Enab Baladi – Muwafaq al-Khouja
The 14th anniversary of the Syrian revolution, which began in March 2011, is upon us. Many, even among its own people, believed it wouldn’t yield results and be rid of the Syrian regime that it revolted against. However, it did manage to overthrow it after years of despair, following a dynamic military operation that lasted 11 days and shocked the entire world with its speed, even to those who planned it.
After the regime’s downfall, questions arise: Has the revolution ended, and have the demands of the revolutionaries, who took to the streets for their cause, been fulfilled with the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives along the way?
Syria has suffered for more than 54 years under dictatorial rule under the authority of the Assad family, Hafez and Bashar. The so-called Arab Spring commenced from Tunisia in late 2010, ignited by Mohamed Bouazizi setting himself on fire in protest of living conditions and demanding dignity, sparking the flames of revolution that erupted there and extended to many Arab countries, reaching Syria in the spring of March.
From al-Hariqa to Daraa al-Balad
The beginning was in al-Hariqa Square near Souk al-Hamidiyya, where Syrians shouted in mid-February 2011, “The Syrian people will not be humiliated,” protesting against a traffic police officer who insulted a Syrian with curses.
Although it was not considered the start of the Syrian revolution, these were the first cries expressing the anger of the street during a period that foreshadowed an imminent explosion, even before Syrians announced its official start from Souk al-Hamidiyya on March 15 of that same year, a date that Syrians remember every year.
On March 18, 2011, the first demonstrations broke out on a Friday, a day that Syrians adopted weekly as the starting point for their protests. These protests continued peacefully for several months without the presence of weapons from the revolutionary side. On that day, the first two casualties fell in the city of Daraa in southern Syria: Hussam Ayyash and Mahmoud al-Jawabrah, and thereafter the regime’s series of killings against its opponents in the streets continued.
As a result of the continued killings by the Syrian regime of protesters, officers and soldiers defected, with the first to do so being conscripts from the Republican Guard. Then, Lieutenant Colonel Hussein Harmoush emerged, forming what was known at the time as “The Free Officers Movement,” the first military formation of the Syrian revolution, followed by the “Free Syrian Army,” which evolved into multiple factions with varying orientations and loyalties.
Many attributed the proliferation of the military entities loyal to the revolution, comprised of defectors and civilians, to their failure to unite under a single command, exacerbated by political funding and external agendas that controlled some of these factions. The entry of foreign elements, many of whom had goals far from the demands for which the revolution was launched, contributed to an international isolation, branding some of these formations with terrorism accusations, in addition to the internal fighting that plagued the revolution throughout the past years.
Expansion then contraction
The liberated areas from the regime’s grip expanded until reaching their peak in mid-2013, only to contract after that due to various factors, the most significant of which was Iranian intervention and the regime’s recruitment of sectarian factions. The Russian military’s entry into the fray in late September 2015 significantly altered the maps of control.
During these years, the former regime dealt with these areas using a scorched earth policy, directing artillery, rockets, planes, and barrel bombs against them, and launching chemical attacks that activists termed “bloodless massacres” in more than one area in Syria, most notably in al-Ghouta in Damascus, Khan Sheikhoun in Idlib, and Khan al-Assal in Aleppo.
Due to the fragmentation of opposition-controlled areas from one another as a result of brutal handling, policies of displacement, and siege, the regime conducted reconciliations and evacuated opposition fighters and their families in green buses to northern Syria, peaking in 2018. Idlib governorate and the northern countryside of Aleppo became stable for these families and a haven for factions.
From the north… After losing hope
After 2018, the regime undertook a wide-ranging military operation aimed at terminating opposition presence in northern Syria, with clear support from Russia and Iran, compelling neighboring Turkey to intervene for several reasons, including fears of large waves of refugees.
Turkey negotiated with Russia, resulting in what was termed “de-escalation agreements,” aimed at ending military operations and establishing monitoring points along the front lines between the two sides.
Despite numerous violations, the frequency of military operations decreased significantly after 2020, paving the way for a governmental groundwork for the Syrian opposition, which led to the foundation of the current government in Damascus.
More than three years after military operations had almost completely ceased, and with lost hope for any movements on the ground, Syrians woke up again to the sound of military operations on November 27, 2024, as the newly formed Military Operations Administration announced the launch of “Deterrence of Aggression.” This initial operation took place in western Aleppo countryside, quickly expanding to cover the entire administrative borders of Idlib and the largest part of Aleppo governorate.
During this period, discussions arose regarding the opposition’s ability to maintain the areas they had recently gained, and the regime’s typical violent response. However, the Military Operations Administration had plans that surpassed what Syrians had imagined, extending military engagements towards Hama and then Homs to reach the capital, Damascus, on December 8, 2024, where Syrians announced victory for the Syrian revolution over the Assad regime after 54 years.
Did the revolution achieve its goals?
Syrians celebrate the anniversary of the revolution in various squares across the country for the first time after the fall of Assad regime.
Political analyst Hassan al-Nifi told Enab Baladi that this year’s anniversary comes with special significance, considering that the primary goal of the revolution—to overthrow the regime’s head, Bashar al-Assad—has been achieved.
He added that this does not mean that efforts should cease or that the revolution’s goals have been fully attained, noting that while the revolution entails a process of destruction, it also significantly involves a process of construction.
Academic researcher Dr. Abdul Moneim Zain al-Din, a former coordinator among opposition factions, stated that the revolution arose as a result of the injustice and oppression exercised by the previous regime against the Syrian people.
One of its main objectives was to overthrow the “gang” to rid Syria of an era of “crimes, injustice, oppression, genocide, and tyranny” and transition it to an era of freedom, dignity, and law.
He added in his discussion with Enab Baladi that what has been achieved from these goals is the downfall of Assad’s regime, which he considers an accomplishment for the Syrian people across all sectors who fought the liberation battle.
The revolution’s second goal, according to Zain al-Din, is to bring Syria to a state of freedom, justice, dignity, citizenship, and law, which means that the state is entering a new phase of establishment and construction.
This process of rebuilding will benefit from all segments of Syrian society that have not had their hands stained with blood, as Zain al-Din expressed, mainly those who “believed in change and sacrificed for it,” among the revolution’s children, and they should be activated and utilized in all aspects of the state.
From revolution to state
The term “revolution” means breaking away from the status quo and changing it, driven by discontent and a desire for improvement, in order to achieve demands and alter the system of governance, according to the definition by the Omran Center for Strategic Studies.
According to an article by Omran Center, the Syrian revolution has passed through several phases. Initially, it was a popular revolution, which then transitioned toward military conflict due to excessive violence, leading to its evolution into a national resistance movement against an occupying force after the entry of foreign entities.
Days after the regime’s fall, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa spoke about the transitional phase in a discussion with Arab activists, indicating that the policy of the new Syrian administration was shifting from a revolutionary mentality to a state mentality.
According to Omran Center, transitioning from a revolutionary state to a state mentality requires several steps and mechanisms, as there is a significant difference between a revolutionary who is driven by revolutionary ideology and a statesman who must be governed by reality, possessing the ability to read it and act pragmatically within its available margins.
On the other hand, analyst al-Nifi believes that transitioning to a state mentality does not mean completely abandoning revolutionary thought, but rather reinforcing a significant portion with constructive revolutionary ideas, as it does not always mean destruction and entering into chaos.
History of revolutions consistently proves that those who aspire to build a state must offer numerous concessions and operate with pragmatism, taking into account the public interest rather than just immediate gains.
Hassan al-Nifi, Political analyst
Al-Sharaa’s statement came early following the fall of the previous regime, implying that part of the revolution’s objectives has been achieved, while the rest remains, according to al-Nifi.
Al-Nifi believes that what al-Sharaa implies is that the revolution embodies many reactions of destruction, behaviors that rely on immediate thinking and tactical interests associated with the revolution. However, after achieving the goal of the regime’s fall, Syrian consciousness must transition to another stage, which is construction.
This construction phase must consider the interests of all citizens, as not all Syrians are revolutionaries, and those who did not participate in the revolution also have rights and interests, al-Nifi added.
He stated that the revolution is a national achievement for all Syrians, calling on the new Syrian administration to consider the interests of all Syrians, who all have the right to participate in shaping their future according to their aspirations.