled during the first few days after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah until its militants established a “new operations room” after 72 hours.

Shortly after the agency’s report was released, Hezbollah issued a statement denying some of the details mentioned, such as those related to the formation of an operations room and others concerning the war of attrition.

Syria as back line for support

At a time when Hezbollah is engaged in a war against Israel in Lebanon, it is not logical for its forces or groups to withdraw towards Syria, leaving the battlefronts with the Israelis active there, according to political analyst Mustafa al-Nuaimi.

Al-Nuaimi ruled out the withdrawal of forces towards Syria; on the contrary, he expected its forces to be withdrawn from Syria to Lebanon, but Hezbollah might resort to hiding its leaders in Syria to protect them, as he mentioned to Enab Baladi.

He added that the party might hide some non-field leaders in Syria, who represent a support military line, and might in the future create a form of “military diversion” on the Syrian front if necessary, aiming to draw Israeli forces towards southern Syria to drown them in a battle with “multi-national loyal militias” that are pre-equipped there.

Weakening Hezbollah in Syria

Prior to the start of Israeli military operations in Lebanon, Israel launched a military operation in the city of Masyaf, approximately 40 kilometers from the Lebanese border, which initially appeared to be extensive airstrikes that resulted in the deaths of more than 15 people and injured others.

The operation seemed to be the first shot in Israel’s war against Hezbollah, according to a report published by the American New York Times at the end of September, citing Israeli and American officials, stating that the operation was not an airstrike, but airdrops of Israeli forces onto Syrian soil in Masyaf, northwestern Hama province.

Previously, on June 10, information was provided by seven regional officials, diplomats, and Syrian officers to Reuters, indicating that Israel intensified its covert strikes in Syria against weapon sites, supply routes, and leaders associated with Iran, prior to a threat of a large-scale attack on Hezbollah.

The agency quoted three Syrian officials stating that Israeli movements indicate preparations for a large-scale war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could begin when Israel scales back its military campaign in Gaza.

An Israeli governmental official told Reuters that Israeli leaders had clearly stated that escalation “could be imminent in Lebanon.”

The Syrian officials and the Israeli official added that the Israeli campaign in Syria aims to ensure that Hezbollah is as weakened as possible before any type of fighting begins.