Zulfiqar (41 years old) does not trust the decisions of the Syrian regime’s government, despite being in favor of converting subsidies to cash. For him, the government’s failure to disclose the monthly cash subsidy amount is a significant indicator that citizens can expect more poverty and need.

Zulfiqar, who works remotely for a Saudi company and lives in Latakia, said he pays around 90,000 SYP monthly for bread, both subsidized and unsubsidized, for his family of four, as the current allocations are insufficient. Sometimes he helps his brother by buying him unsubsidized bread because he knows his brother, a government employee, cannot afford the cost of unsubsidized bread.

Zulfiqar added that the monthly cash allowance for subsidies, if approved, should start at 800,000 SYP and increase according to family size to be minimally fair. He said, “I doubt the government will grant such an amount; at best, it might give between 100,000 to 200,000 SYP, which are trivial sums aimed at further impoverishing the citizen and forcing them to pay the price of corruption and theft.”

At the end of last June, the Syrian regime’s government requested all citizens holding a smart card to open bank accounts within three months, in preparation for transferring cash subsidy amounts to these accounts once the cash subsidy system is fully operational. However, it did not specify the time frame for when cash subsidies would begin to be distributed.

On the other hand, Omar (38 years old), an engineer employed in the public sector, agrees with the decision and sees it as positive, especially since citizens can use the subsidy amount for other needs based on their consumption.

Another positive aspect of the decision, according to Omar, is that the unavailability of materials at all times makes it difficult for citizens to obtain them. For example, if household gas is not available, citizens cannot get the cylinder, but with cash subsidies, the citizen will have the money to purchase it regardless.

Omar stipulates that for the decision to be entirely positive, the subsidy amount must be fair and no less than 700,000 SYP per month, and it should be variable, meaning it should increase if prices rise rather than remain fixed like salaries while prices go up.

The topic of cash subsidies is rife with question marks. Despite numerous questions about the proposed monthly amount, the government has not issued any clarifications or shared the scenarios being studied with the citizens.

Rafat (60 years old), a retired employee, believes that lifting subsidies should be accompanied by a real increase in salaries, which was low even before 2011 under the pretext of subsidizing essential goods. Therefore, any lifting of subsidies without a real wage increase would be a “breach of the social contract.”

Rafat considered that the previous scenario will not come true, and the government will always have excuses such as sanctions and war. However, “even a newborn baby knows that corruption and mismanagement are the primary reasons for citizens’ poverty,” as he put it.

Divergent opinions

In a related context, economists’ opinions varied regarding the issue of converting subsidies to cash. Ali Kanaan, a professor at the Faculty of Economics, told the local radio station Sham FM last June that subsidizing commodities leads to significant wastage, shortages, and corruption, in addition to the inability to provide goods. He estimated that the expected monthly cash subsidy would range between 50,000 and 300,000 SYP per family.

Conversely, economist Amer Shahda said that the project, in its current form, is like a coup de grâce to the purchasing power of the Syrian pound, describing it as an absurdly detached theatrical performance. He considered that the results of this project would be disastrous on both social and economic levels and viewed it as a severe blow to the national economy.

Shahda demanded making the economic committee’s meeting minutes on this topic public and revealing the name of the minister who proposed this project.

Former Minister of Economy Lamia Assi also called on the government for transparency and to present different cash subsidy scenarios to the public for discussion.

Although the government has previously used the justification of being unable to implement cash subsidies, it recently hinted at the seriousness of considering it.

In a detailed report prepared by Enab Baladi following the recent government direction, the feasibility of converting subsidies to cash and the objectives of such a move were discussed, along with the impact of implementing this approach on citizens and subsidized goods alike.