Jana al-Issa | Hassan Ibrahim | Ali Darwish

The duration of the caretaker government’s mandate is nearing its end, and the country is still waiting for a transitional government that is supposed to remain in place for years until the presidential elections in Syria are held.

Starting from the economy and the state of services, to the political, military, and security realities, there are many urgent priorities awaiting change; the 90 days during which the government has operated have not been sufficient to bring about the expected changes across various levels.

In a country like Syria, which has suffered from war and its effects for 14 years, government policies require carefully studied plans to bring about the desired change, and the space may not be wide enough for the interim government to achieve significant transformation.

A new transitional government is expected to be appointed this March, which will include all segments of society and take into account the diversity of the Syrian people, according to statements made by Minister of Foreign Affairs Asaad al-Shibani, benefiting from past mistakes to ensure the upcoming phase.

Enab Baladi seeks to highlight the most notable achievements of the interim government of Damascus during its tenure, evaluate its performance, and indicate urgent issues that the upcoming transitional government should prioritize.

Politically…

An incomplete start in the right direction

Politically, the interim government has moved in the direction of reassuring neighboring countries, the region, and the West that Syria is not a source of threat to any nation, with Syrian President in the transitional phase, Ahmed al-Sharaa, denying the presence of any hostile plans in Syria. This was affirmed in a series of receptions, visits, and meetings involving al-Sharaa and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Asaad al-Shibani, who was assigned to the ministerial position on December 21, 2024.

The interim government of Damascus has initiated a contrasting path to Syria’s foreign policy under the previous Assad regime, breaking the isolation and severance that Syria has faced through diplomatic engagements by al-Shibani and his meetings, effectively starting to mend the discord with various nations.

This openness toward neighboring Arab and Western countries is unlike the era of Bashar al-Assad, who accused Arab nations of “supporting terrorism and destabilizing Syria,” described the West as “ridiculous and foolish,” and had threats issued by former Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem to “erase Europe off the map.” Former Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad had defended Russia, Assad’s ally in killing Syrians, during its conflict with the West.

The recent phase witnessed the presence of al-Sharaa and al-Shibani in visits that were the first of their kind after years of estrangement, and official meetings for the first time (Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, and others), participation in significant international conferences (Davos, Paris, Munich, the World Government Summit in the UAE, among others), along with receiving and visiting active countries in the world.

The government adopted a “reassurance” approach before reaching Damascus and toppling Bashar al-Assad. This manifested as messages directed at both domestic and international audiences, accompanying the operation of “Deterrence of Aggression.” The Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib (the core of the current interim government of Damascus) prioritized internal messages to prevent targeting or threats based on sectarian or ethnic affiliations and external messages to Iraq, indicating that the Syrian revolution poses no threat to security or stability, and to Russia as a “potential partner.”

“Balanced policy”

In the Syrian National Dialogue Conference, al-Shibani stated that the ministry operated under a balanced foreign policy based on openness, dialogue, and effective diplomacy, grounded in firm principles of respecting national sovereignty and refraining from intervening in the affairs of others while aligning on mutual interests.

He added that the avenue was clear: Syria is an integral part of its surroundings and believes that regional and international cooperation is the path to confronting challenges, considering the diplomatic efforts undertaken as a significant step towards restoring Syria’s active role at regional and international levels.

Al-Shibani noted that foreign policy is based on balance and openness and emphasized the importance of establishing strong relationships with countries that respect Syria’s sovereignty while leaving the door open for dialogue with any party wishing to restore relations with Syria based on mutual respect.

 

We focus on building genuine partnerships with leading nations contributing to the reconstruction of Syria and opening new horizons for investment and collaboration in various sectors.

Asaad al-Shibani, Syrian Foreign Minister

 

Important steps that are still incomplete

The researcher on jihadist groups, Orabi Orabi, considered that the visits and meetings conducted by al-Shibani are a very important step in restoring relations with Syria, but they are not sufficient unless there are visits to Britain and the United States.

Orabi believes, in an interview with Enab Baladi, that these visits are still incomplete for fully repairing relationships, arguing that breaking the isolation of Syria requires engagement at both the political and economic levels. He pointed out that the sanctions on Syria hinder economic engagement; in the presence of international economic agreements with Syria, the political side would become more flexible.

Orabi stated that the movement that al-Shibani has undertaken since being appointed to the ministry indicates old diplomatic experience, noting that his work in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has developed his expertise. His discourse is clear and reflects this expertise.

The researcher believes that the Syrian state needs to enhance internal political dialogue, strengthen security ties, and cooperate with Iraq, Jordan, and Turkey, as well as find a formula to involve minorities to create impact and persuade the international community.

Former US State Department advisor, Hazem al-Ghabra, regarded the visits and meetings directed at Syria as very natural at this stage, as Syria is transitioning from a “rogue state sponsoring terrorism” (state terrorism against its people and transnational terrorism) to a new regime.

Al-Ghabra told Enab Baladi that it is normal for countries wishing to relieve the Syrian people in this complicated phase to engage, transitioning from a discarded regime to a new system that respects the security and freedom of the Syrian people as well as neighboring countries and the region.

However, these countries are somewhat apprehensive, which is natural, as transformation and change, especially in the Middle East, stir concerns. According to al-Ghabra, this interest has been translated into diplomatic actions, inviting the Syrian government and its representatives to international meetings, and everything necessary to unify perspectives and reach a better understanding of the needs of both sides, leading to a better stage for the Syrian people and the region.

Al-Ghabra believes that the political movement is still a step and not the end of the road. One meeting and a single invitation will not fully change the relationship between Syria and the countries involved, emphasizing that these meetings should translate into additional actions.

A clear policy is required

Several politically complex files regarding Syria remain unresolved, primarily with Russia and Iran, Assad’s allies. Communication channels with Moscow exist, and the “dialogue” continues without establishing a clear understanding regarding the relationship, while Iranian positions are following two tracks: one involves a sort of escalation, and the other relies on soft diplomatic discourse amidst Syrian warnings to Tehran against sowing chaos and intervening in Syria’s internal affairs.

Another file concerns the threats, targeting, and Israeli incursions into Syria, followed by Israel’s characterization of the new Syrian government as “an Islamic jihadist terrorist group from Idlib that seized Damascus by force.”

In his first comment on the Israeli incursion after the fall of the Assad regime, the Syrian transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, stated on December 14, 2024, that Israel’s justifications have ended, asserting that there is no need for external intervention in Syria now that the Iranian presence in the country has been terminated. He confirmed that he does not intend to engage in an armed struggle with Israel, considering it is not the battle he intends to fight.

Former US State Department advisor, Hazem al-Ghabra, told Enab Baladi that there is a gap between rhetoric and action in public policy, which is what regional and global countries expect from Syria today: how to transition from mere interesting and beneficial statements to a policy that translates into action. He emphasized that everyone should not wait for actions without clarity in public policy regarding major issues in the region.

Al-Ghabra added that some of the hottest issues today include the relationship with Israel, deeming it necessary to have at least a more direct dialogue between the new government and Israel, as the latter is a key player in the Middle East.

He noted that many countries, including the United States, view this issue as fundamental in understanding the orientation of the new government in Syria, not only due to the Israeli-American relations but also because Syria and Israel share borders and have historically poor relations.

 

What Syria needs today is a clear policy regarding these files, even if it is not acceptable to one party or another, as no government can satisfy everyone. Attempting to appease everyone on the international stage will lead to a scenario where no one is satisfied. Therefore, there should be a clear public direction to reach a new phase, as the region is one of regional orientations.

Hazem al-Ghabra, Former US State Department Advisor

 

Al-Ghabra stated that Syria’s policy is moving in the right direction, but there needs to be clarity regarding the files that will shape the future of Syrian foreign policy. At this stage, policies must start to be adopted, and commitments to very clear policies must be made regarding Syria’s regional and international positioning, its friends, allies, and partners.

He stated that Syria wants friendship with everyone, but partnerships and alliances must be specific and clear, as there are pathways in this region, and the Syrian government must have a clear path within them.

Militarily and security-wise… Multiple obstacles

The military and security sectors have gained noticeable focus over the past three months, despite delays in appointing a Minister of Defense since the Salvation Government does not have a Defense Ministry. Al-Sharaa appointed Murhaf Abu Qasra, one of his closest leaders, as Minister of Defense on December 31, 2024.

Abu Qasra’s appointment came 21 days after Mohammed al-Bashir was tasked to lead the government; however, Abu Qasra has a more prominent media presence compared to the Prime Minister.

Numerous obstacles

The Damascus government faces several obstacles on the military front, according to military analyst Colonel Ahmad Hamada, which include a lack of control over all Syrian territories and the absence of a regular army after the military’s dissolution, while remnants of the regime continue to exist.

Hamada told Enab Baladi that the dissolution of the army has led to an unstable weapons situation, coinciding with intensified Israeli strikes and incursions into Quneitra governorate, threatening to make the southern region (Daraa, Quneitra, and As-Suwayda governorates) a demilitarized zone.

Military affairs specialist at the Jusoor for Studies center, Rashid Hourani, stated that the most significant challenges faced by the government militarily relate to the economic situation.

Hourani explained to Enab Baladi that the economic weakness in Syria has naturally affected military capabilities, such as establishing new camps, arming them, training them, and increasing their personnel to adequately cover all Syrian territories.

The government is also encountering difficulties concerning the structure of military factions and their personnel, as the factions rely on local volunteerism to defend their land and residences. After the regime’s fall, these volunteers, including professionals, students, and teachers, will return to their primary occupations.

Additionally, there is relative disparity in the nature of the work of the factions; for example, the factions in As-Suwayda have missions that differ from those in the north, according to Hourani.

The challenges of the South and the East

The issues of the South and northeast Syria occupy the minds of Syrians after the fall of the Assad regime. In northeast Syria, which is under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), there’s a constant maneuvering with the Damascus government aimed at gaining leverage on various levels.

The SDF holds significant cards, primarily International Coalition support, control over most of Syria’s oil wealth, along with managing prisons that house approximately 9,000 fighters of the Islamic State group, as well as camps that shelter families of the group’s members, both Syrian and foreign.

Turkey’s threat to launch a military operation and the Damascus administration’s preference for a negotiated solution over military action have not yielded clear results up to the time of preparing this report, despite statements issued by the SDF suggesting that negotiations had reached a good stage.

Negotiations are ongoing between the government in Damascus and the SDF regarding its integration into the new Syrian army formation. The latter wants to maintain its entity and join as battalions, while the new Syrian authority insists on dissolving it and integrating its members as individuals.

The SDF has announced on multiple occasions the formation of technical committees to coordinate military and civilian matters with Damascus.

The commander of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, stated on February 26 that the results of negotiations with the interim Damascus government would be evident within the next two weeks, indicating that understandings were in place.

As for the South, despite the presence of Damascus government forces in Daraa and their deployment, there are indications of a disagreement between the Damascus government and the leader of the Eighth Brigade, Ahmad al-Awda, regarding the extent of representation for al-Awda and his faction.

The Minister of Defense stated to The Washington Post on February 6 that there are several factions resistant to joining the Ministry of Defense, including Ahmad al-Awda, who resisted attempts to place his unit under state control. In contrast, there are about 100 armed factions in Syria that have agreed to join the Ministry of Defense.

Four days later, a leader in the Eighth Brigade, Naseem Abu Arrah, denied the Minister of Defense’s statements, saying that the people of the South were the first to call for the establishment of a national Ministry of Defense that operates according to disciplined military rules.

He believes that the desired Ministry of Defense should optimally benefit from the experiences of officers and revolutionaries and ensure representation of all components of Syria without exclusion or marginalization.

In the neighboring As-Suwayda, various military factions exist, either affiliated with the Sheikh of the Mind or those that received weapons from the regime’s security apparatus previously, especially the Military Security. There is no effective presence or representation on the ground for forces of the Ministry of Defense.

In recent weeks, varying positions have emerged from As-Suwayda, some indicating cooperation with the government, while others attempt delays and obstruction.

Consultations continue among military faction leaders and religious authorities to reach a decision that all components of As-Suwayda can agree on, as reported by observers, insiders, and participants in these consultations to Enab Baladi.

The spiritual leader of the Druze community in Syria, Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, expressed his dissatisfaction with the steps taken by the new government in a statement to Reuters on February 24.

Al-Hijri said, “So far, we respect all opinions, but we have not seen the ability to lead the country or to form the state correctly,” adding, “We are moving forward in that regard, hoping that things will be organized or that something new will happen by the end of the transitional period.”

Al-Hijri called for involving influential countries in Syria to ensure that the political process results in a civil state, with separation of powers and the rule of law.

Meanwhile, several sheikhs, notables, and military leaders from As-Suwayda met with al-Sharaa, describing their meeting as positive, including Laith al-Balous, son of Sheikh Wahid al-Balous, founder of the Men of Dignity Movement, and Suleiman Abdul Baqi, commander of the Ahrar Jabal al-Arab Gathering.

On February 4, the Men of Dignity Movement, one of the largest factions in As-Suwayda, called for the end of armed manifestations in the city and to support the police apparatus belonging to the interim Damascus government.

The movement’s leader, Yahya Hajjar, stated that the movement would cooperate with the civilian police and conduct joint patrols, paving the way for the establishment of a legal state characterized by justice and the building of the “new and desired Syria.”

These events in Daraa and As-Suwayda coincide with Israeli incursions in Quneitra province, building military bases, confiscating military equipment, and blowing up military posts.

Has the integration of factions succeeded?

The General Command in Syria, during the “Victory Conference,” announced on January 29 the dissolution of the army and revolutionary factions.

Prior to the army’s dissolution, the Minister of Defense held meetings with several military factions to move forward in rebuilding the army and ending the factional state.

The government has largely succeeded in integrating the factions, according to researcher Rashid Hourani, who noted that it is currently in the process of distribution and deployment across Syrian geography, and over time, the extent of the government’s success will become clearer.

As for the issue of professionalism (transitioning to a professional army), it requires training and future courses for personnel. However, compared to what the Military Operations Administration factions achieved in overthrowing the Assad regime, they will likely repeat their success within the framework of state-building, ensuring a sustainable influx of personnel more attractively than before, according to Hourani.

For his part, Colonel Ahmad Hamada stated that the issue of faction integration remains theoretical; everyone has agreed, and there is a distribution of military divisions according to existing factions, but on the ground, this issue still needs time for qualification and organization.

Hamada pointed out that the existence of factions that are not integrated with the army poses an obstacle and requires significant efforts and some time to establish a systematic military institution.

According to Hourani, the government must work to expand the participation of military expertise and defected officers, resolve outstanding issues in the South and northeast, and establish a clear structure for the new army to begin internal work regarding training and creating a combat doctrine and related matters.

Hamada confirmed that the government made “great” efforts in the past three months regarding the issues of south and northeast Syria, through negotiations and reaching some common denominators in northeast Syria, and “all of these matters are taken into account,” as he expressed.

Hamada believes that matters are moving in the right direction towards establishing a military institution capable of protecting the homeland, and the government is working to overcome the challenges it faces.

Economically and service-wise:

Promises exceeding the ability to execute

In the economic and service sectors, the interim government of Damascus has not changed key aspects over three months that are clearly reflected on the Syrians, despite numerous promises made over the past months.

Upon taking over its responsibilities, the government made an immediate decision to implement in various sectors, which was to restructure the economy, originally socialist then transformed into a totalitarian model, into an open free market. This decision was deemed by some experts as not suitable for the current time, considering the situation Syria is experiencing and its exit from a war that devastated much of it. They believe that it is more appropriate initially to implement a directed economy, even if in a limited way.

The government could not stabilize the exchange rate of the pound, which suffered shocks that significantly affected the savings of Syrians in foreign currencies. It also failed to control the phenomenon of traders speculating on the pound, as its value remains highly volatile with any potential political or economic event that may occur in the country.

In another decision widely criticized by experts, the government adopted a policy of liquidity suppression, which is a measure taken by the Central Bank of Syria (CBS) to achieve an “illusory” rise in the pound’s value, one of the main factors leading to economic stagnation. The lack of cash availability in the markets results in slowed economic activity, reduced investments, and diminished purchasing power for individuals and companies.

In terms of salaries, despite the government’s official announcement to raise salaries by 400%, employees have not received this increase, with delays in their salaries even before the raise. Furthermore, this increase only included those currently employed in state institutions, while retirees and newly dismissed employees were excluded.

The salary increase sparked controversy following a contradictory official statement about the source of this increase. A source from the Syrian Ministry of Finance told Reuters that they do not have confirmation of foreign funding for salaries, although there have been general assurances of support. However, these assurances remain unimplementable due to American sanctions.

In contrast, the governor of the Syrian Central Bank, Maysaa Sabrine, stated that the bank has sufficient funds in its coffers to pay employees even after the 400% increase approved by the interim government.

The most prominent approach of the interim government, which has faced criticism from many experts, is the government’s move towards privatizing the public sector and selling state institutions, as stated by several ministers who confirmed that this would be an inevitable fate for the sector, considering it a loss-making one. However, this approach and its timing raise concerns regarding the impact of this step on citizens, especially since some experts believe that the timing is fundamentally inappropriate for such a direction, in addition to the fact that the decision should be made by a transitional government, and not by a caretaker government in principle.

Service-wise: Promises that did not materialize

Earlier, the Minister of Electricity in the interim government, Omar Shaqrouq, stated that the Ministry of Electricity has prepared a long-term plan to improve the electrical situation, which requires three years to provide citizens with power for 24 hours a day.

In early February, Shaqrouq mentioned that the Ministry of Electricity plans to reduce the number of power rationing hours and provide electricity for between 8 and 10 hours daily in the short term, a situation that has yet to occur.

After the fall of the regime, several countries pledged to improve the service reality in Syria concerning infrastructure or electricity, but these pledges did not materialize into practical projects on the ground, leading Syrians to observe no improvements in this regard.

Regarding fuel supplies, the interim government managed to secure an abundance of materials at the cost of rising prices that do not align with income levels, a state that Syrians under the previous regime would resort to only in dire circumstances due to receiving fuel materials at a subsidized price. However, the quantities distributed then were insufficient for a family’s needs of diesel, gasoline, and gas.

In mid-January, the Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources in the interim government, Ghiyath Diab, announced the opening of the field for the private sector to import petroleum materials to Syria but without permitting the distribution of these materials. This decision was viewed positively by experts but under the condition of having strict laws in this context.

No accurate evaluations

Regarding the evaluation of the interim government’s work in the economic and service sectors, economic researcher Radwan al-Dibs believes that comparing the time the government took office with its achievements reveals both positives and negatives.

Among the positives, al-Dibs noted to Enab Baladi the improvement in the Syrian currency’s value against the dollar, which increased from 14,000 pounds to approximately 10,000 pounds per dollar, in addition to a good supply of essential goods and raw materials in the markets resulting from the pound’s strengthening and the crackdown on corruption, eliminating the extortion fees that inflated the prices of goods transported between provinces.

As for the negatives experienced by Syrians during this period, al-Dibs clarified that the most significant issue was the increased hours of electricity rationing due to the unavailability of petroleum materials for operating power plants, along with the rising prices of some imported materials such as gasoline and diesel after the lifting of subsidies, which consequently affected the prices of bread.

The economic researcher described the government’s work during the past period as “good” but criticized it for taking on responsibilities that do not match its capabilities, remarking that it made promises that were logically impossible to execute in the near term. A clear example of this is the promises made by the Minister of Electricity to raise the hours of power supply to eight hours.

Regarding what should be prioritized by the upcoming transitional government, researcher al-Dibs believes it is essential for the next government to conduct a thorough evaluation of the current situation across different sectors and provinces to determine the necessary steps to be taken step by step, thus establishing an organized plan for the requisite reforms.

This evaluation should be accompanied by proposals for work plans and reform and development strategies intended. Decisions should then be made based on the studies of these evaluations and the feasibility of the reform plans, after which promises can be made to the people.

In mid-February, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) estimated in a report that Syria will need at least 50 years to restore its pre-war economic levels, assuming strong growth.

According to the report, 14 years of war have delayed economic and social progress in Syria by approximately 40 years, the GDP of Syria has dropped by 50%, and the poverty rate has surged from 33% before the war to 90% currently, while the extreme poverty rate has reached 66%.

The UN report indicated that the Syrian economy needs 55 years to return to its pre-war levels if current growth persists at 1.3%.