The Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah reported today, Monday, July 22, citing a “well-informed” source, that the first meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Syrian regime’s President Bashar al-Assad is scheduled to take place in the Russian capital, Moscow.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will mediate the talks, to which Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani might be invited. It is anticipated that Iran will not be invited to the meeting, which may happen next August.

According to the source, the issue of Turkish withdrawal is not a precondition, but it has ultimately been agreed to discuss it, with the first round of talks focusing on economic aspects.

The newspaper considered that the possible exclusion of Iran might be a strong indicator of ongoing disputes and competition between Moscow and Tehran regarding Syria and its post-war future. It attributed the disputes between Moscow and Tehran to Russia’s constant wariness of the unrestrained and growing strength of Iran-backed militias in Syria and their future after the war, with differences on leadership, military operations, the use of Iranian bases, and Tehran’s hardline stance in negotiations, including the “Astana format” and its approach towards Israel.

The competition for energy contracts, economic resources, and the reconstruction of Syria has caused some friction.

Daily Sabah, in its article, considered that Russia’s move to invite Iraq while excluding Iran “kills two birds with one stone.” It can be seen as an attempt to drive a wedge between Baghdad and Tehran and to compensate for overshadowing al-Sudani, who aimed to host the first personal talks between Erdoğan and al-Assad himself, demonstrating the strength of relations between Moscow and Baghdad.

On July 15, al-Assad linked the possibility of meeting Erdoğan to achieving results, saying, “If the meeting, embrace, reproach, or beard-kissing, as commonly said, serves the country’s interests, I will do it. But the problem is not here; it lies in the content of the meeting.”

Al-Assad added, “We haven’t heard what the goal is — to solve the issue? Improve relations? Return them to their normal course? Or ask why relations deviated from their normal path 13 years ago.”

Despite Moscow’s welcoming stance towards contacts with neighboring countries that would allow Turkish normalization with the regime to develop successfully, as stated by Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, the British website “Middle East Eye” mentioned on July 11 that Russian President Vladimir Putin opposes the idea of Iraq hosting a meeting between al-Assad and Erdoğan and prefers holding the meeting in Turkey.

The website cited “well-informed” sources, stating that despite the tendency to conduct Turkish negotiations with the regime in Baghdad under Iraqi government auspices, the Iraqi Prime Minister aims to host the first personal meeting between Erdoğan and al-Assad in over a decade.