Enab Baladi – Khaled al-Jeratli
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced its response to missile attacks targeting northeastern Syria’s Conoco and Green Village bases, as US forces retaliated by shelling three vehicles and missile launchers for Iranian-backed militias in Deir Ezzor.
The attacks on the Conoco base began on 25 August with several rockets that “landed inside the perimeter of the base,” followed by similar attacks near the Green Village base, according to a CENTCOM statement, in which it noted that it is not trying to escalate against Iran.
On the same day, the local Euphrates Post news network posted a video that it said was of targeting the headquarters of a militia affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards near the Abdul Moneim Riad School in al-Mayadin city in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor.
The exchange of shelling between the two sides for two days in a row took the form of a potential military escalation, although it was limited to certain targeting operations that, according to preliminary information, did not result in significant losses to both sides.
The continued military escalation between both sides in Deir Ezzor has coincided with another drone strike targeting the US base of al-Tanf, southeastern Syria, which raises the question about the possibility of this escalation developing.
Potential implications
The researcher specializing in Iranian affairs, Mustafa al-Nuaimi, believes that the region is likely to witness further escalation with regard to all parties, especially after responses to mutual attacks are on the ground and without warning.
The possibility of the region witnessing an expansion of the range of targets to include new targets may rise over time, he told Enab Baladi.
The US will not limit its offensives to steady targets only but may expand to include moving targets, missile launchers, and drones.
In contrast, Tehran may move a range of its military sectors to target US interests in northeastern Syria, offset by movements of US fighter jets to respond to launch posts and platforms. This gradually complicates the situation, especially since Iran has used, for the first time, Katyusha missile launchers in militia-held areas where there are civilians, according to a US Central Command (CENTCOM) statement.
The US Air Force has spotted 11 targets for air strikes but has carried out only nine air strikes due to civilian movements within the range of the remaining targets.
Expanded targeting?
The expansion of Iran’s engagement with US forces in Syria came after 15 August, as Iranian drones targeted an international coalition military base in al-Tanf, southeastern Syria.
For its part, the International Coalition said in a comment on the targeting that its forces responded by intercepting drones “in partnership with our allies (Maghaweir al-Thawra Army),” while others exploded inside a “residential complex” affiliated with Maghaweir al-Thawra.
Mustafa al-Nuaimi considered this escalation to be a clear framework for widening the scope of the engagement, despite continued US reminders of the “consequences of provoking the United States.”
He added that the “scope of US targetings” would expand according to the scale of the Iranian escalation, and preliminary indications were that Iran would continue to respond by attacking US interests in Syria, possibly moving to Iraq, which could contribute to a dispersal of the efforts “to combat terrorism.” The United States remains committed to designating the Revolutionary Guard, a terrorist organization to ensure full legitimacy in targeting its movements through the waters of the Arabian Gulf to Syrian ports, al-Nuaimi reckons.
Iran and Deir Ezzor
Iranian militias are militant groups, the majority of which are local fighters but are directly affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard formed in Iran following the Iranian Islamic Revolution. The core of these militias is located in the Syrian governorate of Deir Ezzor.
These militias are generally led by an Iranian officer nicknamed al-Hajj Mahdi. In al-Mayadin and its countryside, they are headed by another leader nicknamed al-Hajj Hussein, while these militias are led by al-Hajj Askar in and around al-Bukamal.
The central command of these militias is located in the Iranian embassy in Damascus, where al-Hajj Yunus resides; he is responsible for all of Iran’s intelligence and military actions in Syria.
Deir Ezzor governorate has the most important Iranian military bases in Syria, such as those established by the former commander of Iran’s Quds Force under the name of Imam Ali military base or Ain al-Zaman military base.
Researcher Mustafa al-Nuaimi said that Iran has equipped these bases with warehouses inside mountains and tunnels, in addition to using them in training militia fighters and providing logistical support.
Meanwhile, Tehran, and specifically the leader of the Quds Force, Ismail Qaani, does not want to direct the militia to expand the scope of the attacks but rather wants to confine them to Syrian territory, which would motivate US targeting of these groups.
On the other hand, al-Nuaimi believes that the US’ “gradual escalation” policy will result in further targeting of those militias and their movements, bearing in mind that Deir Ezzor governorate is within Russian spheres of influence.
Given the coordination between the Americans and the Russians in Syria regarding “avoiding a clash between the two parties,” Iran will resort to strengthening its air defense units, whether with the regime’s military units or even by importing Khordad air defense systems from Iran, knowing that Iran has previously tried to install one of these systems, but it was targeted by Israeli raids at the time in three areas in Deir Ezzor, as well as in Aleppo and Hama, according to al-Nuaimi.
War of statements
On 26 August, US President Joe Biden said in a letter to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that Washington’s airstrikes on Iran-related targets in Syria this week had come to “protect and defend American personnel and obstruct a series of attacks on the United States and its partners.”
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed on the same day that four gunmen loyal to Iran had been killed as a result of an American response to the targeting of two US positions in northeastern Syria.
For his part, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Nasser Kanaani, denied that the US had targeted Iranian-related positions in Syria.
According to the official website of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, areas affected by US bombing in eastern Syria are not linked to Iran and is “targeting Syria’s infrastructure.”
Kanaani added that the continued presence of US forces in parts of Syria “contradicts international laws” and that it is “a violation of national sovereignty.”
Meanwhile, the Syrian regime did not comment through its official media on the recent targeting operation until the moment of editing this report, except for the official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)’s report of a missile attack targeting US bases in eastern Syria.
A look into the context
On 25 August, Deir Ezzor witnessed an exchange of bombardment between the US-led international coalition forces and militias loyal to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
Several days before this bombing, unidentified drones targeted an international coalition base in al-Tanf in the eastern countryside of Homs without information about the damage caused by the targeting, with the exception of some material damage to the homes of Maghaweir al-Thawra (MaT).
On the same day, the international coalition announced that one of its military bases had been targeted in the al-Omar oil field east of Deir Ezzor, northeastern Syria.
On 5 August, the Russian Ministry of Defense said in a statement that “Russian fighters eliminated a group of terrorists in eastern Syria who had been trained by elements of the US Special Operations Forces,” according to the Russia Today (RT) TV channel.
American forces responded to the attacks at different times. The US air force targeted Iranian headquarters in Deir Ezzor without warning several times earlier this year.
On 14 June, unidentified warplanes (likely affiliated with the coalition) targeted the headquarters of an Iranian-backed militia in the city of al-Bukamal, east of Deir Ezzor, followed by a mobilization of the regime forces in the area.
Prior to that, and on 21 April, unidentified warplanes targeted several military positions belonging to militias loyal to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in the al-Bukamal, east of Deir Ezzor.
The local Naher Media news website said at the time that a drone continued to fly over the targeted area without identifying the party responsible.