Enab Baladi – Amir Huquq

Since the fall of the Assad regime, international delegations have flocked to Damascus almost daily in an attempt to recontend with Syria after years of war that turned it into a theater for proxy wars among nations.

At the forefront of these delegations are the Gulf states, as they seek to strengthen ties with Syria and reintegrate it into its Arab surroundings.

The Gulf movements towards Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad stem from numerous reasons related to the influence of regional powers in the country, alongside regional and international changes, as well as the desire of these states to find solutions to the Syrian crisis and achieve stability in the region.

A new Syrian scene

The significant and sudden changes that have occurred in the Syrian scene have imposed a new political path on the states, particularly the Gulf countries.

The transitional Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa traveled to Saudi Arabia on February 2, marking his first official foreign visit shortly after assuming the presidency just days prior.

Before heading to Saudi Arabia, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani visited Damascus on January 30, discussing ways to support and develop relations between the two countries across various sectors and building a partnership that benefits both nations and their peoples.

With great interest

Emirati academic and political science professor Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla stated in an interview with Enab Baladi, “Gulf countries are closely and keenly monitoring the new Syrian scene, as Syria is important, and its stability is an Arab and Gulf priority; distancing it from the Iranian axis is a significant political and strategic gain.”

Thus, the Gulf countries took the lead in visiting Damascus and receiving Syrian delegations, according to Abdulla, including President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to Riyadh as his first foreign visit after his selection as transitional president of Syria.

Abdulla anticipated further Gulf-Syrian rapprochement and substantial Gulf support in various forms for Syria to regain its vitality.

Syrian political and military analyst Colonel Ahmad Hamada shares this view, affirming to Enab Baladi that “Syrian-Gulf relations are solid and robust, especially following the success of the Syrian revolution, while most Gulf states stood by the Syrian cause.”

Hamada believes that “al-Sharaa’s visit to Saudi Arabia was intended to ensure Saudi-Syrian relations and instill reassurance both inside Syria and abroad, given its economic and political strength, making it a major state in the region and the Arab world.”

Ensuring relations

On his part, Jordanian political and security expert Dr. Amer al-Sabaileh sees a genuine desire from Syria and some Gulf parties to establish good relations with Syria, which is clearly reflected in the rapid visits from Qatar and Saudi Arabia towards the Syrian axis.

The significance of al-Sharaa’s visit to Saudi Arabia serves as his first stop outside Syria and possesses substantial symbolic value regarding his choice of Saudi Arabia, which he has spoken of very positively in various meetings, considering it a role model, according to al-Sabaileh.

Al-Sharaa spoke about Saudi Arabia as an extremely important regional state with significant influence on major nations, and the partnership between modern Syria and Saudi Arabia will have a substantial impact. He expressed admiration for the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, deeming it a rescue from a strategic misstep in its economic structure.

Al-Sharaa chose to make his first media appearance on an Arab level through Saudi Al Arabiya channel and with the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat as his first interview with an Arab publication.

Giving the Arab space a clear opportunity

In a talk with Enab Baladi, Dr. Amer al-Sabaileh interpreted al-Sharaa’s approach towards Saudi Arabia by emphasizing its clear policy. “Riyadh aims to contain the region, as there is an opportunity for Arab diplomacy represented by Saudi Arabia to fill the Iranian vacuum that has formed in Syria and Lebanon. Thus, we talk about a Syrian approach to accommodate this matter and provide the Arab space with a clear opportunity post-liberation.”

The visit of the Qatari Emir can be viewed from a Gulf perspective, according to al-Sabaileh, but “there is a larger dimension for Qatar, being the only state that insisted on not recognizing Bashar al-Assad and maintaining its declared support for the Syrian revolution.”

He clarified, “Moreover, in terms of its alliance with Turkey and its good relations with Iran, this all indicates Qatar’s attempt to declare itself as the foremost player in Syria currently.”

Colonel Ahmad Hamada believes that “there are common denominators between all Arab states and Syria, as it has managed to expel Iranian forces from Syria, which was a Gulf and Arab demand.”

Tehran had been the major influence in Syria alongside Moscow since 2011; however, its presence has nearly vanished with the fall of the previous regime on December 8 and the takeover of al-Sharaa’s administration in the transitional phase.

Security first, economy later: Files awaiting resolution

Political circles await the files to be opened and focused on between Syria and the Gulf states, questioning whether the focus will primarily be on the Syrian political issue, including the security file, or on economic support as a potential remedy for the Gulf states to revive the Syrian economy.

In this context, Emirati academic Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla pointed out that “there are many files that deserve dialogue between Damascus and Gulf capitals, perhaps prioritizing the fight against terrorism and containing the remnants of the Islamic State on Syrian soil, followed by the file of ending drug production and confirming that it will not be resumed.”

He added that “Gulf states will contribute to the return of displaced people and refugees to their homes, as well as the task of reconstructing Syria. The Gulf states have both the capability and desire to upgrade the infrastructure that has suffered significantly over the past 15 years.”

These files are added to “assisting in building a Syrian army on new foundations and rehabilitating Syrian administration per global standards, where the UAE would take the lead in this area,” according to Abdulla.

Meanwhile, Dr. Amer al-Sabaileh believes Syria can start focusing on rebuilding its policies beginning regionally; the Arab dimension is extremely significant, and choosing Saudi Arabia is crucial in shaping its policies, with the key files needing to be emphasized being security and stability alongside the fight against drugs.

He speculated that “these cards are largely in the hands of the Syrian administration today, with the second part crystallizing into the economic interests that can be built on long-term benefits through major projects. This could be one of the essential headings that could make Syria capable of rebuilding its relationships with the region in a balanced manner.”

Colonel Ahmad Hamada views Gulf states as significant economic and political powers with relations with Arab nations and the USA, noting that Saudi Arabia and some Gulf states played a role in the partial lift of international sanctions on Syria for one year.

He asserted that “Gulf relations will strengthen Syria’s global connections, and Arab and Gulf states will be a positive factor in restoring trust in this new government and leadership in Syria. Consequently, some nations will follow the Gulf states’ lead towards Syria.”

Fear of Turkish influence

Due to Turkey’s support for the opposition forces since their inception, which led to the establishment of the authorities currently ruling in Syria, some Arab fears exist regarding the replacement of Iranian influence with Turkish influence.

Especially given Turkey’s political and military interests in Syria, notably the need to eradicate the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern and northeastern Syria to prevent these forces from establishing a “separatist region,” as termed by Turkey, which poses a threat to its border security.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that the new Syrian leadership is determined to uproot what he described as “the separatists” there.

He added that “the new administration in Syria shows a firm stance in maintaining the country’s territorial integrity and its unified structure.”

Dr. Abdulkhaleq Abdulla commented that “Turkey is an essential state for Syria due to its geographical proximity and extensive security and military relations with leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), making coordination with Turkey vital while ensuring that the new Syria does not become a Turkish province.”

It can be said, according to Abdulla, that two months after the fall of the Baath regime in Syria, there are bright aspects in the new Syrian scene that must be built upon and strengthened in the future.

Meanwhile, Dr. Amer al-Sabaileh believes that we are not discussing competition with Turkey for Saudi Arabia as much as the Kingdom’s reluctance to leave the vacuum that has formed in Syria, while taking into consideration the attempts at rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Turkey after the Gulf crisis.

He speculated that “the situation is more about forms of understanding on interests. Thus, it can be considered that Saudi Arabia is playing its role without showing any intention of confrontation or competition or displacing any party from Syria.”

The expectations of Syria’s return to its political stature and Arab uniqueness remain contingent on the unfolding events linked to regional and international changes, particularly those related to the decisions of the new US President, Donald Trump, and his handling of the Arab file in general and the Syrian situation specifically.