How experts view calls for a national conference in Syria

Enab Baladi – Jana al-Issa

Local and international eyes are turning towards the Syrian capital, Damascus, where a national dialogue conference is set to be held, while the new Syrian administration remains tight-lipped regarding details about the timing of the conference, the invited parties, the agenda, and the outcomes it will yield.

The leader of the new Syrian administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, stated in a televised interview with Al-Arabiya channel on December 29 that the national dialogue conference will witness broad participation from various segments of Syrian society, with issues set for voting such as the parliament and constitution resolutions.

Al-Sharaa added that the conference will include a set of decisions that all attendees will participate in making, as it will explain all the facets of the Syrian issue and then leave the decision to the participants who will vote on the important and sensitive issues that will establish the transitional phase.

However, ambiguity remains regarding the conference’s goal and the decisions to be made during it, raising concerns about the inability to assess its results, whether it has achieved its intended purpose or not.

Enab Baladi seeks the opinions of experts and specialists on the criteria that should be met in the upcoming conference and the main decisions it should include.

Ambiguity amid a complex scene

Dr. Rahaf al-Doughli, a professor of political science at Lancaster University, believes it is crucial to first clarify the purpose of this conference and whether it will focus on discussions about the future shape of the state, outlining steps and vision for the current representation in the caretaker government, or discussing the transition to a transitional government after the three-month term of the caretaker government ends.

Al-Doughli stated in an interview with Enab Baladi that there must be transparency and clarity in understanding the desired goal of this conference.

 

In my opinion, it is important to highlight that holding a national conference after the end of the war carries significant symbolism in the political transition process and in creating a narrative for a national identity that reflects the aspirations of all Syrian components.

Dr. Rahaf al-Doughli

 

Al-Doughli believes that the conference being discussed may not answer all these questions and cannot do so due to the complexities of the political and regional scene.

She thinks that a national conference cannot be held while the military situation remains undisciplined amid calls to dissolve factions and merge; it remains unclear how these factions will dissolve themselves and accept disarmament. This applies not only to the armed factions in As-Suwayda and southern Syria and northeastern Syria but also to the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA).

It is essential that we are precise about our aspirations for this conference and its nomenclature; therefore, it is better to refer to it as a preparatory conference, and it should include the election of a preparatory committee responsible for inviting a national conference after about three months. It is a mistake to label the upcoming conference as national, as it must be preceded by proper groundwork and clear objectives before its holding. These elements are all absent, according to Dr. Rahaf al-Doughli.

Representative for each entity

Former diplomat and senior fellow at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, Danny al-Baaj, stated that determining what outputs should come from this conference necessitates addressing the invitations and the individuals that should be present.

Al-Baaj explained in an interview with Enab Baladi that if the goal of the conference is to launch or manage the transitional phase, it is expected to have representatives from technocrats, as well as representatives from all Syrian political and social forces that can carry this transitional phase socially and politically.

On the other hand, if the conference aims to gather Syrians simply for the sake of representation, it may yield no noteworthy results. According to previous experiences, such as in Afghanistan, similar conferences may produce executive committees to manage the transition process, draft the constitution, and address related issues, according to al-Baaj.

 

In the current Syrian context, there are two key gains: first, our ability to prevent international intervention and second, the capacity to undertake a purely Syrian transitional process with Syrian ownership and management. Therefore, no existing political party on the ground should be excluded from this conference.

Former diplomat Danny al-Baaj

 

Al-Baaj added that it would be more beneficial to achieve real results for the conference to be small-scale but with true representation of social and political forces and emerging parties, allowing for only one representative per entity. Thus, the number of attendees should range from 150 to 200 individuals, including technocrats with a long-standing history in constitutional, political, or administrative frameworks.

Al-Baaj agrees on the necessity of having broad representation of women within the conference; at least one-third of the attendees should be women.

We seem to be heading towards a very large conference based on what is being reported through media channels, which means it will take place, and from there, executive committees, small committees, and drafting committees will emerge to describe how matters will unfold during the transitional period, according to al-Baaj.

Four essential outputs

For his part, political researcher and director of research at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, Maan Talaa, believes that the upcoming national conference must be seen not only as a political entitlement but as a legal, constitutional, and security requirement. The implications of the void or absence of constitutional framing for the new Syria are severe, making this conference a national necessity that ranks high on the agenda for the coming phase.

Talaa confirmed in an interview with Enab Baladi that the call for this conference is essential to frame these issues, maintain the unity of Syrian territory, and enforce stricter measures regarding the security situation in the country.

In terms of the technical criteria for invitations, the conference should reflect the social fabric of Syrian society. Here, there are two criteria: the geographical and ethnic criterion, and the criterion of bodies and political formations representing these areas.

Talaa believes that the clarity of the conference’s agenda will not result in significant changes, but it can be considered a starting point for a continuing discussion that requires an environment conducive to a sound and healthy dialogue.

 

The topic of the scheduled national conference will remain subject to ongoing criticism, as there are institutional frameworks for forming such dialogues that do not seem to exist today, the foremost being the establishment of a founding committee tasked with setting criteria for participation in this dialogue and others.

Political researcher Maan Talaa

 

According to Talaa, the conference should yield four main issues, the first of which is constitutional amendments or a temporary constitutional declaration that grants the current authority some constitutional powers to frame legal and judicial files.

It could also propose the dissolution of the Baath Party as it is the most dominant entity in the state and sever ties with it. Additionally, the conference may call for foundational committees to address several issues, primarily focusing on a national program for accountability and transitional justice, as well as a series of legal reforms regarding party and election laws.

The conference should also call for continued discussions on developing mechanisms and criteria for the functioning of the transitional government, which will commence its operations after March 2025, as previously announced.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the new Syrian administration, clarified that many political stages will precede choosing a president, indicating that drafting a new constitution for the country may take about three years, and organizing elections may also require four years.

Al-Sharaa stated that elections will not be possible without establishing appropriate infrastructure, including accurate statistics and legal communication with Syrian communities abroad, noting that the country is currently in a phase of rebuilding the law.