Syrian caretaker government faces the 90-day test

  • 2025/01/01
  • 11:46 pm
Military Operations Administration leader Ahmed al-Sharaa announces the victory of the Syrian revolution from the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus - December 8, 2024 (AFP)

Military Operations Administration leader Ahmed al-Sharaa announces the victory of the Syrian revolution from the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus - December 8, 2024 (AFP)

Hassan Ibrahim | Hani Karazi | Jana al-Issa

The countdown has begun for the Syrian caretaker government, which is steering the reins of power amid a politically, economically, and security-weak structure, within a time frame of 90 days that remains marked by ambiguity and fragmentation, facing obstacles, with discussions about the transition from a revolutionary mindset to a state and institutional mindset.

Under international, humanitarian, and popular scrutiny, the interim government is slowly gaining ground in Syria’s halls of power, expanding from its core, the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), which has been operating in Idlib since 2017, to control key sectors across the Syrian geography.

A drained, fragmented, and devastated country carries a heavy legacy, extending roots to 53 years of rule by the Assad family, having spent the last 13 years in the worst rankings worldwide on multiple levels. It awaits, since Bashar al-Assad’s escape on December 8 of this year, for at least minimal changes, with hopes for gradual recovery and the creation of a foundation to establish the state that Syrians aspire to.

In this lengthy report, Enab Baladi sheds light on the steps of the caretaker government politically, economically, and security-wise, what can be accomplished in the 90-day period, the obstacles it faces, and discusses with specialists and experts the details of these steps, their priorities, what needs to be presented, and their implications.

Three phases for a new Syria

On November 27, the Syrian opposition factions launched the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation against Bashar al-Assad’s forces and their allies, which led to the regime’s downfall within 11 days and al-Assad’s escape to Russia.

The Military Operations Administration, which conducted the battle, appointed Mohammed al-Bashir (the head of the Salvation Government) on December 10 to form an interim government until March 1, 2025, which has begun to assume tasks and powers.

The leader of the Military Operations Administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammad al-Jolani), dominated the scene, meeting with several international and humanitarian delegations in the capital, Damascus, and outlining three phases that Syria must go through: the first is the establishment of an interim government, which has been achieved with the presence of the caretaker government.

The second phase consists of calling for an all-Syrian national conference to vote on several important issues, such as resolving the constitution, dissolving parliament, and forming an advisory council to fill the parliamentary and constitutional void during the transitional period (often referred to as caretaker government) until there is an infrastructure for elections (the third phase) in light of approximately half of Syrians being outside the country, many of whom lack documentation, and there is a need for a comprehensive census and communication with expatriate communities.

Al-Sharaa stated that people have the right to choose who governs them and represents them in the parliament, and that no one can cancel the other in Syria, promising to attempt to reach a comprehensive social contract through dialogue that preserves sustainable security for Syrians, noting that governance in Syria will be proportional to the country’s culture and history, and that Syria will not be a copy of Afghanistan.

A meeting took place between the Commander of the General Command, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and businessmen in the capital, Damascus – December 19, 2024 (General Command)

Economy and people’s needs: Securing fuel as a priority

The economic and living conditions in Syria are among the most prominent challenges facing the caretaker government, especially amid years of production disruption and the deteriorating purchasing power of citizens.

It cannot be summarized in just a few lines what led to the deterioration of the economy during al-Assad’s rule since 2011, but certain laws enacted have directly contributed to impoverishing Syrians, while some measures did not prevent the decline in purchasing power.

Alongside many decisions, the issue of fuel shortages has crippled dozens of industrial and commercial establishments, paralyzed trade movement, negatively affected the supply in local markets, and driven up commodity prices beyond people’s ability to afford them.

In recent years, the ousted government resorted to liberalizing the prices of many commodities, most notably fuels, but did not accompany this action with significant salary increases that would help reduce the gap.

The Assistant Secretary-General of the United Nations and Director of the United Nations Development Program for Arab States, Dr. Abdallah al-Dardari, recently said that preliminary UN estimates indicate that the Syrian economy has lost 24 years of human development until now.

Dr. al-Dardari clarified that the GDP witnessed a significant decline from $62 billion in 2010 to only $8 billion in 2023, in his statement to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper on December 13.

Meanwhile, the poverty rate in Syria rose from 12% in 2010 to over 90% in 2023, with the food poverty rate exceeding 65% of the population, according to UN estimates.

Given these conditions, the caretaker government faces a tough challenge in bringing about positive changes that reflect on Syrians, amidst a lack of clear opportunities that could support its desire for change.

Towards a free economy

In the first ten days of assuming power in Syria, the caretaker government’s economic plan has not yet been made clear; however, it has canceled several decisions that burdened investors, a move considered by specialists to be a step in the right direction for economic activities recovery.

Among those prominent decisions were the cancellation of the “Import Financing Platform,” the cancellation of the practical guide for imports, allowing the import of all materials from all countries, the cancellation of all fees imposed on imports in addition to customs duties, the cancellation of the pricing system for locally produced and imported goods, as well as unifying the exchange rate with the prices published by the Central Bank of Syria (CBS), in addition to stopping the ban on trading in foreign currencies.

The head of the Damascus Chamber of Commerce stated that the caretaker government informed businessmen that it will adopt a model of free market and integrate the country into the global economy.

Market economy or free economy or capitalist economic system allows individuals to engage in any economic activity they desire and start any project, as well as the freedom to contract between individuals and institutions, without state intervention in this matter, meaning that the state lets the market self-regulate without interference in economic activities.

Having a free market economy does not imply the absence of the state and the public sector in organizing economic life within the community, because a free economy can lead to monopolization by some institutions and individuals in the market through product monopolization. Hence, the concept of “social economy” emerged, which lies between capitalism and socialism, and the state seeks through it to achieve balance and equality among the citizens, granting rights to the middle and lower classes.

The free economy policy is based on liberalizing the economy and connecting prices to the supply and demand of goods, without intervention from the state, as is the case in the centralized socialist system.

An economics professor at the University of Damascus, Dr. Suleiman Mousalli, said to Enab Baladi that Syria has suddenly transitioned from an economy of the few to a market economy, clarifying that this transformation should be accompanied by gradual and appropriate procedures to allow the market to regain its balance.

Dr. Mousalli further explained that among those measures should not be a staggering salary increase of 300% all at once, but rather gradually, for example, 100% each year, and not allowing the importation of cars at this stage as it would drain the limited foreign currency.

There should also be selective customs duties imposed on luxury goods and campaigns launched to attract foreign investments in the form of shareholding companies, according to the economist’s viewpoint.

Salaries or subsidies: Which comes first?

The shift towards a free economy will eliminate the system of commodity subsidies, which was evident immediately after the government assumed its responsibilities. This was accompanied by the cancellation of the “smart card” that people used to purchase a bundle of bread for 500 Syrian pounds, leading to the liberalization of prices, with the bread bundle now selling for more than 2000 Syrian pounds.

Although several experts do not encourage the continuation of the commodity subsidy system, halting it without parallel economic measures may further impoverish people and deteriorate their purchasing power.

In recent days, al-Sharaa promised a salary increase of 400% from the current salaries, without specifying when or how this would be implemented. He was preceded by promises from Mohammed al-Bashir of a 300% increase.

Economic researcher Khaled Turkawi told Enab Baladi that the priorities for the caretaker government at this stage should focus on bread, fuel, and raising salaries.

Turkawi added that the high poverty rates make bread an essential component for every family as a comprehensive food item.

He explained that improving access to fuel in Syria at this stage is important, as it drives factories, transport, food security, warmth for families, and improves electricity access, among other sectors that are largely built on fuel.

The economic researcher believes that the issue of raising salaries is significant in this context, especially if the increase is substantial as discussed (around 400%), as this would enhance citizens’ purchasing power, making them more capable of acquiring their basic necessities.

He thinks that increasing salaries could quickly and significantly revitalize the country’s economy, as these salaries would be spent in markets, increasing demand for various goods, thus enhancing productive movement.

“Salary increases can be postponed”

In addition to ensuring civil peace for citizens, the caretaker government must also secure the minimum living requirements for the people, according to economic researcher Radwan al-Dibs.

Al-Dibs agrees with Turkawi that the energy and fuel sector is among the top priorities, as it supports all productive sectors. The availability of fuel leads to a supply of electricity, water, agriculture, production, operational bakeries, transportation, and more.

Regarding the issue of salary increases, al-Dibs considers it premature to discuss this step, especially during the three months following the caretaker government’s assumption of its responsibilities.

He justified his view by stating that Syria had been engulfed in deep corruption and serious economic problems due to looting and theft, making it difficult for the state budget to bear the burden of significantly increasing salaries, which it cannot afford in the first place.

The researcher pointed out that the government’s current ability to combat the monopolization of goods by traders and improve the prices of some commodities could help people secure their basic needs without overburdening them.

12.9 million suffer from food insecurity

On December 12, the World Food Programme (WFP) reported that $250 million in funding is needed in the upcoming months in Syria to meet humanitarian needs.

Ken Crosley, director of the WFP in Syria, stated that during this critical period Syria is undergoing, World Food Programme teams are on the ground to ensure that the most vulnerable people in the country receive the urgent food assistance they need.

Crosley added, “Currently, commercial supply routes are at risk, food prices have risen, the value of the Syrian pound has declined, and essential commodities such as rice, sugar, and oil have become scarce, while the prices of bread have increased, making it crucial to intensify our efforts to help during this winter season.”

According to the World Food Programme, about 12.9 million people were experiencing food insecurity at the beginning of this year, including three million suffering from severe food insecurity, while humanitarian aid has significantly decreased due to funding shortages.

Leader of the General Command in Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, with military personnel from the Syrian factions – December 21, 2024 (General Command)

Political files on the table.. Sanctions and terrorism classification under scrutiny

Numerous files are on the caretaker government’s table in the next three months, amidst efforts to overcome some obstacles that hinder its work, primarily the lifting of Western sanctions imposed on Syria under al-Assad’s rule and the classification of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a major opposition group on the terrorism list.

The United States, the European Union, and other countries imposed economic and political sanctions on the Assad regime and its affiliates since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011, in response to human rights violations and the bloody crackdown that followed the revolution.

After the fall of the Assad regime, al-Sharaa repeatedly called for the lifting of Western sanctions on Syria, asserting that all restrictions need to be removed for the country to rebuild, claiming that the sanctions were imposed on “the tyrant who has now departed.”

Removing HTS from terrorism lists.. Washington lays out its cards

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the General Command in Syria, called for the removal of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from the terrorism lists. In an interview with the BBC, al-Sharaa emphasized that the HTS is not a terrorist group and that it has not targeted civilians or civilian areas, but has been a victim of al-Assad’s crimes.

The commander of the military wing of Tahrir al-Sham, Murhaf Abu Qasra, nicknamed “Abu Hassan al-Hamawi,” called for deleting the HTS and its leader from the list of terrorists associated with groups and individuals.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the spearhead of the factions that participated in the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation, has refrained from officially declaring itself or appearing as a military faction since November 27, with its entire operations falling under the work of Military Operations Administration and the caretaker government in Damascus.

Despite the various names, from al-Nusra Front to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the faction is still classified as a terrorist group by the US and several other countries. However, this is under consideration and depends on behavioral changes, as Washington has shown a different tone towards the faction and its leader.

The United States still designates Abu Mohammad al-Jolani as a global terrorist since May 2013 but recently stopped monitoring a $10 million reward for information about him, which it had offered since 2020.

On December 20, Washington held its first official talks with al-Sharaa, via a meeting between him and US Assistant Secretary of State Barbara Leaf, US Ambassador Roger Carstens, and Ambassador Daniel Rubinstein in Damascus, marking the first visit by US diplomats to the Syrian capital since 2012.

The US official did not clarify whether Washington would also lift al-Sharaa’s name from the terrorism list.

Leaf stated in a virtual press conference attended by Enab Baladi that al-Sharaa is a pragmatic individual, and “I have heard him make very practical and moderate statements on issues regarding women and equal rights, and discussions with him have been very good and fruitful.”

She added that her country supports a Syrian-led political process that leads to an inclusive government that respects the rights of all, with discussions covering several points:

  • The need to ensure that terrorist groups cannot pose a threat to Syria, and Ahmed al-Sharaa committed to that.
  • The US will provide technical support to Syria to document the crimes of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, with a priority for mass graves.
  • The United States is considering sanctions, and “the new Syrian government must be responsive and show progress.”
  • Washington is working on sending additional US officials to Damascus to help search for US citizens.

Leaf welcomed the positive messages but is looking forward to progress on these principles through actions, not just words, pointing out that engaging with Syrians and listening to them directly represented an important opportunity, and they have a rare chance to rebuild and reshape their country.

In this context, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged the new authorities in Syria to learn from the experience of the Taliban Movement in Afghanistan, or else they would face “isolation worldwide,” a claim that al-Sharaa denied, saying that “Syria is a different model.”

Blinken noted that the “emerging group in Syria,” if it does not want isolation, must advance the country and ensure moving forward in an inclusive and non-sectarian manner to address the need for protecting minorities and tackling some security challenges, whether they are chemical weapons or groups like the Islamic State.

In an analysis published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, it was noted that a particular group could be removed from the terrorism list if the US Secretary of State decides that the original circumstances that led to the designation have changed sufficiently to justify its cancellation, or that US national security interests justify its removal.

It was mentioned that lifting these sanctions is essential to grant the post-Assad Syrian leadership a chance to build a different type of government and country, but any delisting from the terrorism list, whether at the state, group, or individual level, must be based on merit, not granted as a favor.

What about the classification of other countries?

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan urged Western countries to reconsider the classification of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham on terrorism lists, indicating that his country will also reassess this classification.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp stated that it is still too early to lift sanctions, stressing that any step toward tolerance should be conditional.

Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares Bueno called for dialogue with the new administration in Syria before thinking of lifting sanctions, emphasizing the need to establish red lines that define the country’s future.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen asserted that broad-based economic sanctions against Syria could be reconsidered if the new leadership makes progress toward a comprehensive and democratic transition of power.

Russia, the main ally of the ousted Syrian regime, which intervened militarily in Syria since September 2015, stated that it would begin an assessment regarding the removal of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham from the terrorism list.

Dr. Mahmoud al-Hamza, an expert on Russian affairs, believes that Moscow’s statements aim to positively influence Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the new Syrian government to gain its favor and build a good relationship with it, as the Russian presence in Syria is related to negotiations with the new government in Damascus.

 

For there to be cooperation with the new Syrian government, I think that Russia must offer initiatives and show goodwill, such as providing humanitarian aid, and most importantly, handing over Bashar al-Assad to the Syrian government, as this is a popular demand. If Moscow ignores this request, it will affect its relationship with the caretaker government.

Dr. Mahmoud al-Hamza, Russian affairs expert

 

Al-Hamza expects that Russia will procrastinate significantly in removing Tahrir al-Sham from the terrorism list until it receives guarantees from the new government regarding its presence in Syria. The evidence for this is that Russia has been claiming for a year that it will remove the Taliban from the terrorism list, but it has not done so despite its direct communication with the movement.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, in the Citadel of Aleppo after its capture – December 4, 2024 (Military Operations Administration)

The AANES dilemma.. Lack of diplomatic experience

One of the most prominent internal political and security challenges is dealing with the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) and its military wing, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control areas in northeastern Syria. This is the matter that the General Command and the caretaker government are addressing.

Two days after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, expressed readiness to communicate with the new authority in Damascus, emphasizing the need to represent all regions and components through dialogue.

AANES launched an initiative for dialogue with the General Command, which has taken the reins of administration in the capital, Damascus. On December 16, they stated that cooperation would be in the interest of all Syrians and would contribute to facilitating the exit from this phase.

The US supports the SDF and considers it a partner in the fight against the Islamic State group, while Ankara considers the SDF a terrorist group and an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Calls for dialogue with the caretaker government coincided with AANES raising the flag of the Syrian revolution over all councils, institutions, administrations, and facilities under its control in areas it governs.

In contrast, the military wing commander of Tahrir al-Sham, Murhaf Abu Qasra, stated that the areas controlled by AANES would be incorporated into the caretaker government in Damascus, asserting that “Syria will not be fragmented, nor will there be federations,” as he expressed.

During a meeting with journalists, al-Sharaa stated that Kurds are part of the homeland, have suffered great injustice, and are an essential part of the future Syria. He emphasized the necessity of cohabitation and that every individual should receive their rights through the law, pointing to new regulations and a new history in Syria.

Badr Mulla Rashid, director of the Raman Studies Center, considered that the possibility of AANES playing a role in the new Syrian government depends on several factors, including the caretaker government’s position over the next three months. So far, Ahmed al-Sharaa’s approach has orbited around openness to individual initiatives while avoiding political and military allocation as much as possible.

Mulla Rashid added to Enab Baladi that if the new government wishes to enhance its political legitimacy and strengthen internal security and stability, it will move in the coming phase to change its approach to facilitate the inclusion of other parties in something resembling a general assembly. This is related to AANES severing all ties with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and accepting the idea of equal participation. Only then will it be able to engage more flexibly within the political and governmental interactions in Damascus.

Mulla Rashid sees that the real dilemma facing the caretaker government soon will be the shared governance with AANES and the form its approach will take regarding the duties and rights of the various ethnicities, religions, and sects in Syria, which are abundant in AANES regions of northeastern Syria.

Political maturity

Following the launch of the “Deterrence of Aggression” battle, the Political Affairs Administration of the opposition factions issued a series of statements that conveyed reassuring messages to various sects and religions in Syria, as well as messages to the outside world.

One of the most prominent messages is that the Syrian people are seeking to build positive relationships based on mutual respect and common interests with all countries of the world, including Russia, considering it a “potential partner” in building a bright future for Syria.

After the fall of al-Assad, Syria witnessed diplomatic activity as some countries reopened their embassies in Damascus, while others announced their intention to do so soon. The Political Affairs Administration also announced the appointment of three people to be responsible for the diplomatic file and for the embassies’ work inside Syria.

Former Syrian diplomat Danny al-Baaj considered in an interview with Enab Baladi that the statements made by the caretaker government indicate a political awareness and maturity, a high level of political responsibility, and an understanding of the nature of the country and the upcoming phase, especially the reassuring statements towards minorities and the confirmation of the non-retaliation against Assad’s followers. These statements served as a cornerstone for the transitional political phase.

Al-Baaj added that despite the political maturity shown by the caretaker government in terms of the statements released, there was a lack of diplomatic experience. During the recent UN Security Council session, the Syrian government had an important opportunity to write a statement to be delivered by its ambassador Qusay al-Dahhak, which would reflect the vision of the first free Syrian government, its plans, and its position on Resolution “2254” and political transition, which would contribute to laying the first stone for the new government to assert its voice on the international stage.

Steps from al-Sharaa and other countries

Researcher in Islamic movements affairs, Orabi Orabi, believes that the current phase (three months) requires the establishment of a transitional governing body to draft a constitution, approve elections, and follow up with subsequent steps.

Orabi stated in an interview with Enab Baladi that a significant part of the next three months will be related to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as it is a central figure in the current equation. He emphasized that discussions with al-Sharaa (al-Jolani) are crucial to ensuring Syria’s security and stability.

Orabi sees the necessary steps that al-Sharaa must take during this period to include:

  • Inclusion of minorities and expanding the representation of parties in the transitional body.
  • Handing over some wanted individuals to their countries.
  • Preventing the emergence of a new group similar to the Islamic State in Syria.
  • Dialogue with the SDF in a manner conducive to preventing division, possibly under American oversight.
  • Structuring the army in a way that ensures balance within Syria without the army expressing the color of a particular sect.
  • Not allowing an Iranian corridor on Syrian territory, which is already an established fact for the Syrian people and the government, but remains a requirement that should be heeded.

Orabi emphasized the importance of maintaining three principles that al-Sharaa will not compromise on either domestically or internationally during this phase, which are complete independence for Syria, the absence of any entity operating within Syria, and regarding the SDF, they should either be part of the new administration or face subsequent confrontation.

Among the principles, according to Orabi, are the recognition and support of the upcoming government, non-interference in its internal affairs, and supporting Syria in the matter of reconstruction, which requires lifting Tahrir al-Sham from the terrorism classification.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the commander of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in the city of Aleppo after taking control of it, December 4, 2024 (Military Operations Administration)

Accountability for criminals and the weapon problem

The “Deterrence of Aggression” operation was accompanied by statements of a security and military nature, beginning with a call for personnel and officers to defect from the regime forces, lay down their arms, avoid bloodshed, and leave cities and military sites safely. It ended with settlement operations and the issuance of temporary cards to facilitate movement.

The Military Operations Administration prohibited the firing of shots into the air and assaulting public institutions and their properties, and demanded the return of property taken from civil and military institutions, as well as the withdrawal of military presence from some cities, including Aleppo.

Two days after the fall of the regime, al-Sharaa said that the Military Operations Administration would not hesitate to hold accountable the criminals, killers, and security and army officers involved in torturing the Syrian people. It would request their extradition from the countries they fled to until they receive their just punishment. Moreover, it would issue the first list, which includes the names of senior individuals implicated in torture, and announced his intention to dissolve the security forces affiliated with the ousted Assad regime and close notorious prisons.

These statements did not prevent instances of chaos, theft, and killing and liquidation of some violators or “shabiha.” Isolated cases emerged, and residents called for the need to restore security, especially in the Syrian coast, which witnessed, on December 14, the killing of three personnel from the Military Operations Administration following a clash with a family accused of theft in the town of al-Muzayra in the Latakia countryside.

Former diplomat Danny al-Baaj called on the caretaker government to control the field executions that occurred recently, targeting individuals known for committing crimes against Syrians. He pointed out that before executing or trying them, their testimonies should be heard and documented. Even after hearing their testimonies, they must remain in detention until further testimonies are collected and information is correlated to reach real evidence that would assist in prosecuting all criminals.

Before becoming a caretaker government, the Salvation Government in Idlib had a Police College and a model of the General Security Service, which was renamed General Security Administration. As factions progressively took control of cities, the Ministry of Interior announced the opening of enrollment for “police – general security” through joining the “Police College – Individual Course” in centers it established in the cities of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Damascus, Latakia, and Tartus.

In a video recording, and in response to a question about mandatory recruitment, al-Sharaa stated that he was studying the matter preliminarily, and there would be a volunteer army, as there was a large turnout, and there was no need to increase the burden on Syrians with the “nightmare of mandatory conscription.” However, in cases of severe danger, there might be a mandatory recruitment period lasting 15 to 20 days for general mobilization.

Colonel Mustafa Bakour, the official spokesperson for the Army of Glory, one of the factions of the Military Operations Administration, stated in an interview with Enab Baladi that settling the status of soldiers, disarming criminals, and holding them accountable are good steps towards achieving security and stability in Syria. However, these steps should be complemented by reinstating defected soldiers to positions where they can provide their services and expertise to the new state, especially those who did not leave Syria and engaged in military work against al-Assad’s forces, as they are considered more passionate about the country’s future than those who fought with the regime until the last moment.

Bakour added that the main threats to security and stability are complacency in addressing attempts to incite unrest and agitation by remnants of the previous regime and those affected by its downfall. He emphasized that the rebuilding process must encompass all segments of Syrian society, especially the children of the Syrian revolution.

Bakour believes that the current government recognizes the need to give special importance to the security and military situation and expects significant effort and activity towards unifying factions and establishing a Ministry of Defense that includes all soldiers from both the factions and those who haven’t stained their hands with blood from the remnants of the previous regime’s army. This would have a positive impact on both the security and military levels.

 

During the current period, it is essential to maintain the material and structural integrity of the army, which can be reorganized relying on elements of the factions and soldiers undergoing settlement who have proven not to be tainted with blood. However, dissolving the army and rebuilding it anew poses significant risks and could lead to a large security and military imbalance, potentially undermining the achievements of the revolution realized over the past years.

Colonel Mustafa Bakour, Official spokesperson for the Army of Glory

 

Success depends on local-international harmony

In the first 90 days and beyond, all possibilities remain open for forming the nucleus and the cornerstone of a state whose features or shape have not yet become clear, amidst the presence of internal players acting and others waiting for their role, and external parties that have always had their weight and interests in the Syrian file, laying down their conditions for cooperation with the “new Syria,” and an economic, living, and security reality less complex than it seemed before the fall of the Assad regime.

Former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt considered that the focus of opposition factions (Military Operations Administration) on building and maintaining state institutions shows they are well aware of the risks involved, according to a report published on The Strategist website.

To avoid some risks and begin the path forward in Syria, Bildt believes that Syrians must take the lead, but with external assistance, stating that the humanitarian situation in Syria is horrific and requires immediate attention, and the European Union and the United States must make it clear to all concerned parties that they are willing to lift the economic sanctions imposed on Syria in support of the political transition.

Bildt believes that the anticipated process in Syria will be long and complex, as governance in Syria has never been simple, and if any of the major players (local, regional, or international) pursue their own unilateral agenda, the situation could deteriorate rapidly.

He considered that the UN process represents the best way forward, giving the organization a chance to demonstrate to the world that it is still indispensable in such situations, as Resolution “2254” forms the cornerstone of international diplomatic efforts to resolve the Syrian conflict, providing a clear roadmap for a Syrian-led political transition under a new constitution, with elections overseen by the UN and measures to ensure inclusive governance.

Steven Heydemann, head of Middle Eastern Studies at Smith College, noted that there are several steps the United States can take that could positively impact the ongoing transition in Syria, including:

  • Lifting some of the economic sanctions imposed on the Assad regime, which would mean a huge boost for the Syrian economy, especially during these critical early stages of the transition process.
  • Playing a role in helping Syrians recover their assets and retrieve some of the billions of dollars illegally stolen by Bashar al-Assad and his allies over his years in power.
  • Supporting Syrian efforts to hold accountable those who participated in war crimes.
  • Washington’s willingness to invest in reconstruction, as a way the United States could contribute to a smooth transition in Syria.

The arrival of residents from various areas to the historical Aleppo Citadel – December 12, 2024 (Enab Baladi/Walid al-Idlibi)

Documents of detainees and mass graves

One of the most pressing issues still awaiting action is the accountability of criminals involved in war crimes and violations against Syrians, and the necessity of preserving documents and evidence that the ousted regime has long tried to erase, while avoiding tampering with mass graves.

With the discovery of some mass grave sites, several individuals have gathered at these locations, driven by the need to search for their loved ones by identifying them through their clothing or features, while the movements of the de facto authorities or international, UN, or local organizations appeared almost absent, as journalists and activists were not barred from entering, rendering the unorganized search efforts futile, lacking any scientific or medical methodology.

Several statements and declarations have been issued on the necessity of accountability, including holding accountable the criminals, murderers, and security and military officers involved in torturing the Syrian people, alongside subjecting all war correspondents who were part of the war machine and propaganda for the ousted president Bashar al-Assad to fair trials.

Former diplomat Danny al-Baaj emphasized that the caretaker government must promptly invite human rights organizations to Syria to address the chaotic handling of documents that were present in the Sednaya prison and security branches, as well as mass graves, noting that any delay hinders accountability.

Al-Baaj remarked that despite the rational and mature political discourse from the caretaker government, there has been a lack of experience and competence in dealing with the file of accountability for criminals and the documents and evidence linked to corpses and detainees.

He urged the new government to secure mass grave sites and prevent access to them, pointing to the necessity of studying the soil layers to verify how many times the same location has been used for burying detainee corpses, as it is possible that the bones may have mixed, requiring precise DNA testing, which are important and sensitive matters that should be part of the government’s plan in the upcoming period.

On his part, Mohammad al-Abdallah, director of the Syria Justice and Accountability Center (SJAC), stated that tampering in this manner with mass grave sites in Syria constitutes a violation of crime scenes and obscures evidence, complicating the efforts of those searching for the missing and the specialists responsible for identifying the victims buried in these graves.

Al-Abdallah told Enab Baladi that the caretaker government should provide protection for these graves, even if armed security is necessary, enclosing the graves with barbed wire or barriers to prevent access, in addition to prohibiting the publication of their locations.

He clarified that media coverage or activists filming these grave sites directly should be prohibited, emphasizing that several activists or media channels are photographing the process of exhuming graves directly, which violates the dignity of the deceased and incites people to go to the site and exhume the graves.

Al-Abdallah stressed that these graves should not be opened or approached without forming either a national committee to search for the missing, which would include among its tasks the exhumation of mass graves, or starting an organized effort overseen by the Ministry of Justice in the caretaker government, similar to what occurred in Iraq, Erbil, and the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

 

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