Anab Baladi – Yamen Moghrabi
Iraq is nearing an agreement with the United States to withdraw its forces, maintaining only a small contingent, within a timeframe starting in 2025 and ending by the end of 2026.
Talk of US troop withdrawal comes amid heightened political and military polarization in the region, with continued Israeli military operations against the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in occupied Palestine, and southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, on one hand, and ongoing activities of the Islamic State on the Iraq-Syria border, carrying out operations intermittently, on the other hand, and American forces in Iraq and Syria being targeted by militias calling themselves the Islamic Resistance.
As of the publication of this report, a full agreement has not yet been announced, but statements from American officials in recent days indicate a significant approach towards approval after years of serious discussions between the two sides, Iraqi and American.
Once initiated, this withdrawal will have a direct impact on several regional and local Syrian parties, primarily the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that control areas in northeast Syria, receiving American support that has repeatedly prevented the possibility of Turkish military intervention against them over the past years.
Infeasible amid polarization
The American newspaper, The Wall Street Journal, reported on September 20 that Baghdad and Washington have indeed reached an agreement for the withdrawal of US and International Coalition Forces from Iraq by the end of 2026.
It added that hundreds of these forces stationed in Baghdad and other areas in Iraq would start leaving by September 2025, followed by the withdrawal of forces in Erbil (the capital of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq) by the end of 2026.
The newspaper quoted a senior US administration official saying that the outlines of the withdrawal plan are complete, with some final details to be settled with other coalition members. It is likely that a small US advisory force will remain, providing logistical support to US forces stationed in Syria under a new bilateral security agreement.
Currently, there are 2,500 US soldiers in Iraq and 900 in Syria.
Ibrahim Kaban, director of the Geostrategic Network for Studies (based in Germany), told Enab Baladi that the withdrawal of US forces is linked to the conflict between Iran and the United Sttaes in Iraq, especially since the latter is a significant sphere of influence for Tehran, which supports militias there, with both sides balancing their presence in the country.
He added that Iran wants Iraq free of American presence, which seems obligatory due to regional circumstances, while there appears to be no consensus on this presence among Iraqi political factions, including Sunni, Kurdish, and Shia forces.
Kaban believes that Iraq needs forces not affiliated with Iran, which will fully control the country if the US withdraws. Thus, the withdrawal seems very difficult, and Iraqi forces are striving by all means to keep these troops in several military sites in Ramadi, Ain al-Assad, and Iraqi Kurdistan.
The plan revealed by The Wall Street Journal includes allowing Iraqi leaders to “claim they ended the presence of coalition forces,” but the forces will remain with the next US administration.
The US is set to hold presidential elections next October, with Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump competing.
The plan also allows US forces to use Iraq to support US forces in Syria.
Anas Shawakh, a researcher at the Jusoor Center for Studies, told Enab Baladi that several factors weaken the likelihood of US troop withdrawal from Iraq under current conditions.
According to the announced timeline, the withdrawal period spans almost two years, and during this long timeframe, field conditions may change with increased polarization in the region and the continued presence of the Islamic State, potentially leading to security breaches in Iraq that prompt coalition forces to mobilize and reschedule the withdrawal.
Shawakh added that the talk of withdrawal comes ahead of the US elections, increasing skepticism about the credibility of the move. It may be aimed at the American voter with a clear timeline for withdrawal, one of the important electoral cards the American parties rely on (withdrawing troops from overseas). Additionally, American interests and the possibility of other parties like Russia, China, or Iran exploiting this withdrawal, weakening Washington’s interests in Iraq.
How will the SDF be affected?
The SDF relies directly on American support to maintain its presence in northeastern Syria, while Washington has played a blocking role against any Turkish moves against it over the past years.
Even though the talk of US withdrawal from the region specifically concerns Iraq and does not include US forces in Syria, the presence of 2,500 soldiers and American military bases means significant support for the SDF in the event of any threats, especially amidst increasing talk of a forthcoming agreement between the Syrian regime and Ankara to end the presence of Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria.
Previously, Ankara signed a wide-ranging security agreement with Baghdad in April, followed by a visit by Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein to Ankara on August 15 to implement the signed agreements, including their security aspects.
Since the implementation of Turkey’s military operations “Operation Peace Spring” and “Operation Olive Branch” in Syrian territories in 2018 and 2019, Turkish officials have repeatedly threatened a third military operation targeting areas controlled by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).
Internal, regional, and international conditions, and the complexities of the Syrian file, played an important role in delaying the operation that Ankara had previously declared readiness to execute.
Based on this, the US withdrawal from Iraq will have a direct impact on the SDF and its presence, even with US forces remaining in Syria.
According to researcher Shawakh, the impact is naturally linked to the SDF’s assessment of the announced plan. If it assesses that this plan will indeed be executed, there will be a direct effect, especially since the second year (2026) will be allocated for the withdrawal of the last part of the forces linked to Operation Inherent Resolve responsible for operations in Syria and Iraq, headquartered in Erbil.
He added that the withdrawal would push the SDF to greater flexibility in its negotiations with local and regional parties like Turkey and the regime, especially with talk of a near negotiation round between the Kurdish National Council and the Democratic Union Party, and constant attempts by the latter to start new negotiations with the regime.
Thus, the SDF will show greater flexibility in dealing with the situation, potentially driving it to form new partnerships and agreements with the Russian side, seeking greater mutual interests and offering new services to ensure its survival and protection if US forces withdraw.
Meanwhile, Kaban, the director of the Geostrategic Network for Studies, noted that the US presence in the region directly contributes to protecting the SDF from Turkish threats and from the Syrian regime and Iranian militias.
Hence, the withdrawal will affect the SDF’s upcoming options, according to him, raising several questions about the feasibility of isolating the SDF from conflicting forces or making new deals to protect itself, while excluding the possibility of implementing the withdrawal agreement due to the current regional conditions and their circumstances.