Enab Baladi – Jana al-Issa
On December 12, the US House of Representatives approved the National Defense Authorization Act for 2025, which includes an extension of the US sanctions imposed on Syria under the Caesar Act for an additional five years.
The bill has not yet been officially adopted, as it awaits the signature of the US president next year, and its approval by the House of Representatives is not considered an official endorsement that allows for the immediate application of its provisions.
The extension occurred three days after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his escape to Moscow, despite being based on his violations in the field of human rights.
Before Assad’s fall, the Syrian lobby in the United States intensified its efforts to ensure the continuation of sanctions against the regime. However, his fall just 11 days after the start of the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation launched by Syrian opposition factions changed the equations, and those pushing for the extension are now trying to convince the Americans to lift the sanctions on Syria.
The American side, in turn, has not appeared to consider ending the sanctions in the near future, which some view as an obstacle to Syrian recovery, arguing that it should be removed along with its causes.
To pressure the former regime
The Caesar Act is a legislative measure approved by the US House of Representatives on November 15, 2016, and signed by former President Donald Trump on December 21, 2019.
The act stipulates punishing anyone who provides support to the Syrian regime and obligates the US president to impose sanctions on Assad’s allied countries.
The act targets anyone providing military, financial, or technical support to the Syrian regime, including companies, individuals, and countries, up to and including Russia and Iran, and it aims at those providing reconstruction aid in Syria.
The act is named after the Syrian defector who leaked 55,000 photos of 11,000 prisoners who were killed under torture in 2014, verified by the FBI, which captured global public attention at that time and was presented to the US Senate.
Positive outcomes expected soon
Former member of the American Coalition for Syria (ACS) Mohammed Alaa Ghanem told Enab Baladi that the Syrian-American lobby is engaged in sensitive negotiations with the US government regarding sanctions on Syria.
Ghanem clarified that soon, Syrians will hear positive news on this matter, declining to discuss additional details about the nature of the ongoing negotiations or the expected duration for the announcement of the cessation of US sanctions.
After the fall of the regime and Assad’s escape to Moscow, two US lawmakers, Rep. Joe Wilson and Rep. Brendan Boyle, wrote to the US administration urging them to ease the sanctions imposed on Syria.
The lawmakers called on the administration to maintain sanctions on former officials of the previous regime while suspending other parts of the Caesar Act, specifically those that blacklisted entire sectors of the economy and prevented reconstruction.
They added that there is a need for a deliberate and gradual approach to lifting sanctions and export controls imposed on Syria.
Anticipated economic opening
The likelihood of the US president, Donald Trump, signing the extension of the Caesar Act at the beginning of next year is nearly 100%, according to Dr. Karam Shaar, director of the Syrian program at the Observatory of Political and Economic Networks.
The US president can later decide to freeze the application of the Caesar Act; however, its cancellation would require a vote in the US Congress.
In a conversation with Enab Baladi, Shaar emphasized that lifting sanctions on Syria entirely and unconditionally is a pressing necessity, as the reasons that led the United States to impose the sanctions have completely ceased, leaving no legal or ethical justification for their continuation.
Regarding the nature of the challenges that the temporary government in Damascus may face if US sanctions are not lifted, Shaar clarified that the overall economic situation in the country will not be the same at all if the sanctions are removed.
The bottleneck that will lead to significantly different results is the practices of the caretaker government, should it decide to hold a genuine national conference rather than engage in merely formal paternalism and if it forms a committee representing the Syrians to draft a modern and civil constitution that includes all segments of the Syrian population; all sanctions, including those imposed on Ahmed al-Sharaa, will be headed for removal.
Dr. Karam Shaar, Expert on economic affairs
Following the lifting of sanctions, an economic opening will undoubtedly follow, and Syria will receive international support for reconstruction, as well as support from multilateral institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, according to Shaar.
The American investigative site “The Intercept” stated in a report published on December 13 that rebuilding Syria from the ashes of the destructive war will be a long road. However, for Syrians looking to provide relief to their fellow citizens and begin rebuilding a new Syria, there is a shortage of funds.
The report argued that there is one way for the West to assist Syrians in obtaining the necessary funds to attempt to shape a stable and prosperous future, which is to end US sanctions.
Prominent analyst at the International Crisis Group, Delaney Simon, stated that not considering easing sanctions at this time is akin to pulling the carpet out from under Syria at a time when it is trying to stand on its feet.
Simon affirmed the severe impact of sanctions on the Syrian economy, creating significant obstacles to trade.
The former US ambassador to Syria during Barack Obama’s presidency, Robert Ford, stated, “We do not know exactly what the future of Syria will look like, nor do we know if it will be just and respect the rights of minorities; however, it is still in its early stages.”
He added, “It seems to me that a gesture of lifting sanctions, especially those targeting the construction sector, would be a very good gesture.”
The US tries to understand
Former US State Department advisor, Hazem al-Ghabra, agrees that there is a pressing necessity today to at least suspend or abolish the Caesar Act imposed on the regime, which in turn has managed to circumvent these sanctions via assistance from its allies.
Al-Ghabra indicated in a conversation with Enab Baladi that the Caesar Act poses problems for the new Syrian government that it cannot circumvent, noting that there is awareness within the US administration regarding the existence of a problem in this regard and a growing effort to understand the new government and where things are heading in Syria.
Al-Ghabra affirmed the urgent economic need that does not only consist of aid but also involves allowing major companies and countries to assist in economic recovery, a matter that could be hindered by the continuation of the Caesar Act.
The United States must be very clear about what it wants to see from the new Syrian administration, with its reservations on the matter. Meanwhile, the Syrian administration should present its action plan clearly, as al-Ghabra sees it, emphasizing that negotiations regarding the lifting of sanctions should be conducted directly between both parties, considering they are already in contact.