Enab Baladi – Yamen Moghrabi

The relationship between some European countries and the Syrian regime has seen rapid developments within a single week. Italy officially announced the appointment of an ambassador to Damascus on July 26, only five days after eight European countries called on the European Union to reevaluate its relations with the Syrian regime.

These moves were preceded by the decision of the Czech Republic last June to form a fact-finding committee to repatriate Syrian refugees.

The European moves have their dimensions. While these countries claim that the call came for humanitarian reasons and to increase their political influence, according to what was published by the British newspaper Financial Times at the time, it may also be related to the issue of Syrian refugees and their return to “safe areas” while the United States is occupied with its presidential elections and the potential return of former President Donald Trump to power.

According to observers interviewed by Enab Baladi, these moves have two aspects: the first relates to Europe and what it wants from announcing its openness to Damascus after years of secret communications on security and intelligence levels; the second relates to al-Assad and his regime and how they can benefit from these movements. In any case, it may be difficult to pass any settlement or deal without American approval.

Security relations have never ended

After the protests broke out in Syria in 2011 and the regime opted for a security solution against the demonstrators, EU countries decided to withdraw their ambassadors and close their diplomatic missions. However, this decision did not include all countries, and Hungary and the Czech Republic continued to operate in the capital.

Despite the diplomatic break between many EU countries and the Syrian regime for many years, security relations were not so. At least, according to what the former Lebanese General of Public Security Abbas Ibrahim revealed about organizing talks and mutual visits for Syrian and European officials, including the visit of the head of the National Security Office at the time, Ali Mamlouk, one of the highest security officials of the regime, to the Italian capital Rome at the request of the Italian intelligence.

Ibrahim stated in comments reported by the Saudi magazine, Al-Majalla, in November 2023, that the head of Italian intelligence also visited Damascus with him.

The Syrian regime will certainly invest the most significant European diplomatic step towards it since 2011 by portraying it as a new victory in its “battle against the conspiracy against it” and seeking to reap the maximum possible gains.

Achieving influence and gains

Former Syrian diplomat Dani al-Baaj sees in his conversation with Enab Baladi that Europe has not entirely cut off its relations with the Syrian regime, at least from the security side. He added that the regime, with Russian and Arab support and from its allies in general, is slowly regaining its international relations.

Although this step raises fears of a comprehensive and broad process to rehabilitate the regime, especially after the Arab movements in May 2023 in this regard, with the regime being granted Syria’s seat in the Arab League, or the recent Turkish moves in normalizing relations with Damascus, the European case may be different.

According to al-Baaj, the recognition from the European perspective is of the “Syrian state” to encourage the regime to negotiate and follow the negotiation process. The countries that announce relationships from the European side are those that had already open lines with the Syrian regime.

During a meeting of European Union foreign ministers to discuss the Middle East situation, European countries called for a reevaluation of relations with Syria and to communicate with the regime, according to the British newspaper, Financial Times, on July 22.

Before the meeting, the newspaper added that eight capitals, including Rome and Vienna, called on the Union to “review and evaluate” its approach towards Syria.

In a letter to the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, the Financial Times said it had seen, the foreign ministers of Austria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, Slovakia, and Slovenia wrote: “Our goal is a more active and results-oriented policy in Syria, allowing us to increase our political influence and humanitarian aid effectiveness.”

The letter from the foreign ministry stated that since 2017, the stabilization of the conflict, the comprehensive Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the moves by Arab countries to normalize relations with the regime have changed the dynamics, according to what Enab Baladi translated from the Financial Times report.

Despite these “important developments,” as described, the ministers added, “the EU’s policy towards Syria has not evolved, resulting in enormous humanitarian effort not translating into a comparable political role.”

The ministers proposed appointing an EU envoy to Syria who could communicate not only with Syrian actors but also with other regional countries, in addition to renewing communication with the Syrian regime’s ambassador to the European Union in the Belgian capital, Brussels.

Gateway to reconstruction

The regime’s declared demands among dozens mentioned by its officials, including al-Assad, are reconstruction and lifting sanctions, which al-Assad himself views as the initial steps for the return of refugees, a card that Europeans talk about more than anyone else in their statements about Syria.

Researcher Firas Faham from the Dimensions Center for Strategic Studies indicated in his interview with Enab Baladi that the Syrian regime looks at the west as a gateway to support reconstruction. Therefore, its main demand is the lifting of western sanctions imposed on it. He pointed out that after meeting several western officials over the past months, including the head of the Italian intelligence service, there are some European countries, particularly frontline migration countries like Italy, interested in the issue of refugee returns.

The researcher added that these parties discussed with the Syrian regime the facilitation of the return of refugees to safe areas in coordination with the United Nations, while the regime blackmails them regarding lifting sanctions to facilitate this process.

EU’s stance and Washington’s silence

The incomplete European vision, limited to the moves of eight countries, six from the Eastern bloc of the Union, alongside Italy and Austria, collides with the European Union’s three No’s: “No normalization, no lifting of sanctions, no reconstruction.” Also, there has been no decisive American reaction to these moves amidst a somewhat indirect withdrawal from regional issues.

According to al-Baaj, as long as the discourse is not about al-Assad leaving office, the regime bargains and currently plays within the vacant space resulting from the decreased American interest in the Syrian file.

The European Union maintains its boycott stance against the Syrian regime due to the violations it committed during its crackdown on protests over the 13 years of the Syrian revolution.

On May 28, the European Union extended its sanctions on the Syrian regime until June 2025.

According to a statement from the Union published on its official website, the European Council extended the restrictive measures imposed by the EU against the regime considering the severity of the deteriorating situation in Syria, along with the removal of five deceased individuals and another individual from the list.

Since 2011, the European Union imposed its sanctions on Syria, targeting 291 people with asset freezes and travel bans at the time, as well as freezing the financial assets of 70 entities in response to the Syrian regime’s repression of popular opposition and demands for political transition.